Posted on 12/05/2024 6:33:28 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
“Apparently the vaunted(?) Russian air support has been insufficient.”
They are a shadow of what they were the last time, due to the losses and overuse in Ukraine.
Besides the huge overcommitment in Ukraine, they are running short on some tactical aircraft across their whole fleet, like the Su-24 and Su-25. Remaining airframes have had a huge amount of operational hours put on them. Spare parts, replacement engines and support equipment have all been used up or their inventories badly strained. Pilot losses have been high, the lead time to train new pilots is long, and they are still not as good as the more experienced ones that have been lost.
Russia just does not have the same kind or quality of Army or Air Force, that they had before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been stripping their forces in Syria for quite some time, to support operations in Ukraine.
“Apparently the vaunted(?) Russian air support has been insufficient.”
They are a shadow of what they were the last time, due to the losses and overuse in Ukraine.
Besides the huge overcommitment in Ukraine, they are running short on some tactical aircraft across their whole fleet, like the Su-24 and Su-25. Remaining airframes have had a huge amount of operational hours put on them. Spare parts, replacement engines and support equipment have all been used up or their inventories badly strained. Pilot losses have been high, the lead time to train new pilots is long, and they are still not as good as the more experienced ones that have been lost.
Russia just does not have the same kind or quality of Army or Air Force, that they had before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been stripping their forces in Syria for quite some time, to support operations in Ukraine.
“The coming massacre of the minorities, Kurds, Christians of different stripes, Alawites, Druze, etc.”
With Saudi/Wahabbi/Hanbali inspired al Queda and ISIS extremists, that is a very real risk, especially for Shi’ites. Under the more moderate Hanafi school of Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh) of the Ottoman Empire; Christians, Jews, Alawites and Druze were tolerated and allowed a significant degree of freedom and prosperity. The Hanbali Fiqh of the Wahabbis lead to long periods in history where adherents of other views were simply slaughtered.
Although promoting a kind of restoral of the Ottoman Empire, Erdogan has also been a big supporter of the more extremist interpretations - probably for the same reason that the Saudi rulers did, because they make great fanatical shock troops.
The map in post #16 shows something interesting - one red arrow of advance against the surging Sunni rebel forces, by the Kurdish forces in the yellow area.
The other minority communities in Syria are subordinate to the Syrian regime, and not well organized to put up a fight outside of the State structure. But the Kurds are already administering their own territory and operating their own Military and Intelligence Services.
If the Turkish-backed Sunni forces capture Damascus and the National Government, the US-backed Kurds might be their next concern.
“The Hanbali Fiqh of the Wahabbis”
Oops, that should be the Hanafi Fiqh of the Wahabbis.
But as I must acknowledge, the Ottomans, even with more tolerant rules in theory than the Saudi/Wahabbis, still occasionally conducted genocidal repressions of minorities, like the Armenian Genocide, and the massive oppression of Greek Christians, as well as massacres of Shi’ites.
Next on their list, Free Palestine.
If the Syrian government collapses, I'll expect the Alawites and the Christians to form militas on the coast to protect their sects from Islamists.
It's likely that Russia will protect them, if it's just to keep access to their naval base in Syria.
There were some pretty impressive numbers being bandied about by pro-Russian posters on various platforms, about numbers of sorties Russian air support was doling out earlier this week, claims Aleppo was going to be a trap / kill zone, etc., but, so far, the rebels are still advancing...
A question would be whether Russia needs all the fighter jets possible, in Western Russia, to defend against missiles launched by the Ukies? So far, the vids make it very clear most of the Storm Shadows and ATACMS are reaching their targets. That leaves the Russian bombers for duty over or around Syria, but, those bombers have been used to launch standoff munitions at Ukraine, best results (for Russia) seeming to occur when Russia sends up a lot of planes to launch mass missile attacks to overwhelm Ukie AD.
Same source that @ your link says the rebels retreated from Hama says Hama has now been taken.
https://www.rferl.org/a/syria-hama-capture-game-changer/33228913.html
I assume the Russians and Syrians can at least defend the airbase for a while.
Very interesting article. Unsaid is the possibility of Syria being split in 3.
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