Pennsylvania Poll: Trump Up 5 in the Crucial Swing State

Breitbart ^ | 10/31/2024 | HANNAH KNUDSEN

[traderrob6]

Ranked 23rd by 538. Take with a grain of salt though as they have Quinnipiac rated 17th and the best pollster Atlas ranked only one better than Echelon at 22.

[simpson96]

I knew there was a good reason he isn’t visiting PA when I saw his travel itinerary for the next 3 days.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Yeah Trump might be leading but not by that much I find that a lil hard to believe

[Political Junkie Too]

This poll has an interesting demographic model:

Party ID:

• Rep: 39%
• Dem: 35%
• Ind: 23%

Region:

• Philadelphia: 40%
• Pittsburgh: 22%
• Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York: 16%
• Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hazleton: 11%

I didn't think that Pennsylvania voted like an R+4 state.

-PJ

[cgbg]

Good comment.

I think the games this pollster is playing is that they are backing into their number by the Democratic under-performance (about 500K) in mail in early voting already received.

Pollsters don’t like to admit games like that.

It is kinda like plugging a number on the balance sheet to make it balance.

:-)

[stonehouse01]

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/10/31/what-to-look-for-ballot-vs-votes-iteration-4-0/comment-page-4/#comments

[FlingWingFlyer]

I read earlier that some Pennsy TV station pronounced the VooDoo HooDoo as the winner and they all started dancing the Pennsylvania Steal Polka.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Atlas Insights has Trump up by 2 in PA. Still very close, and I saw a report that the early vote (dominated by women) has Kamala in the lead by 3 points. We need PA men to show up and vote on Election Day.

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm looking at county registrations.

This poll is made up of 40% Philadelphia residents. Philadelphia county registration is:

• Dem: 801,991
• Rep: 134,524
• Other: 169,758

Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, 22% of sample) has this registration:

• Dem: 525,826
• Rep: 274,048
• Other: 151,977

Dauphin County (Harrisburg) has this registration:

• Dem: 88,523
• Rep: 78,821
• Other: 36,313

Lancaster County (Lancaster) has this registration:

• Dem: 114,785
• Rep: 187,128
• Other: 64,091

The rest of the listed regions are small (like Harrisburg).

I don't understand how this poll can get a R+4 result when Philadelphia and Pittsburg make up 62% of the sample, and 919,245 more Democrats than Republicans.

-PJ

[TheBattman]

How can these polls be so radically different? CNN has most swing states going Kamala by +5 or better. The Vegas betting machine has Trump at nearly 70% chance of winning.

[nbenyo]

Ask Senators Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz how they feel about this pollster.

[nbenyo]

Probably “Philadelphia” includes the city plus populous Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware counties. That would be close to 40%

[cgbg]

Yeah—I am sticking to my “plugged the numbers and didn’t tell us about it” explanation.

:-)