Posted on 09/13/2002 7:59:37 AM PDT by vannrox
Well, hold on a sec here. I was listening to a doc from St. Vincent's hospital in NY, on Fox a little while ago. He says that an Iraqi defector in '97 said that Iraq had developed a particularly virulent form of WNV--and then the doc said "Interesting, but it shows up here in '99".
And then he said something else that caught me, that it could be they are testing to see how the regular form of it spreads, before they release the virulent strain...
Nice of the Iraqis to effectively vaccinate us all in advance before releasing the virulent strain, wasn't it?
Think cowpox.
Politicians do it, why not doctors?
It may well be. But why did it take over 150 years of commerce with the Mediterranean and North Africa to show up?
Twenty years ago, yours would have been the obvious answer. Today, though, we have to at least consider that there might be another explanation.
I don't particularly favor a terrorist explanation for WNV. But I don't dismiss it, either.
Here is a thread where the author claims WNV did come from Cuba: West Nile Virus: An Inside View
Luck of the draw? Easier to accidentally transport bugs (the vector) than birds (the source of the virus)?
You know, in the course of a little reading this morning, to find out the name of that danged beetle (I get all neurotic when I can't remember the name of something--it was the Asian Longhorn beetle :D) I came across some interesting information. Most mosquitos here are not native. We've been bringing 'em over for centuries.
The newest arrival is one I've been hearing about for a few years, from mr. h's fly-fishing buddies--the Asian Tiger Mosquito. It is believed to have arrived here in 1985 in a shipment of old tires. It has spread all over the country, is extremely aggressive, and is nearly impossible to eradicate. The bites are also much more painful. But it's also a known vector for some scarier things than West Nile--eastern equine encephalitis, Dengue fever, yellow fever, and (hang on to your puppies) dog heartworm.
There has not been an outbreak of Dengue, but the vector to spread it here is already well in place. All it would take is one person to catch it in the Carribean, come home, and get bitten by a mosquito who would then bite a few other people. There would be an outbreak with no terrorist involvement whatsoever.
Which is why I don't see the reason for suspecting terrorist involvement now. If they could find 19 people willing to die all at once in airplanes, and God only knows how many willing to blow themselves up one at a time, it should be no big deal to find 10-20 people willing to fly to a hot zone somewhere in the world, deliberately expose themselves to something really deadly like Ebola, and immediately fly to five major urban areas in the Unite States. You wouldn't need to spend years & a lot of money researching and planning.
As for the "trial run" theory, why bother with a stupid trial run? Release something that actually KILLS a lot of people, stand back and watch. Why would a trial run be necessary? To alert the enemy and give him time to figure out what you're doing and stop you?
Today, though, we have to at least consider that there might be another explanation.
I don't think we ever "have to" consider something that makes absolutely no sense and for which there is no evidence.
But just for the sake of argument here, I will play along. Okay. "WEST NILE COULD VERY WELL HAVE BEEN SENT BY EEEEEEEEEEEVIL (and very incompetent) IRAQI TERRORISTS!! AND THERE ARE RUMORS THAT SADDAM IS HOLDING THE REALLY BAD STUFF BACK for the time when he REALLY NEEDS TO SCARE US!!"
(Boy, this is hard for me to do even as an exercise)
So what is Leahy wanting to do about this awful possibility? Is it going to be added to the pile of reasons to invade Iraq, depose Saddam, and utterly destroy anything in the region that remotely looks like a bio-weapon?
NO! He wants to "investigate". He wants to "assess". He wants to "see exactly what we're dealing with". I heard parts of his comments yesterday, he even wants widespread testing of the population to see how many of us were infected asymptomatically! How much is THAT going to cost? What will be the cost of that cost, in terms of what we wouldn't be able to spend on something useful? What will be the cost of the time spent "waiting" while we "assess" what is essentially a non-threat?
And, for those on this thread that favor the ridiculous "trial run" theory, answer me this--If it was a trial run, and Saddam/Castro/whoever is just sitting back waiting to see how effectively mosquitos are spreading his little creation, WHY are you so willing to provide him with specific information on JUST HOW EFFECTIVELY IT HAS SPREAD, including into people who have shown no symptoms? Wouldn't a mountain of feedback from the "dress rehearsal" really help the guy out on "opening night"? Why are all of you, along with that sterling character Leahy, so willing to ensure that the terrorists get every possible fact and statistic that our taxpayer money can provide, as to the sucess or failure of their endeavor?
I would really like an answer to that. From someone.
"I would really like an answer to that. From someone."
I'm not involved in that particular argument, so you'll forgive me if I don't address it.
"WEST NILE COULD VERY WELL HAVE BEEN SENT BY EEEEEEEEEEEVIL (and very incompetent) IRAQI TERRORISTS!! AND THERE ARE RUMORS THAT SADDAM IS HOLDING THE REALLY BAD STUFF BACK for the time when he REALLY NEEDS TO SCARE US!!"
If I understand you correctly, your sole objection to even considering the possibility that WNV might represent an attempted terrorist attack is that it was ineffective? And, therefore, could not have been an "attack"?
Interesting about the Asian Tiger mosquito. Actually, I believe there was a very limited outbreak of dengue fever about ten years ago. In Florida, I think it was.
And, finally, may I reiterate what is the real significance of Leahy's remarks? Whether WNV was a terrorist attack or not is irrelevant. Instead, the mere fact that Leahy is prepared to consider them so is strong evidence that he has received information that the anthrax mailings were 9-11 and, thus, terrorist related.
I could care less what Leahy wants to do about WNV. What is important is why he believes WNV may be a bio-attack.
The same thing Donahue is doing by focusing attention on Al Quaida cells in the U.S. He and Leahy don't really give a rat's posterior about arresting suspected terrorists -- but right now, let's use everything in the arsenal, including WNV, to focus the fear of Americans on the enemy, real or imagined, within, so we won't want to go confronting a enemy from without that will truly annihilate us as we hide under our beds.
BTW, we've got plenty of crows in South Florida, (home of giant mosquitoes and fun-loving Muslim medical students), and yes, they're smart -- they even know how to vote. (The "late votes" are being flown into the precincts as we speak.)
You misunderstand. I object to considering it an attempted terrorist attack because there is absolutely no evidence that it was introduced delibereately or spread in any way other than naturally. But even people who believe it might have been a terrorist attempt will have to admit that, as terrorism, it has been remarkably ineffective. And there are so many EASY CHEAP and QUICK ways to do it very effectively.
Only hypochondriacs seem to be "terrorized" by this...
Actually, I believe there was a very limited outbreak of dengue fever about ten years ago. In Florida, I think it was.
I now it was somewhere in the South, but it occurred prior to the Tiger mosquito introduction. The articles I read talked about how health officials were really concerned about another outbreak, since the new mosquito could spread it very effectively.
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