He has nailed nearly every presidential race. Here’s what he thinks about Trump-Biden debate.

NJ.com ^ | 6/30/24 | Matt Arco

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Lichtman is really a Dem hack. But this is funny. This article says:

In May 2024, he told veteran reporter Chris Cillizza he’s heavily leaning toward Biden this November by using his 13 true/false model that’s worked 90% of the time.

But let's look back almost four years at his 2020 prognostication...

"Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly"

The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

He needs to update his model with Key #14: Cheating and ballot fraud.

[enumerated]

“Out here we underestimate the sheer depth of bone-chilling revulsion and loathsome hatred people have towards Trump.”

It’s not deep at all - it’s a narrative generated by the Democrat-owned corporate media.

If they wanted to, they could switch it off over night and have the brainwashed Democrat masses loving Trump.

They would start by having the late night talk show hosts and their celebrity guests suddenly start saying nice things about Trump. The low-information Democrat masses are so incredibly malleable that they are literally waiting to be told what to think.

These Leftist zombies used to love Trump until he ran for POTUS as a Republican. They hate him now because they are being programmed to hate him. The people that own the fake news cam turn it on and off like a spigot - there’s nothing deep about it.

[LS]

Lichman is an idiot. I don’t care how many “calls” he lucked into.

[smokingfrog]

I didn’t say which one.

[Racketeer]

I stopped at Professor.

[x]

Hillary Clinton won all three debates, still lost. John Kerry won all of the debates, still lost.

People will disagree about who the winners of debates are. If a candidate effectively stands up for his side, supporters will count that as a win. But Biden wasn't effective and could barely stand up at all.

[Sarcazmo]

Oh yeah... I ‘gotta get hooked on phonics.

[gitmo]

Infernal Server Error.

[gitmo]

“Zero. Debates are not predictive of outcomes.

So why bother having them?

[The Great RJ]

Biden still has to campaign and presumably has agreed to another debate. Given the now rapid progression of his dementia, there is no way he can be presented as being mentally able to be POTUS. Voters who might support Biden also have to consider they are in effect voting for Kamala as President. If Biden wins it will be by rigging the election even more massively than in 2020