Posted on 11/21/2022 9:22:04 PM PST by SeekAndFind
RE: I’m not defending Biden’s energy policy
My impression is you seem to be saying that high energy prices have nothing to do with Biden’s policies and even if Donald Trump’s policies were in place, we’d still be in the same situation we are in today.
In which case, you seem to be saying that Regardless of what Biden does ( whether or not he shuts down pipelines, bans more fracking or drilling ) energy prices will not be adversely affected. I find it hard to be convinced of this.
RE: But if the oil producers think demand is going up they’ll invest the money to increase production.
Regardless of Biden’s threat to limit oil production?
Biden has OPENLY stated that he wants to end our use of Fossil fuels.
See here:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=viAXGth3gQA
And here:
https://apnews.com/article/9dfb1e4c381043bab6fd0fa6dece3974
Now, there are several ways oil producers can interpret this:
1. Biden is simply playing to his Green base but isn’t really serious about it.
2. Biden REALLY wants to eventually end fossil fuel use.
If #1, then I can see how producers can still take the risk of investing. But if it’s going to be #2, they’re going to be risking another Keystone Pipeline debacle.
RE: There are complex reasons why, and the regulatory environment is one,
Ok, we seem to have come to some sort of agreement. The only question I have for you is this: How much of a factor does regulatory environment play in the rise in gas prices? Is it major or minor?
The Energy companies are asking Biden to do the following:
1. Reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands
2. Authorize critical energy infrastructure projects to support the production, processing and delivery of energy ( Keystone XL Anyone?)
3. Revise the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by establishing agency uniformity in reviews, limiting reviews to two years, and reducing bureaucratic burdens placed on project proponents in terms of size and scope of application submissions.
4. Tell the The Securities and Exchange Commission to reconsider its overly burdensome and ineffective climate disclosure proposal to access capital markets
5. Ensure that future federal agency rulemakings continue to allow U.S. refineries to use the existing critical process technologies to produce the fuels needed for global energy markets.
6. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should cease efforts to overstep its permitting authority under the Natural Gas Act and should adhere to traditional considerations of public needs as well as focus on direct impacts arising from the construction and operation of natural gas projects.
How much of the above were policies under Trump carried over to Biden?
How much of the above policies were set down by Biden after he became President?
The energy companies KNOW what it takes to meet future and present demand and have highlighted the above as obstacles. Surely, these are factors causing energy prices to spike.
I'm saying that since Biden became President US oil and natural gas production has steadily increased and natural gas is at an all time high.
Would it have increased faster under Trump? Maybe, and it certainly wouldn't have been slower.
But compared to the other global economic forces our domestic energy policies have had a very small impact.
Biden can and probably has impacted production a little, but to blame our current prices on governmental action is simplistic and at odds with the data.
As you pointed out, natural gas costs have doubled yet we're at all time high gas production. Do you think there may be something more at play than Biden talking fracking down?
RE: Whatever we’re doing, it’s working. US natural gas production is all the way back and now at all-time record levels.
So, by this I take it you foresee Natural Gas prices to be DROPPING in the near future? If so, let’s revisit this thread a few months from now.
All I know personally are these as of today:
1. Petrol prices are still 30% higher compared to pre pandemic levels
2. Natural Gas prices are even higher
You said it’s working. I hope you’re right. So far, it isn’t.
Biden has OPENLY stated that he wants to end our use of Fossil fuels.
And that absolutely inhibits production. But these producers are looking way beyond any potential Biden term.
A large part of the world is at least giving lip service to reducing fossil fuel use and that's taken into account.
Again, the future prices, which are what matter when deciding whether to invest, are only mildly impacted by US energy policies.
If Dumba$$ Bi-duhhhhhhn had done nothing but steal the election and then play golf for 4 years he would have gone down in history as the greatest president ever.
Trump had set up everything for success.
RE: As you pointed out, natural gas costs have doubled yet we’re at all time high gas production. Do you think there may be something more at play than Biden talking fracking down?
I would say the energy companies have learned from what happened with Keystone XL and are holding a wait and see attitude before putting more money into drilling and fracking.
That something more at play is probably UNCERTAINTY. The Ukraine and Russian sanctions factor comes into play. The sabotage of Nordstream 2 only exacerbated the situation. The green policies of Europe also contributed.
But talking down fracking is only hurting, not helping.
NO!
What's clear is US natural gas production is very, very loosely correlated with US consumer natural gas prices.
Tell me what's going to happen in Ukraine, how many LNG terminals Europe can get online and whether Russia will still be a pariah state and I'll take a guess at what's going to happen to natural gas prices.
No question. But talking it up isn't going to "end the energy crisis by next year".
Look, the oil industry-promoting non-profit that came up with this list wants less regulation and lower costs for the producers. That's fine and makes a lot of sense but they're way overplaying the impact on global prices, and Jazz Shaw is acting very naïve in promoting this.
RE: No question. But talking it up isn’t going to “end the energy crisis by next year”.
We’ll have to disagree here. Governments that are seen to be ENCOURAGING and FRIENDLY to businesses will always have a positive influence on the business.
It helps! Talking it down hurts and discourages.
Fine, but there are limits to what any one country can do in a global market.
RE: Tell me what’s going to happen in Ukraine, how many LNG terminals Europe can get online and whether Russia will still be a pariah state and I’ll take a guess at what’s going to happen to natural gas prices.
I just mentioned those factors in Post # 48 above.
As you can see these are all GOVERNMENT policies affecting the price of natural gas. It might not be ours, but we’re indirectly encouraging them somewhat through our influence.
* Russian invasion of Ukraine is government policy (Putin and his minions are government
* Our continually sending arms to Ukraine thus prolonging the war is OUR government policy
* European dependence on Russian energy is government policy.
* German refusal to use their coal is government policy.
Ok, here’s a scenario… suppose :
* Germany increased their coal production and restarted the nuclear plants that they shutdown because of Fukushima
* We use our diplomatic influence to push Russia and Ukraine for a ceasefire and to start negotiations
* UK increases North Sea Oil and Gas licenses next year
What do you think will happen to energy prices?
RE: but there are limits to what any one country can do in a global market.
Sure, there are limits, but we cannot underestimate the power of FRIENDLY government policies. Like it or not, PERCEPTION is a powerful psychological factor in business, especially from government. And if the perception is translated into real implementation, especially when it comes to the world’s number 1 economy, it exerts a huge positive impact on markets.
I tried to be pretty clear I was referring to the effect of US energy policy - the topic of the thread.
What do you think will happen to energy prices?
Coal would probably get cheaper but it’s mostly going to China. The Germans would probably have lower electricity prices. A ceasefire won’t do anything until a deal is reached, even then it won’t help much if Putin’s still around. Western countries won’t trust Russia as a supplier as long as he’s there.
If new leases actually resulted in more production it would marginally lower natural gas prices in Europe.
Well, we’re talking about the factors in the world that affect energy prices in the world. Since increase supply from the USA has not lowered prices, I endeavored to steer the discussion overseas.
It seems that we agree that more fossil fuels regardless of where they are from ( Coal from Germany, more production from the UK ) will help decrease the price of energy everywhere. I think the EU will have no choice but to set aside their obsession with Green Energy to refocus on fossil fuels and so must we here in the USA:
Which leaves us to Russia as the major price influencing factor.
What seems to be happening prepandemic was the confluence of several factors:
* A friendly Regulatory environment in the USA
* Resulting in increased energy production
* Resulting in worldwide competition with Russia and the Middle East
* Resulting in lower energy prices
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