Long on the U.S. Consumer --Mark’s Market Commentary

Capitalstool.com ^ | 8/20/02 | Mark

[arete]

The entire financial planet is now making a bet that the Magic Wand has repealed the business cycle, normal consumer spending cycles, real estate bubbles, and credit booms and busts.

You can have my credit cards when you pry them from my . . .

Richard W.

[arete]

FYI

Comments and opinions welcome.

Richard W.

[Moonman62]

The mixed race floor supervisor in the car stereo department at Best Buy (BBY), driving a leased Lexus GS430, with 20” custom wheels financed by Primerica, driving around with his overweight drama queen girlfriend with overprocessed hair and heavy makeup.

I guess mixed race people shouldn't get credit. I'm against PC, but the guy who wrote this is an A__HOLE.

[arete]

I guess mixed race people shouldn't get credit.

I think that he was merely painting a picture not making a statement on who should or should not get credit.

Richard W.

[Lael]

Talk about a gloom and doomer!!!

[technochick99]

Painting a picture or not, I found his 'sketches' to be quite offensive and condescending overall. Alienating an audience is not the best way to write. Makes me doubt his judgment overall.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

What's funny is, people like that actually exist. The author paints it like everybody lives that way, when the true number is alot smaller. It's no different than when I was in college 10 years ago.

OTOH, 'Sale Pending' and 'In Escrow' mean what they say they mean, and the author's interpretation was pretty hilarious. I've seen these signs for as long as I can remember, but now all of a sudden, they mean things are going down the tube.

Funny.

[arete]

Alienating an audience is not the best way to write

He's writing for the rough and tumble, irreverent and hardened traders who frequent "Capitalstool.com". It isn't sanitized like CNBC and isn't for everyone.

Richard W.

[Tauzero]

"What's funny is, people like that actually exist. The author paints it like everybody lives that way, when the true number is alot smaller."

Consider them the canaries in the coal mine.

[razorback-bert]

I am planning on picking up a Land Cruiser cheap at an auction. I just got in from driving 500 miles today and I saw plenty of very late models of trucks, suvs and cars for sale in parking lots. Haven't seen my Land Cruiser yet. I looked at riverfront property last week, too overpriced to suit me, the Realtor told me, but you can buy it with no money down and no closing cost and owner financing at 5%. Payday loan companies have sprung up like weeds. Christmas orders have been placed, yet no mention as to size.

Somebody tell me some good news!

[razorback-bert]

New formating rules bit me.

[LS]

OK.

1) Personal income rose last quarter.

2) U.S. Productivity rose last quarter (1.4%), which was well below 1st quarter (6.1%) but WAY above anything in recent years for a 6-month average.

3) New home apps are up

4) Unemployment steady. Very slight decrease in new jobless claims.

5) Inflation? What inflation. It is nearly zero!

6) Toys R Us has turned it around; Dell (as I recall) showed a profit; 98% of the major U.S. companies certified without a problem as to their books.

7) Gas is still extremely cheap.

8) East European markets---still the biggest NEW, viable markets in the world, are still wide open.

9) Tax cuts have not (yet) been repealed, so taxes will be slightly lower next tax season. and

(10) the Dow climbed back to almost 9,000, despite months of "talking down the economy" by the media and the Democrats. Consumer confidence remains pretty high.

That should perk you up, but I can probably give you ten more.

[Dukie]

"5) Inflation? What inflation. It is nearly zero!"

Not quite.

Monetary supply figures, M3 & MZM for instance, have been increasing.

[steve50]

The same people who claimed a budget surplus for the next thousand years or so do the inflation figures. I feel so much better.

[Dukie]

Hi Steve.

Same sort of thing as a trade deficit report which excludes petroleum products. Sometimes even economists forget - or ignore - the definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply.

[steve50]

You can't even get good figures on money supply, they've got M1, M2,M3.... . The more I try to understand the FED, the more I have to question the loyalities of those b@stards in 1913. I think they did more to destroy this nation than any foreign power ever could.

[LS]

We've had this debate on several threads. Take ANY measure of money, so far this year, and compare it to productivity. You have DEFLATION.

There is NO, I repeat, NO consistent sign in any of the traditional "thermometers" of inflation: oil prices, gold prices (which are up very slightly, and only over a very short period), or interest rates, which are at post-Depression lows.

When you have home mortgage rates at 6.7%, that, my friend, ain't inflation.

[arete]

When you have home mortgage rates at 6.7%, that, my friend, ain't inflation.

So corporate bond rates are?

Bankruptcies are?

Trade deficit is?

Private and public debt is?

Richard W.

[razorback-bert]

From the WSJ

Suit up: The look for fall is serious, sober and button-down -- at work and at play. With banker suits and librarian-length skirts, the $140 billion-a-year fashion industry is hoping to ride the new serious Zeitgeist that reflects everything from a shaky economy to just-yesterday's business scandals. This fall, the first season featuring clothes designed since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, retailers from Macy's to Men's Wearhouse are betting consumers will, finally, want to look grown up. The men's suits are gray, navy and pinstripe. Women's hemlines are, sedately, midcalf. And the neckties? They're Reagan-era red.

Will we see Walmart start selling suits?

[LS]

What is the "trade deficit" as a share of GNP?

What is the level of private debt as a share of private assets? Compared to where it was five years ago?

I don't think you want to hear those answers.