Aircraft crash in mid air

Fox News | 7/1/02

[archy]

Somethings missing.

Around '69 a big passenger jet ran over a small single engine plane around Shelbyville,IN.

Inbound to Indianapolis. Both went in.

Yep. A conversation recalling that crash took place while I was working the Crash of an American Eagle ATR-72 near Roselawn, IN on Halloween of 1994. Details follow:

Accident description - Status: Final

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Date: 09 SEP 1969
Time: 15.29 EDT
Type: McDonnell Douglas DC-9-31
Operator: Allegheny Airlines
Registration: N988VJ
C/n: 47211/357
Year built: 1968
Total airframe hrs: 3170 hours
Engines: 2 Pratt & Whitney JT8D-7
Crew: 4 fatalities / 4 on board
Passengers: 78 fatalities / 78 on board
Total: 82 fatalities / 82 on board
Collision casualties: 1 fatalities
Location: Shelbyville, IN (USA)
Phase: Descent
Nature: Scheduled Passenger
Departure airport: Cincinnati-Greater Cincinnati APT
Destination airport: Indianapolis International Airport, IN
(IND) Flightnumber: 853
Remarks:
Flight 853 was descending from 6000ft to 2500ft when, at about 3550ft, it collided with a Piper Pa-28 aircraft (N7374J). The Piper was flown by a student pilot on a solo crosscountry VFR flight. Visibility was 15mls with intervening clouds.
PROBABLE CAUSE: "The deficiencies in the collision avoidance capability of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) system of the Federal Aviation Administration in a terminal area wherein there was mixed Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) traffic. The deficiencies included the inadequacy of the see-and-avoid concept under the circumstances of this case; the technical limitations of radar in detecting all aircraft; and the absenc of Federal Aviation Regulations which would provide a system of adequate separation of mixed VFR and IFR traffic in terminal areas." Source: (also check out sources used for every accident) NTSB-AAR-70-15

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The probability thing still bothers me. This was not a case of two planes on the same approach, or in anything like a congested area - not even a holding pattern, and it appears not to have been an ATC error. ATC was actively trying to avoid a collision. So assume one plane was deaf dumb and blind. What are the odds it would collide with another plane? The sky is very very very big. Planes are relatively small.

Compare the probability that the planes would collide in the three-dimensions of the sky, while none of the debris hit a person on the two-dimensional ground. It just don't seem right.