Posted on 03/14/2024 12:57:48 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Actually, I do need glasses. But, what does that have to do with anything?
Saying, “And the ‘polls’ from the lame stream media consistently shorted Trump by 3-4% before the election.” doesn’t answer why. BTW there are Republican-friendly polls out there, like Trafalgar.
Here’s why: #1-There are more hidden Trump voters than dead voters. By hidden Trump voters, I mean Trump voters who decline to participate in polls or who give incorrect answers. #2-There is also the problem of assuming greater turnout by Democrats. Maybe 1 point of the bias in 2020 was hidden Trump voters and maybe 2 points of the bias was due to assumptions of greater turnout by Democrats.
Considering the bias in polls, if we’re ahead in the polls, we’re probably ahead. (Not that anything is a guarantee.)
If you’re NOT a Democrat lurker or a Putinbot, you shouldn’t be so pessimistic when they show us ahead. But, of course, Democrat lurkers and Putinbots are paid to sow dissension and pessimism in this country or at least among the Republicans. So, those people can’t be stopped.
Since you brought up the matter, as to why some polls are registered voter polls at this time in an election cycle, it’s because they think it’s too early to screen for likely voters. (Nevertheless, some polls, like Rasmussen, routinely screen for likely voters.) Registered voter polls with a shift to likely voters later in the cycle is a long-standing norm in polling, going back to the beginning of scientific polling in 1936.
100% of the time, and for years.
They’re one of the worst.
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