USA Today headlines Pak-India NUCLEAR Scenario!

USA TODAY ^ | 06/04/2002 | Bill Nichols, with Mannika Chopra in India; Chris Woodyard in Pakistan

[Tuor]

Points of intense heat will change the winds, possibly even the jet stream. Heck, forest fires can generate their own winds and change an extremely local region's weather.

We've never seen what happens when you let off several nukes at once. If they do undertake a full exchange, we could get a lot of scientific data...by satellite.

Does anyone else think those US reporters who are still hanging around in India and Pakistan are sort of ballsy? *I* sure as heck wouldn't still be there.

Tuor

[My Identity]

Richard Armitage and Donald Rumsfeld [will] hand leaders of both countries something frightening to think about: a U.S. study estimating that as many as 12 million people would die instantly if the longtime adversaries were to launch a nuclear war.

Rumsfeld's trip to share a US "study" about the consequences of a nuclear exchange seems problematic, at best. Non-combative behavior requires all parties to act appropriately. India can be made to back off easily. The Pakis (or at least certain key players in Pakistan) are another matter. One is left with the impression that they will be discouraged by Rumsfeld's presentation only in the sense that 2-12 million dead and 2 or more ruined countries are not on par with a hoped-for 200 million dead and a united dar al-Islam at war with dar al-Harb.

Now, perhaps by some miracle, the US knows a lot more about where the Paki nukes are located (satint?). A US threat to take away their toys would help the Pakis toe the line.

[Cascadians]

India and Pakistan are already complaining that the pull-out of various peoples warned by embassies is having a negative economic effect.

If one keeps reading Breaking News wires re India-Pak situation, it keeps getting worse: more movements of nuclear weapons, Army reports rise in infiltration, militants furious with Mushy and want his head, feel betrayed, increased fighting and death and villages destroyed, more alerts to ppl to leave, more kidnappings and accusations and strange reports.

The Breaking News in this thread is that a mainstream pop newspaper in the USA has headlined this in terms of possible consequences to the American people.

Perhaps more Americans will now search out Indo-Pak breaking news and consider preps for possible scenarios.

[My Identity]

The parties have been kicking a lot of dirt on each other recently. Trying to provoke the other, or prove their bonifides for their constituents back home. The Hindis are leaning forward, the Pakis seem to be doing doing their best (e.g., launchers, missles) to dare India to cross the line.

The leftist paradigm allows the weaker Pakis to attack India via proxy without penalty, while India must show "restraint". India appears well past restraint at this stage. Massive buildups along the LoC by India are a logical step to slow militant infiltrations. Now add to that the muslim 'humiliation' issue, so that the Pakis feel obligated to respond to the Indian build-up. If Pakistan (or the terrorists) engage in some provocation too far, India responds by attacking conventionally. Pakistan responds conventionally, but is soon overwhelmed in the air and at sea. Some Paki field commander, fearing the worst or about to be over-run, resorts to tactical nukes (Paki nuke protocols are reportedly very bad - Musharraf claims he has no control, doesn't know the location of Paki nukes. If they're in the field as reported, even if under "loyal" commanders, their security is significantly at risk). India responds in kind, heavily. Total missle flight time: 3-5 minutes. The World's Shortest and Deadliest War.

If the Pakis simply backed away from the border and put away their toys, world pressure on India to do likewise would be impossible to ignore. However, that would be 'humiliating' to the Pakis ( It's a Muslim Thing, You Wouldn't Understand^© ), so it doesn't seem likely. The US could put its troops in harm's way. That would stop the Hindis, but perversely it would motivate the Paki terrorists. If India pulls back, the Paki fundamentalists would see that as a sign of victory and redouble their efforts. A "Mexican Standoff" of sorts.

Jihadis in Kashmir are the wildcard. Conversations between Washington, New Delhi and Islamabad are meaningless if the terrorists cannot be contained. Paki military middle-management seems reluctant to shut them down. India is unlikely to be 100% successful in stopping infiltrations (The Line of Control is, after all, 740 Km (460 miles) long). Further attacks in Indian-controlled Kashmir and elsewhere are therefore likely to occur. If sufficiently provocative, they could push New Delhi to act -- either low-intensity (targeting militant camps along the LoC) or high-intensity (targeting Paki nukes, command structures, Paki high ground, etc).

The grim conclusion: apparently the Pakis, a textbook failure of a society, immersed in grinding poverty, swimming in a soup of self-pity, self-righteousness, and self-hatred, infected with jihad fevers, sees martyrdom as an 'honorable' out. They'll welcome war -- and risk everything -- because they have nothing to lose. A societal death wish.

An alternative (and more hopeful) spin on events to date is that Mush is ratcheting up the rhetoric (and here) to cover for the crackdown on the jihadis. Mush is whipping the Pakis into a near-frenzy over the nuke option. Meanwhile, he is cracking down on the bad players. India eventually sees that LoC activities have dropped significantly, so they can pull back. Mush can then claim that India withdrew because they feared Paki nukes. Dangerous posturing, but better than the alternative. The sudden surge in (apparently coordinated) evac orders (e.g., UK, US, UN, Israel, Australia, France, Canada, and New Zealand) suggests that this scenario is low probability (the Western powers are firing a diplomatic warning shot in public because the back-channel stuff isn't working). However, (or as a result) Mush has been making conciliatory remarks (and here and here and here) in the last 48 hours. While India is responding in kind (here and here), they may not be able to rely on even private US reassurances regarding Paki intentions given Mush's history. So the region remains on a hair trigger.

I think Mush is trying to clamp down on the jihadis, with an order to stop infiltrations (and here and here), but he does't have complete cooperation. Hopefully he'll convince the ISI troops to cool it for the 2 weeks that India demands. We'll see.

Further, the 2 week window puts the region into the monsoon season. That averts the crisis for a few months, but it also gives the bad guys time to regroup (and the good guys time to round them up). The next window is September.

The most disconcerting issue is the question of Paki control over their own nukes. There are multiple reports on loose management of Paki nukes. The sources quoted above are not all considered highly reliable, but some (U.S.) seem to be reasonably reliable. And they do paint a consistent picture. Does Musharraf have control? One hopes so, but given the level of sophistication in that part of the world, it is easy to imagine that fail-safe and C&C procedures are weak, especially with tactical nukes. I find it difficult to imagine that Pakistan has multiple, secure, nuclear-storage facilities, for example. Certainly the jihadis would love to get their hands on a nuke. And the religious, political, and personal ambitions of the key Paki players makes it an interesting brew.

Are there any wild-eyed fanatics beyond ISI control out there? Probably. They are starting to turn against Mush. If the jihadis, or even key segments of the Paki military, spin out of control, all bets are off.

Nevertheless, it would seem both the top-level public and covert trends are cooling-off, but not yet in the green.

Finally, there is the hope of a deus ex machina scenario that isn't public knowledge. Does the US have assets on the ground or in the sky to help pinpoint the location of Paki nukes in real-time? One fervently hopes.

Best Freegards,

MI

[Snidely Whiplash]

One thing we've read that is startling: many huge cities in India do not have adequate water supplies for fighting fire, or enough firemen. Cities like New Dehli. So destruction via fire is a given in war scenarios over there.

A firestorm is pretty much part of the deal. The blast shock wave itself knocks over most of the buildings within a couple of miles of the hypocenter, which blocks the streets, making it impossible for fire/rescue crews to get through. The blast wave will also fracture water mains (if there are any), and make it nigh impossible to fight any fires even if you could get there.

Regards,
Snidely

[tanknetter]

A scenario that probably won't be presented to either side is the one that the US is probably developing, refining and training for right now - seizing control of the Pak nukes ourselves. I have to think that there's an elite cross-functional team whose entire reason for existence at this point in time - whose every waking thought - everything they breathe, eat and sleep - is how to ensure control of the Paki nukes.

There were reports several months ago of US SpecOps troops training with the Israelis for just such a mission. The belief at the time was that the US attacks into Afghanistan would spur a fundamentalist revolt in Pakistan ...

Additionally, when the US deployment into Afghanistan began the US deployed two complete MEUs to the IO. One went into Afghanistan, the other stayed aboard their ships. The assumption was that this was the "ready force" for seizing the Pakistani nukes (until other forces could be trained for specifically that mission)

If you get a chance, go pick up a copy of "Vortex" by Larry Bond. It has a pretty good scenario where US Army Rangers grab South Africa's nukes ...

[1234]

...the US is probably developing, refining and training for right now - seizing control of the Pak nukes ourselves.

our gubmint hs been mumblin 'bout this since 9/11-if they ain't gotta finished plan by now, those in-charge should face the firin squad. was already floated that CHINA hold the pak stuff for safekeepin.

[pfflier]

Anybody notice that India's problem is Islamic fundamentalists attacking from Pakistan. Sound like a familiar scenario? Doesn't that make India a default ally against the axis of evil?

[Cascadians]

Incredible post. Thanks! While there have been some "cooling off" gestures, the back channels seem to indicate escalation. Fervently praying we're wrong. All the players need to see this is a No-Win situation.

Are the Pakis going to wave their Nuke Terrorism whenever they don't get their way? Are they going to go over the edge with their Ultimate Suicide Bomber fantasies? Is the world going to let them build and buy more and more nukes, and chem & bio terror?

Are the Jihaters just warming up? They are involved in most of the world's conflicts.

What consequences do you all foresee for America if this blows?

[Steven W.]

India and Pakistan are not going to have a nuclear war. This is all hype & hysteria stirred up by the DemoncRATS and promulgated by an otherwise bored media, all for the purpose of disturbing the populace and trying to undermine the financial markets. The DemoncRATS are worried that the economic numbers, such as yesterday's manufacturing report, are all UP and indicate no double dip recession and a decent recovery ahead. Without a double dip there is no way to cast blame on Bush and without fear + concern in the populace there is no fearmongering to be done ahead of midterm elections. All conservatives should boycott such ridiculous stories speculating about a nuclear war that isn't going to happen.

[Cascadians]

A terrorist is a terrorist is a terrorist.

Remember Bush's 911 speech, and those shortly afterward.

If a jihater attacks a country other than the USA, it is still terrorism, and that country should be able to defend itself.

[My Identity]

Some idle speculation on problems for the US:

- US Troops caught in the cross-fire
- US blamed (logic not required here)
- US Troops targeted for revenge by Pakis (logic not required here)
- US reps (embassy, etc.) caught in the cross-fire (UK ordered evacs mid-May)
- Pakistan's 'humiliation' causes it to lob everything it has at anybody it can find
- US "allies" hurt badly, US aid required
- US staging for Afghanistan from Pakistan becomes difficult/impossible
- Breakdown in security for Hindi and Paki nuclear facilities
- Jihadis might seize a live nuke in the field
- Region destabilized (opening for China)
- Another player (China) sneaks suitcase nukes into India
- Global fallout causes (probably unnecessary) panic
- Ripple effect in financial markets causes recession (perhaps depression)
- South Asia turned into a lawless land in which terror groups thrive

[Cascadians]

Thank you!
That type of Free Republic Think Tank is what we were hoping for. Foresight is power. Economically, a nuke war probably would not boost the "confidence" factor

[Cascadians]

This is much bigger than the DemonCraps. Don't give them that much power

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

There are so many books in the end-of-the-world genre. I have read several, and I'm not sure what that says about me, if anything. The one that seemed the least hyperbolized was "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute. In case anyone is reading it or plans to, I won't give away the ending, but I've always been curious how plausible such a scenario is, both in how the nuclear exchange starts and the final result. It seems the novel was written just after Hiroshima (or while it was still fresh in the world's collective memory), and we didn't have supercomputers that could model climatic data in millions of instructions per second, or play war games of countless scenarios such as India/Pakistan, or Russia/US, etc.

I tend to think that hyperbole used in fiction with regard to nuclear weaponry itself is not entirely unwarranted. These aren't toys. Better to fear that they'll kill 10 million people, and not use them, than hope they'll kill at least 100,000, and use them.

Things are getting "curiouser and curiouser" as Alice said. I admire and worry for those who have children in these times. You are expressing a faith and optimism that is admirable, and I hope your faith, however manifested, is well placed. I come to FR as a check against the media, which tends to do what it must to sell papers, or get Nielsen points. I am doubtful that this situation in India/Pakistan will escalate, but that is a combination of my ignorance, fear, and optimism. The media plays to 1 and 2, and FR helps allay 1 and 2 while promoting 3. I'm feeling better already.

[steveegg]

VERY scary. I think that a couple of Pakistan's missiles can just about reach Israel. Of course, the question is whether either India's nukes or our special forces can get to the loose nukes before they get used or "lost".

[spetznaz]

Actually the more probable scenario is that the Pakistani ISI, seeing the defeat of Pakistan and its possible annihilation as a viable state, will 'lose' at least one nuke to some terrorist org (they had ties with al Queda, but it doesn't have to be them since a Q was just an umbrella group). That one nuke will be an end-game stratagem to be used to punish the 'murderous' west for allowing the 'godly' Islamic nation of Pakistan (haha) to be dstroyed by the infidel Hindus and the Israelis (Israel always has to pop somewhere).

Thus that is the most probable scenario. After all once a nuke war starts and India starts lobbing IRBMs and flying nuke ladden Jaguars and Su-30MKIs against Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi, then at that point Pakistan will have nothing to lose.

And when you have nothing to lose and are facing imminent obliteration of your way of life (as well as several million people) you tend to act in illogical ways. And note: most muslims are illogical to begin with! This will just add fuel to their illogical religious zeal.

Then the real war starts!

[spetznaz]

I wish that was the case. Sadly the men of US (or any other special forces from the Brit SAS to the Israeli Sayeret to the Russian Spetsnaz) are this: amazing people who are braver than most humans can comprehend, and are highly skilled technicians who can accomplish that which is normally not accomplishable. Sadly however, they are not supermen!

Getting into Pakistan (even a nuked Pakistan) would be a logistical nightmare, and the operationw ould be rife with dead US soldiers. Also, and this is actually more important, Pakistan ahs set up a myriad of mobile launchers and secret launch sites in a bid to hide their nukes from the Indian RAW and the Israeli Mossad intelligence services. And they have accomplished that! I doubt our US services are that much better than those (especially when you consider Israel and India face the threat of 9-11+ every single day).

Also the US intelligence service was fooled in 1998 by the Indians who had been tracking our spy satellites and making us think their nuke test sites were agro-farms! Remember, without good intelligence even the best spec-ops soldier is just well-trained soldier. Think Somalia, although we killed over a thousand of them we still suffered an ambush and many American dead. All due to bad intelligence and complacency. Also remember the ambush in Afghanistan.

You need honed intelligence. And even with that i really do not think it is possible to take down ALL of the Pakistani nukes. And remember this.... you only need one low yield kiloton device set off in a place like WallStreet to put the US in an economic tailspin that it would probably never recover fully from.

And all that these terrorists want is just one bomb. Not an arsenal. And i think in the event of a defeat the Pakistani ISI would be willing to provide that one nuke as an end-game strategy.

Whihc is why i hope that you belief is correct. That oru men are supermen. Sadly i believe they are not supermen.... just super-trained men. And to get rid of Pakistani nukes we would need an actual ubermensch, a strue superman!

[fogarty]

"I somehow doubt the American economy would collapse because of a nuclear war between India and Pak."

What are you, smoking crack or something? The pyschological shock alone would send the markets down to pre-1990 levels. Like it or not, we've got a HELLUVA a lot of ties to that region. Witness how the Thailand-Singapore-Hong-Kong collapse nearly sank our market in the mid-90's.

Not to mention, we have about 50,000-60,000 Americans over there right now - military forces, ambassadors, missionaries, and private citizens. You're talking a humanitarian nightmare a thousand times worse than all Pearl Harbor and 9-11 combined, with more Americans killed as well.