The Coming Attack

www.jrnyquist.com | June 24, 2002 | J. R. Nyquist

[Charlesj]

This is the scariest yet most thoughtful speculation on the terrorists I've read.

[tall_tex]

Can you tell us anything about the author and where you came about this article. Tom

[Argus]

If alQaeda had a nuclear weapon they would have used it on 9/11, when they had the maximum element of surprise. The fact that they had to employ crude methods to hijack our own airplanes instead indicates that they had nothing more effective available, and it's unlikely they've acquired a nuke since, with all the heat on them. So whatever they're planning, it most probably won't be nuclear.

[Lurker]

Just about the last thing in the world I am worried about, is Al Queda possessing a nuclear weapon, let alone being able to smuggle it into a major American city.

If they could do that, Tel Aviv wouldn't be standing today.

L

[Gritty]

Chemical and biological weapons cannot do this in the stated proportions.

Not true. The right ones with the right disperal methods can cause calamitous damage and casualties.

Visualize smallpox....

[Don Myers]

bttt

[Nouge]

A handful of small tactical nuclear devices with yields between one and 10 kilotons could not produce such a large result.

One thing he's not factoring in is thousands of people gathered together to watch fireworks...

[laconic]

I certainly hope that no nuclear attack takes place, especially with the connivance of Saudi Arabia, because if it does, public reaction may dictate there may be no further purpose for the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

[Trust but Verify]

Smallpox would, again, have been an effective weapon prior to 9/11. Now, if people started showing up with smallpox-like symptoms, it is MUCH more likely it would be properly diagnosed, and promptly. Quarantines, vaccination programs and new drugs to combat the disease almost make smallpox a waste of time for terrorists.

[Trust but Verify]

I don't believe this Hamdan guy, either. The statements he attributes to these possible terrorists sounds more like a movie script than anything a true terrorist would utter. That whole "We are here in the blah, blah, blah," just sounds like Hollywood nonsense.

[eno_]

You are too optimistic, especially about anti-virals. Even a large-scale anthrax attack could take out tens of thousands (out of millions exposed). Smallpox would kill millions.

[eno_]

Yeah, he's clearly full of it. The whole scenario was very improbable, and the call could have been traced, even if it was a malfunction. If it did happen, it was because someone who knows Hamdan accidentally dialed his cell phone (in the pocket, keyboard not locked), in which case figuring out who it was will be trivial.

[nevergore]

Bump.....

Saudi Arabia, Mecca will no longer exist...we'll leave the oil fields intact, goodbye Bagdad, Tehran, Damascus & Libya.....

NeverGore

[Trust but Verify]

Smallpox would kill millions where? Good Lord, you'd have to infect, 50 million people to get a mortality in the millions. How are 50 million people going to get infected with anything before quarantines, etc would be put in place.

[Gritty]

Smallpox would, again, have been an effective weapon prior to 9/11.

It is still an effective weapon until we get enough vaccine to stop a widespread outbreak. But, even then it is problematical as the Soviets have supposedly developed species resistant to our typical smallpox vaccines. If a terrorist organization had some of these bugs, all the vaccinations in the world wouldn't save you. Remember, almost 95% of the pre-Columbus Amerindian population was wiped out by disease to which they had no immunity. The survivors and their defunct civilizations were devastated. They went from a nearly unbeatable power to slavery in a few short years.

There are lots of biologicals other than smallpox that are a threat. Sure, they may wipe out half the world. But, do you think Al Queda would care? It's the cause that counts!

[Alas Babylon!]

I would invite all American men who are heathly, strong, and patriotic in joining me in beating the snot out of any arabs taking video of Naval vessels (and anything else for that matter) with stop watches. It is at least our duty to question them aggressively and perhaps even invite them and their camera to take a swim.

[Trust but Verify]

I think the supply of vaccine, the knowledge that smallpox is a possible weapon and other modern medicine would stamp it out before it became a pandemic.

[Poohbah]

J.R. Nyquist simply takes the terrorist's projected casualty claims at face value--he does not, for example, consider that they MIGHT be engaging in hyperbole--the sort of hyperbole that led Saddam Hussein to promise "the mother of all battles" and that the desert would turn into a sea of American blood, for example.

[eno_]

The death rate is about 30%. It would take a minimum of 6 million infections to reach a death rate of "millions." You also assume the epdemic does not spread to parts of the world where it cannot be controlled through quarantines.