TO TAKE TAIWAN, FIRST KILL A CARRIER

The Jamestown Foundation ^ | July 8, 2002 | Richard D. Fisher, Jr.

[sphinx]

Fourth, the PRC leadership are not stupid or ignorant and are patient.

Exactly, and this is the key. The Chinese are not stupid. If the guns don't go off, China will absorb Taiwan economically regardless of what flag is flying where. Taiwan is to China as Canada is to the U.S., and the Chinese have about as much reason to invade, save for one imponderable.

The wild card, of course, is that Taiwan's combination of econmic success with an evolving democracy rips away the rationalizations for the dictatorship on the mainland. Hong Kong was a threat for the same reason. An attack on Taiwan would be motivated by a regime crisis in Beijing. The thing to watch here is China's internal political evolution. I think if they can get through the next generation without an explosion, China will be ready to join the civilized world, and welcome. (Formidable competitor though it will be.) I tend to be optimistic about China in the long run, but we need to stay prepared nonetheless.

[Free the USA]

Index Bump

[johnny7]

I tend to agree. We would not use a tac-nuke response to a conventional assault on Taiwan.

If... we respond, I would expect a Chinese Declaration of War with the United States exists within hours.

Expect soon after, North Korea announces its alliance with China and crosses the 38th Parallel.

In this scenario, American carriers would be target #1... our “foot on far”, as Napoleon called his artillery.

If they are neutralized... game over. Taiwan and South Korea exist no more and Japan is a ripe plum, ready to be picked.

Just another opinion.

[wku man]

"Our former president would have tucked his tail at this point."

"Do you mean like Bush did when the Chincom brought down our survelience plane?"

I'm glad someone remembers that little incident last year. Our resolve was tested and Dubya failed. How the hell are we going to defeat the Chinese military machine if we can't/won't even take out Saddam Hussein once and for all? We're a nation of wusses, with a military weakened after eight years of Klinton, and two years of RINO leadership. I think China can and will take Taiwan whenever it damn well wants, because they know we won't do a thing to stop 'em.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

[Eric in the Ozarks]

You forgot the missile subs. We have 50 or 60 of em and one boat could pretty much wipe North Korea off the map.

[Charles Martel]

the American people would clamor for the extermination of Communist China. Don't think so? We're pretty much on our way to eradicating militant Islam for knocking down two buildings.

I agree, especially since a military strike by another *nation* would provide a very clearly-defined enemy. If the Chinese use a tactical nuclear weapon against a carrier group, they will buy a nuclear retaliatory strike. If they use conventional weapons, maybe we won't go nuclear either. Much depends on how the attack against us is initiated.

If this comes to pass, what *will* Wal-Mart and K-Mart stock their shelves with?

[tanknetter]

Anyone have info on the "surprise runs that the Russians carried out against the carrer Kitty Hawk in Oct/Nov. Please post.

Going purely from memory of what I read at the time. The Hawk was conducting UnRep (Underway Replenishment) with an AO or AOE at the time and was not conducting flightops.

The Russian planes (Su-24s and -27s, iirc) came in and buzzed the ship. The first plane off the Hawk's deck was an EA-6B (electronic warfare variant of the now-retired A-6 Intruder) ... which found itself in the unenviable position of getting into a firball with several Flankers.

The buzzing was the equivilant of you or I walking down the street eating an icecream cone and suddenly getting jumped and stomped in the 'nads. There's no way to compare what happened to what WILL happen if the ChiComs ever try something against a US carrier. The carrier WON'T be operating without a CAP. The carrier WON'T be operating at a reduced threat condition. The carrier WON'T be operating without escorts. And the carrier WON'T be steaming slowly with a big fat, slow pig of an oiler a hundred or so feet off the starboard side.

This isn't saying that the ChiComs can't get in a first blow that will hurt, hurt badly or even sink a US carrier. But it's sheer idiocy to say that the ChiComs gained anything (other than a good laugh) at the little stunt the Russians pulled. If anything the US gained from that experience ... I'm willing to bet that our UnRep proceedures have changed substantially, at least when conducted in close proximity to a potential adversary.

[Redcloak]

Major General Huang Bin, a professor at the PLA National Defense University, [stated] on May 13:

"...The United States likes vain glory; if one of its aircraft carrier should be attacked and destroyed, people in the United States would begin to complain and quarrel loudly, and the U.S. president would find the going harder and harder."

The Professor should get a copy of the book I'm reading right now; Victor Davis Hanson's Carnage and Culture. I'm just now into the section on the disasterous Roman defeat at Cannae. Hannibal's forces slaughtered ~75,000 legionnaires in 216 BC; one of a string of victories. But as horrible as this lose was for the Romans, it did not break them. Within a few years, the Roman army was at Carthage.

[chilepepper]

I cannot bring myself to believe that the Chinese Communist Party would risk its existence by taking out a US aircraft carrier...

You know, its a funny thing but aircraft carriers have been vulnerable since satellite reconnaisance came into being.

Are the Chinese military planners so stupid as to believe that either the US military response would collapse without carriers or that the US public's patriotism would collapse for the same reason??

Boy are they in for a nasty surprise if they try it...

[John H K]

What wasn't mentioned in the article was the new torpedo developed by the Russians, which will likely end up in the Chinese arsonal. I can't remember the exact method this torpedo uses, but somehow, it can create a pocket (or many pockets) of air around it's outer surface, allowing it to travel much faster than our ships could effectively respond to a torpedo attack.

This torpedo has a SLIGHT problem you don't see in the typical World Net Daily and Newsmax hype articles....

It can't turn. Just runs straight. No homing capability.

[Don Joe]

"The United States likes vain glory; if one of its aircraft carrier should be attacked and destroyed, people in the United States would begin to complain and quarrel loudly, and the U.S. president would find the going harder and harder."

The fools. If one of our carriers is attacked and destroyed, China will be reduced to a vast wasteland of smoking rubble within minutes.

[Don Joe]

"If China sinks an American aircraft carrier during an invasion of Taiwan, do you think the United States would just go home?"

Yes, but not before taking care of business.

"Taking care of business," however, should not take more than ten or fifteen minutes.

[John H K]

If they are neutralized... game over. Taiwan and South Korea exist no more and Japan is a ripe plum, ready to be picked.

Japan's air force and navy (err, "Self Defense Forces" technically..but don't buy the euphemism...they have some of the most capable and modern and well-trained military forces in the world) are superior to that of China, right now.

Only thing China has an advantage over them is in quantity of land forces, which is irrelevant to Japan, and nuclear forces. Japan could have an ICBM force superior both in accuracy and numbers to China within a year or two, whenever they felt like it.

And China can't invade Taiwan even if the US does nothing to stop them, as I've noted, and it's not totally obvious that North Korea could overrun South Korea, were the US not to provide any assistance.

[Don Joe]

"All they need to do is get close with a mini-nuke."

If they do, they'll find out just who the real "sleeping giant" is, and rue the day they woke him.

[Don Joe]

"They would have to sink two carriers at once, and then have enough resources left over to handle the other four we would send at them."

Even if they did, they'd still be screwed -- they can't take out our silos.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

With such a strike, Beijing hopes to quickly terminate American involvement in a Taiwan War.

Hmmm. That's kind of funny...He-he...ho ho. HA HA...HA HA HA...HO HO HO!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Sorry. I lost my composure for a second. <snicker, snicker>

[Don Joe]

"But it's sheer idiocy to say that the ChiComs gained anything (other than a good laugh) at the little stunt the Russians pulled."

I've always believed that the only reason the Russians were able to pull that stunt was because we knew they were not a risk to us. IOW, it's like your cousin sneaking up behind you and going "Boo!" You may jump, you may even drop your ice cream cone, but you know that he's not gonna kill you.

With the chicoms, on the other hand, there are no such assurances. Quite to the contrary, we are well aware of their oft stated goals of destroying us. If we are operating in an area where they pose a risk, I expect we will not be going along with our guard down and our vulnerabilities exposed. If they make a false move, they'll pay for it, and dearly. Chang has to get it through his head that he's not Ivan. My cousin can get away with all kinds of things that the ex-con across the street better not even think of pulling.