Posted on 08/18/2002 1:17:45 AM PDT by efnwriter
It is the single greatest way to defeat terrorism and permanently secure Israel.
Would alot of Americans and Israelis die as a result...yes.
Would America and Israel prevail...yes.
We could crush Arab militancy once and forever. Hisbollah, Islamic Jihad, the wahabbis, all of them erased. New Governments could be installed and oil would flow freely without the threat of embargo or sanction affecting the world market....because it is the World's market and not ours that takes the hit from Middle Eestern embargos...it isnt the 70's anymore.
Palestinians that werent wiped out by the Israelis would be forced to capitulate because they would no longer have support from outside souces....save the whining from Europe.
Unfortunately I dont believe the Arab Nations taken as a whole has the courage to stand up to the US militarily. So it'll probably be a slow drawn out process of removing Hussein and then strong arming the others. I have no problem with twisting any Arab nations wrist because in the end I believe what we want is correct and what they want is not. I'd rather let the eurowimps and Liberals ponder moralistic results. Iraq probably will try to pull something. Anything they could try to do in theatre is a waste of time and can be dealt with. Any missle launch would be defeated by either American Patriot missile systems or by the Israeli Sparrow systems [which are reported to be more effective].
Any Iraqi movement of troops and material is watched at all times and well considered. All Iraq can do practically is lay there and take it.
Are there a million and one scenarios possible....yes.
Do any of them lead to an Iraqi trump card....no.
China doesnt have the capability to intervene on any practical level and though far from certain it is highly unlikely that the Russians would flip given what they stand to lose in squaring up to the US Military.
The only real option for Hussein and the other Arab states is a Chemical/Biological/Nuclear attack on our major cities [New York City, Chicago etc, etc.] and Washington DC.
I would expect them to use diplomats or people with diplomatic immunity to pull it off. An attack with synergy in several different locations [LA, Houston, Miami, Indianapolis, Denver] would be the best option for Arab states. They wont face us Militarily but does anyone have real doubt that they are willing to use terrorists to attack us internally? 9/11 serves as an example and encouragement to embark on this sort of thing.
I do not know how possible this is or isnt as I am not competent to speak on the surveillance/security that surrounds Arab diplomats in this country or how well we monitor diplomatic pouches and shipments to the various embassies and UN.
In the end...anything done in the AO by Iraq is a waste of our time...and just drags things out. His defeat will be secured the moment George W. Bush makes the call.
Iran may play cute little games with Iraq and anyone else but reality is that right now their greatest threat is internal. They've imported Saudi and Iraqi brute squads to come in and crush interal revolt because regular Persian soldiers arent doing so with any zeal. The slightest hint of a serious American military intervention...for any reason...would bring about their fall quickly...they cannot be trusted as they are devout Muslims but they will try to walk upright in light of American presence in the Gulf region.
This is an instance where might actually does make right.
All of this is pure specualtion and opinion but it is more based on reality and practical ability then the original article written by efnwriter.
I hate to come off like the Pollyanna but you have to have basic ground rules to discussing what Iraq & Iran could do. Otherwise some guy could say that "Iran will launch rockets into space that will descend into American airspace before turning into a million small UAVs that home in on high concentrations of C02 and destroy American cities by lazer" and have an equal ammount of consideration.
That like the initial article written by efnwriter is completely impossible and not remotely practical.
I think it "could" get real nasty, I also think it "could" be a cakewalk but to look at either possibility I have to step off from reality.
Otherwise you get what you have in this thread...a bunch of branched out discussions that are built on a false foundation and by default are not plausible.
It's a waste of everyone's time and borders on being Liberalism 101..."the sky could actually fall, so let's freak out and get lost in fantasyland".
Don't get me wrong I hope Russia takes Iraq to the cleaners. Iraq will not exist as it does now within one year, bet on it.
I hope someday that Russia and her people become prosperous and the cultural leaders they once were.
The Muslim mind only cares about Jihad. Their own deaths are but another chapter in the multi-century old fight to convert the entire world to Islam. They don't care so much if they die as long as Israel goes first. This is particularly true with many of the clerics who have great enfluences over the masses.
This is not so worst case as you say. But Pentagon studies have presented scenarios where an America president would surrender to the Soviets to save American lives. I don't see it out of the realm of possibilities with any nuclear power.
One can point to the propaganda machines of the US military and say it could happen any time. But when you look at the effects it must be having on Saddam (to preempt an American attack), you can readily see that it should be coming real soon now. I just don't see Saddam as one who will keep playing a mind game with W.
The Muslim body has a different view of life versus death as was proven in Desert Storm when Olympic sprint records were shattered by thousands of Iraqi soldiers racing to surrender to the nearest reporter or camera man.
Cleric influence over the masses? Oh you mean like the Taliban influence over the masses in Kabul? Gee what ever happen to that influence? LOL! It doesn't exist when the guns are taken away from the clerics.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.