"...in 2002, there was once a primitive "website" called The Free Republic.."
Posted on 05/05/2002 12:57:54 PM PDT by inquest
Another trend is that technology is rapidly expanding the power of illusion. When we get to the point where we can no longer trust what we see in front of us, rational thought will go out the door, with sanity following very close behind.
So anyway, I guess rather than the issue being one of machines "exceeding" human "intelligence", it's more one of machines subsuming human consciousness. Sorry for the confusion.
This "Rage against the machine" arguement it getting old and boring to listen to.
I love it! Thanks.
In one sense that may be, but in another, we're not hearing enough of it. What we're certainly hearing plenty of, are mere lamentations about how "technology is changing everything" and nostalgic yearnings for "simpler times"; and I agree, that's getting old. What we're not hearing enough of is the realization that we can actually do something about it. We don't have to sit around writing epitaphs for ages gone by. If we don't like how it is, then it's time to change it. If we can do that, then that would be the most profound progress that the human race has truly made, at least since the American Revolution.
"...in 2002, there was once a primitive "website" called The Free Republic.."
Most people actually in the trenches tend to disagree with Kurzweil, both in the timeline (his is too slow, believe it or not) and in the sequence of events and technologies. He is entitled to his opinions, but it is fairly well known that most of those on the bleeding edge find his view odd and inconsistent with the current state of things. He also has a strange (and likely incorrect) view of the architecture of such things, for reasons that are inexplicable since Ray is a fairly bright guy and should know better. (Actually, he does know better; many people have argued with him over this very issue, but he believes what he believes.) *shrug*
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Here is the flaw in your logic, there have NEVER been 'simpler times". The rise of technology has merely change around the hardships. But for the most part, 'human nature' has stated the SAME for the better part of 5000 years.
Would you prefer that we all live in caves?
Indeed, what most people do not realize is that memory latency and bandwidth is THE bottleneck for performance in the general case these days. Performance scales much more closely with memory bandwidth and latency than with clock speed, and has for a couple years now. Unfortunately, only hardcore geeks even take this into consideration when they buy a system, so there isn't a lot of market pressure to improve the situation at breakneck speed (unlike increasing clock speed, which sells more systems).
There are two major factors: hardware and software. By the best estimates of people qualified to make such determinations, the hardware is pretty much here now on the high-end, and if not now, "next year". The software has had a lot of problems, but there have been a number of very substantial and important advances recently that are far more promising than the much hyped failures of previous decades. If these fundamentally new directions pan out (and they look MUCH stronger and fundamentally more sound than any previous attempts), then we should have something approximating real machine intelligence by the end of the decade. Having been burned in the past, no one wants to oversell it these days. Of course, the what's, how's, and why's are a lengthy and complex topic.
Yes, but it will remain crude. GP is really only useful for a small domain of problems. While technically you could get something interesting from this, hardly anyone thinks this is the likely pathway. The fundamental problem with GP is the computational requirements to find solutions to even moderately complicated problems become obscenely high on our computational hardware.
Of course, it is important for people to realize that there are a number of legitimate pathways competing; there isn't just one right way to do it.
There is an entire subculture of folks called "transhumanists" (with their own books and websites) that are looking forward to what we both consider to be a nightmare scenario.
These transhumanists believe that we will be able to supercharge our minds, bodies, emotions, and spirituality by uploading our minds into transformer-like robotic bodies or onto a more robust version of the internet.
They believe that we will be smarter, stronger, have more intense emotional and sexual experience, write better music, create better art, etc.
However, as anyone who has played C-robots can attest, if your robot spends any time composing music or getting a bit of the old "in-out in-out" then it will quickly get destroyed by a competing C-robot.
It would be creepy but somewhat acceptable if we were able to slough off our carbon-based bodies and put ourselves into super-immortal nuclear-hardened bodies that could withstand centuries of space travel, thousands of dates with Racquel Welch, and decade long Philip Glass concerts.
However, those "transhumans" (whether computationally, mechanically, or genetically enhanced) who choose to live full lives will be outstripped by those who focus their efforts on accumulation of wealth, power, and control.
In the long run, the most highly evolved uber-robot might ultimately be undone by a very simple nanobot whose only purpose is to replicate itself by digesting and reordering matter: the gray goo problem.
In the short term, we have the following things to concern ourselves with:
1. Perfect Capitalism leading to monopolies and oligopolies: With enough brainpower and access to info, complete access to pricing/business information will allow a few to have a significant edge in economic competition. By the time this technology reaches the masses, a few will already control a considerable amount of the wealth (and future wealth generating capacity) thus keeping the masses at economic bay.
You and I will be able to have intelligent agents constantly scanning the net for the best phone rates and automatically switching our service and paying our bills to minimize the cost and maximize the service. However, the folks that own the few phone companies from which we can choose will not be worrying about saving a few bucks on long distance calls.
2. Pansexuality and Androgyny: If virtual reality really starts to look and feel like reality, then people can start experimenting at home with a variety of sexual behaviors and sexual identities. It is currently a joke that most of the 16 yr old girls in chat rooms are actually 40 yr old guys. But in the future more and more people might explore these things virtually in privacy, and then later be emboldened to adopt these lifestyles in reality. This could lead to a truly brave-new-world like future where marriage is denegrated and marginalized, sex exists primarily as a form of recreation, and angst & ennui reign as the wonder and mystery is taken out of human relationships.
3. Police State Technology: Some of us imagine that there is a God that can see everything we do. In the near future it may be possible for the state to approximate this view of God. Imagine that the world is so populated with satellites and cameras that once a month you receive a bill that lists every traffic violation you made with the corresponding fines. For convenience you will be able to have the bill automatically deducted from your bank account!
Also, the house of the future will be filled with security cameras to protect us from our potentially evil baby-sitters, maids, and the police that might barge through our doors. These cameras will either be hacked or subpoenaed and our private lives will be as exposed as our public ones.
I got a great idea for you. First read the book, then write about it.
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