No Democratic Tide in November

U.S. News & World Report ^ | 8/12/02 | Michael Barone

[My2Cents]

So, taking Michael Barone's analysis into consideration, the election looks like a wash in the House (i.e., Republicans maintain a slim majority), and the possibility of a pick-up of two Republicans in the Senate (if Sununu wins over Smith for the GOP nominationin NH).

[goldstategop]

Yes it looks like Republicans will keep control of the House albeit by a few extra seats and U.S Senate control is pretty much up in the air. This will probably be a status quo election.

[strela]

You have to wonder if the Dems have another turncoat RINO senator in the hole, ready to play if the mid-term elections swing control back to the Republicans.

[My2Cents]

This is probably good news compared to the happy faces the Democrats are trying to put on their election prospects, but it's not as good as it could have been. The nation appears to still be evenly divided. Had the Repubicans had an ounce of competence among them, this could have been a election where the balance tipped significantly in their favor.

[My2Cents]

My bet's on Chaffee.

[TheBigB]

Don't forget McStain.

[goldstategop]

That's right. If Lincoln Chaffee ever figures he's in the wrong party, we're right back where we started.

[Saundra Duffy]

I am so poor you can't believe it, yet I sent $70 to Senator Bob Smith. I hope he kicks the crap out of that snot-nosed Sununu kid.

[strela]

Agree. He'd likely get the same mess of pottage that Jeffords got.

[goldstategop]

The Rats have effective control of the Senate since they can always count on at least four or five RINO votes to put them over the top. As it is the Rats would be in serious trouble if their numbers in the Senate dipped to about 40 seats and the problem is there's no chance of it happening anytime soon.

[HardStarboard]

>>>wonder if the Dems have another turncoat RINO senator in the hole<<<

McCain's already a turncoat - he just won't admit it yet!

[Oldeconomybuyer]

This will be the first post-911 election and I think conventional wisdom may fall apart. While I don't think President Bush will have long "coat tails", I do think that candidates who are seen bashing the President (the Carville strategy) will not be rewarded by voters. Therefore, if democrats think they have a winning strategy by simply bitching and blaming, I don't think they will do well in November.

Plus, I will never forget the faces of TV News talking heads on election eve 1994. NOBODY predicted the groundswell of support for the GOP Contract with America. In his own way, President Bush has an unwritten Contract with the American people and most folks seem to like his style and trust his leadership.

Barone may be a good pundit, but inside the beltway types generally aren't mentally able to judge "red state" post-911 attitudes. IMHO.

[Ole Okie]

You have to wonder if the Dems have another turncoat RINO senator in the hole,

Well, color me cynical, but I'm afraid that the infamous 900/1200/1500 lost Craig Livingstone FBI files may yet come into play AGAIN. One of the Democrat rats in the White House was supposed to have been seen putting them on his computer.

I sincerely hope there are no more blackmailable/non-blackmailable turncoats on the horizon.

[Michael Barnes]

They do...And for the life of me I can't remember the little pukes name. It was shortly after Jeffords jumped ship, there was speculation about Zell Miller running around rampant. This RINO puke was on the news and said (not the exact words), but basically, if the power shifted back to the Republicans, the RINO puke would jump ship to "keep everything even in the Senate"...I doubt highly I could find it here on FR, or the 'net for that matter..I just recall hearing that distinctly and wondering why the party didn't simply kick him out..

[Michael Barnes]

OH! I think that was him....

[ElkGroveDan]

Let's not leave out Olympia Snowe

[My2Cents]

Not to defend Barone's ability to prognosticate, but he's simply using the same method he did in the summer of '94 -- looking at polling numbers. And what the polls (even the partisan polls) show, is, apparently, is a wash in the House races, and perhaps a slight advantage to the GOP in the Senate races.

On the negative impact of negative campaigning, I agree with you. "Genius" Carville is a victim of his success in the Clinton era, but the chemistry has changed in politics since 9/11. He and the Democrats can't get off the negative campaigning, the attack style of politics (evidence McAulliff's Bush-bash this weekend). Of course, since the Democrats don't have a positive platform to run off themselves, they have nothing to run on but to attack-attack-attack. But I agree; I think the strategy will backfire. Carville's stock will go down, because he's failed to adjust to the biggest change in the political climate since the Reagan revolution. (At least, I hope this is the case.)

[hchutch]

IMHO, I think it was Lincoln Chafee who sad that.

He's the only switcher I see. The key, IMHO, is to rack up a slight margin by knocking off a couple more Dems. Carnahan, Cleland, Wellstone, Torricelli, and Johnson all could be beaten with maximum effort. All we'd need is to hold the seat or two in danger (Arkansas/New Hampshire), and we'd be in good shape afterwards with a 51-47-2 majority at worst (assuming Chafee switches to IND to join Jeffords).

[My2Cents]

Your memory is correct. That was Chaffee.

[jackbill]

Democrats have attacked Republicans for favoring "privatization of Social Security," that is, allowing individual investment accounts as part of the system.

The President's commission on private accounts - which you can read at the White House web site - would limit investments to exactly the same investments allowed in the government's Thrift Savings Plan (their equivalent to the 401-k).

The response from any Republican candidate who is hit by a DemocRAT incumbent, about the risk of "private accounts" should be: "Have you stopped investing in the Thrift Savings Plan?"