Posted on 07/15/2022 8:47:40 PM PDT by familyop
An American senator shows pictures of HIMARS fireworks.
Ideal template for memes. #Ukraine #HIMARS pic.twitter.com/1LSO6focvC— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 15, 2022
Ukraine ping
Many thanks to familyop for the ping
War is a group learning exercise where at least two parties learn from each other, typically in big leaps, if both sides are equally intelligent and resourceful. The Russians have obviously figured out that the Ukrainians are numerous, well-supplied and competent enough to repel any numbers-constrained Russian advances on multiple axes. So they have concentrated their superior numbers of big guns on a single, fairly small front, while holding ground elsewhere.
The unanswerable counter to improved Ukrainian artillery (e.g. rocket systems like HIMARS) would logically be air attacks by either drones or manned systems. However, just as low and slow Ukrainian drones are vulnerable to Russian counters, their Russian counterparts should equally have issues with Ukrainian ground fire and MANPADS. So this leaves expensive fighter jets.
Putin’s problem is possibly that he is worried about leaving his eastern flank open to Chinese invasion. What if China does not invade Russia, but merely occupies Mongolia, thereby erasing a buffer state Russia has guarded against Chinese claims for almost a century to make it easier for Russia to defend its border with China? If he loses his air force while trying to destroy Ukrainian artillery units, he basically leaves Russia’s Far Eastern interests naked.
Then there’s the issue of the potential transfer of mothballed F-16’s and F-15’s to Ukraine, given that Ukrainian pilots are now said to be training on those platforms. He will need his air force to defend his ground expeditionary force against a greatly enhanced Ukrainian air force, numbers- and capability-wise. If handed over to Ukraine with their full complement of strike munitions, US strike aircraft pose an even more serious future risk to Russia’s ground units from air-dropped smart bombs.
For instance, the $1.3m JASSM air-launched cruise missile has a range of over 200 miles, giving it the reach to drop the bridge that links Crimea to Russia proper, without having to deal with ground-based air defenses. The Moskva once helped Russia control the skies over the Ukrainian sector of the Black Sea. Since this ship is no longer a factor, it’s likely that any strike package targeting the Crimean bridge could simply skirt ground-based Russian air defenses by flying over the Black Sea en route to delivering its bombs. (If Russia has somehow cobbled together a flotilla to assume the Moskva’s airspace denial duties, air-launched Harpoons could be delivered from either F-15’s or F-16’s against any Russian naval vessels controlling the airspace over Ukraine’s sector of the Black Sea).
The Russians will eventually figure out a countermove to Ukraine’s new rocket systems. The Ukrainians have to decide if the size of the window they have - in between the birth of their temporary advantage and the moment this advantage draws its last breath - is worth risking an all-out advance to exploit that momentary edge. Patton would have saddled up. Montgomery would have given the planner who dreamed up the idea a piece of his mind.
You can also find these reports as a podcast.
Did you see this about hundreds of Iranian drones being sent to Russia?
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/usa-russia-ukraine-iran/2022/07/11/id/1078294/
The Mullah Putin Stooges on FR are pleased.
We’re training ukrainian pilots.
Not sure if we are training mechanics.
Pretty sure we’ve got mechanics in Poland.
None
likely that any strike package targeting the Crimean bridge
—
Points about the destruction of the Kerch Bridge:
It would cut off fresh water to the Crimea, returning the land to salt and sand, unable to grow anything;
Sevastopol would have to bring fresh water in by ship;
Destruction would cut off a line of retreat for southern Russian forces.
Or just wasted men and resources in one of his "Master Plans" (see: Market Garden).
—> It’s about time.
Just no.
This is for Europe to fund, equip, fight, or negotiate.
More pressing is how many have been sold on the blackmarket.
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