Posted on 11/09/2023 9:11:47 PM PST by SeekAndFind
And they love you long time.
War, pandemics, extinction events, genocide... at el.
The equation is not possible to solve given the overall dynamics.
According to leftists it happened about 50 years ago.
All true.
“Malthusian economics” is alive and well. I think it is more aptly called “Malthusian biology.” As one trained in economics, I’m happy to let the biologists have it.
I read once that Malthus predicted mass starvation in England in 30 years. When that did not happen, he concluded that his theory did not apply to people!
I wish that other people could learn from their mistakes. The reverend was more scientific that many people today who claim to be following “the science.”
The most interesting thing about demographics is how they end up locked in for decades moving forward. Radically assumptions are necessary to generate extremes, and even so the divergences take 20-30 years even to start materializing. The primary reason to extrapolate out to 50 years and beyond is because no horizon shorter than this ends up very interesting.
Next to these, the lefties insert “moderate” scenarios that give sublime results from their enlightened policies — fixing climate change, contraception and reproductive rights for all, no borders, a big rock candy mountain within 100 miles of everyone, etc. It then follows that by golly we better get busy on all of this stuff so that we don’t end up egregiously over- or under-populated ... at the end of this century.
The IHME is amazing, fantastic, beautiful by the way, if one can simply tune out the lefty noise. Their data are pretty darn comprehensive, complete, rigorous, ...
What to make of this? Looking out decades, I myself reject the extremes and see a middle ground that is not especially dependent on following one set of policy options or another. Then I focus on the next 10-15 years, as my large crew of children (ages 24 - 33) make key life decisions. The mass retirement and human capital attrition of old folks from high-income workforces in the US, Europe, Japan, Asia, etc. will create a vacuum like no one anywhere is anticipating. My over-educated and highly motivated children will have professional opportunities that astound. I lecture them relentlessly, though, not to put too much weight on their professional opportunities, because there will be even greater rewards (accruing over decades) for them in having large, talented families of their own.
Especially on issues like DEI and affirmative action, the left is gobsmackingly zero-sum over a 10- or 20-year forward-looking horizon. In fact, there will be huge returns from elevating anyone and everyone — even white men — who are talented, work hard and do good work. As us oldsters retire and die off, there will not be enough young adults to pick up the slack. The world’s mentality will have to shift to “all hands on deck,” and I am confident that it will.
If the Earth's population gets much bigger than it is today, Joe Biden and the rest of the war-lovers will be hard-pressed to supply all of the weapons and ammunition required for all of the wars that will follow. Doesn't mean they won't keep trying.
I don’t think that these projections reflect calorie restrictions in the future decades.
The production of calories depends on natural gas for nitrogen fixation using the Haber-Bosch process, limited reserves of rock phosphate in few locations, and hydrocarbons for production of agrochemicals and fuels for tillage and transportation.
There is also the possibility of plant and animal disease epidemics (for which see Potato Blight).
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