Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
General Mick Ryan: Ukraine is continuing to push forward in #Kursk while also conducting a difficult defensive campaign in the Donbas. On the Russian side, the Russians are continuing to push on their main effort – the advance towards Pokrovsk – while seeking to redeploy forces from other areas to stem the advance of Ukrainian forces in Kursk. 1/19
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1823961990731280574.html
For decades, European countries have been dependent on Russian gas imports. And they did it to themselves. The biggest culprit? Germany. Only after Russia declared war on Ukraine did the German government realize that Russia has been using gas as a weapon for a long time.
How did this come about? What is Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan? The films take a look behind the scenes of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. They show the genesis of an empire: from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the Russian goldrush, the restrictions imposed by newly-elected President Vladimir Putin and his regime's subsequent arrests and expropriations. The filmmakers shot the film before the start of Russia's attack on Ukraine; a project that would no longer be possible today. The material allows viewers a glimpse into the inner workings of the energy giant Gazprom.
The Kremlin reportedly fired former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s advisor on information policy Andrei Ilnitsky possibly as part of an ongoing effort to shift control of Russia's wartime information policy from the Ministry of Defense (MoD) to the Russian Presidential Administration. Russian state media outlets observed that Kremlin newswire TASS promptly issued a correction to a report on August 15 stating that Ilnitsky is a former advisor to the MoD.[27] Russian state media outlets reported that Ilnitsky’s title change indicates that he was recently fired and observed that Russian President Vladimir Putin fired several of Shoigu’s deputies in mid-June, although the Russian MoD did not officially announce Ilnitsky’s dismissal.[28] Ilnitsky’s dismissal also appears to be relatively recent since many Russian outlets referred to him by his MoD title at least as of July 2024.[29] One Russian source claimed that Ilnitsky resigned after Shoigu’s dismissal, however.[30] Russian media claimed that Ilnitsky may have been the creator of the ”Z” symbol that Russian forces have used during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and noted that he had advised the Russian MoD since 2015.[31] A prominent Russian social media propagandist reacted to the news by accusing Ilnitsky of creating a harmful and confusing information policy at the Russian MoD and recalled an instance in which Ilnitsky attempted to teach him how to wage ”information war” in April 2022.[32] Some Russian milbloggers implied that Ilnitsky advocated against daily war coverage and blamed Ilnitsky for misleading Russian state coverage of the war in Ukraine.[33]
One critical Russian milblogger condemned Ilnitsky’s dismissal, noting that his removal indicates that the Kremlin is advancing its efforts to transfer the control of Russia's wartime information policy from the MoD’s Department of Information and Mass Communications to the Russian Presidential Administration.[34] The milblogger noted that members of the Presidential Administration attended the first meeting of newly appointed Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Russian milbloggers on June 10 and that this was the first indicator of the expansion of the administration's control over the entire Russian media infrastructure. The milblogger claimed that the Presidential Administration's apparent consolidation of two separate information mechanisms – the domestic propaganda machine aimed at ensuring political stability in Russia and external information warfare mechanisms – is a dangerous undertaking for Putin during a period of information war since simplified media control systems are more susceptible to external influence. ISW has consistently observed reports that First Deputy Chief of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko has been increasingly expanding the administration's control over the Russian information space and policy since at least the Wagner Group mutiny in June 2023.[35] ISW also assessed on August 15 that the Kremlin appears to be trying to hastily create a new information space that predominantly features Kremlin-affiliated sources in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, and the Russian government continued to blacklist select Russian milbloggers, political commentators, and other Russian internet personalities on August 15 and 16.[36]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-16-2024
For decades, European countries have been dependent on Russian gas imports. And they did it to themselves. The biggest culprit? Germany. Only after Russia declared war on Ukraine did the German government realize that Russia has been using gas as a weapon for a long time.
How did this come about? What is Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan? The films take a look behind the scenes of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. They show the genesis of an empire: from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the Russian goldrush, the restrictions imposed by newly-elected President Vladimir Putin and his regime's subsequent arrests and expropriations. The filmmakers shot the film before the start of Russia's attack on Ukraine; a project that would no longer be possible today. The material allows viewers a glimpse into the inner workings of the energy giant Gazprom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCNHwH9MxGA
Russian gas giant Gazprom suffered net losses from January to June 2024 almost double those in the same period last year. Losses in the first half of 2024 totalled 480.64 billion rubles ($5.5 billion), while those in the first half of 2023 totalled 255 billion rubles ($2.95 billion), according to Gazprom financial statements,
Moscow has heavily taxed Gazprom’s revenues over the last two years and the company paid $28 billion to the government in 2023, accounting for 9% of the government's revenue last year.
In June, a report commissioned by the company said it would not be able to recover losses incurred from Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine for at least 10 years.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-gazprom-net-losses-nearly-120650869.html
“There is no panic, but there are other feelings.” What the General Staff is saying after the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Kursk breakthrough
If the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive on August 6 came as a serious surprise to many, then from the vantage point of the past days, everything looks different. The day before, we talked to our friends and comrades in the General Staff to find out what the current mood is in the army.
One of our interlocutors admitted that mistakes were made at first. They were caused, among other things, by panic among the personnel. “We don't know how they managed to transfer so much equipment and troops to the border. Unfortunately, we were not ready. The enemy really found a weak point and used it 100%, let's be honest,” said the interlocutor in the General Staff.
A source close to Valery Gerasimov emphasized that the mistakes made in the first days of the invasion were caused by the scale of the front. “A huge front line, many reserves involved. And in general, several branches of the armed forces are mixed, which prevented effective command and control of the troops,” our interlocutor explained.
According to a high-ranking interlocutor in the Aerospace Forces, in the case of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive in the Kursk region, serious Western technologies were used, which prevented the aviation from fulfilling its tasks. Part of the aircraft fleet was lost during the fighting. The exact number is not disclosed, but the losses, alas, are serious.
A high-ranking interlocutor among the generals emphasized that by the end of the second week of the offensive, there is no sense of panic, but many hasty actions were provoked by the actions of the Ukrainian special forces. “Their saboteurs are scouring the entire region, and the commanders on the ground sometimes had reflexes that went “in the wrong direction.” That is, panic out of nowhere. This is basically what special operations forces are for. We work in a similar way. Now the situation has stabilized, but there are problems with managing reserves and we do not fully understand what is happening in the Glushkovsky district. How many people there are cut off from us logistically,” the general noted.
https://x.com/aborealis940/status/1824509825914638467
When “the Black Colonel” Viktor Alksnis saw this he posted
I usually don't post photos and videos of the enemy, but yesterday I couldn't resist posting the destruction of the bridge across the Seim in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as an example to follow. But before the air strike on the bridge, the bridge was shelled by an M142 HIMARS MLRS. And I was amazed at the accuracy with which four missiles hit the bridge span. Yes, they only damaged the span and the road surface, but our weapons are not capable of even that. The reason? The deliberate deindustrialization of the country, the deliberate destruction of thousands of defense enterprises, the deliberate destruction of fundamental and applied science. Several decades are needed to correct the current situation. But who will give them to us?
“Russian gas giant Gazprom suffered net losses from January to June 2024 almost double those in the same period last year… Moscow has heavily taxed Gazprom’s revenues over the last two years”
I wonder how much of Gazprom’s losses have been from higher tax (which might be reversed with a stroke of the pen by policymakers after the war), and how much has been damage to the business itself (EBITA)?
Clearly, both have contributed to losses. In addition to the huge loss of market share in Europe, there is likely a component of the infrastructure and gas fields maintenance running down, reducing production capacity - which might become more severe over time, like it did after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Moscow has heavily taxed Gazprom’s revenues over the last two years and the company paid $28 billion to the government in 2023, accounting for nine percent of the government’s revenue last year.
The decision to further increase taxation means Gazprom has cut investment this year by 15 percent, the British MoD said. The company’s profits will be restricted until 2030, the MoD believes.
In seeking new markets, Russia has been forced to export natural gas at reduced prices. The Russian Economy Ministry published a report setting gas exports’ price to China at $257 per 1,000 cubic meters compared with $320.30 for Western markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-increase-taxes-struggling-energy-162133750.html
Belousov invited Putin to pray together for the Kursk region. But was refused
According to our sources in the Ministry of Defense, Andrei Belousov invited the president to pray at the relics of Saint Matrona of Moscow. Let us recall that they are planned to be sent to the religious procession against the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. But at the moment it is unknown when it will take place. “Andrei Removich invited Vladimir Vladimirovich to pray together for several hours for victory over the enemy - in the Kursk region and along the entire front. He was refused. And he himself prayed to Mother Matronushka. We will win!” - said a source in the entourage of the Minister of Defense.
The Kremlin confirmed the president's refusal to us, but did not explain the reason. We assume that the refusal is connected with the recent disclosure of an assassination attempt on Putin and the strengthening of security measures by Vladimir Vladimirovich's guards. However, the sources also refuse to comment on this version. Some interlocutors hint that the president is dissatisfied with Belousov. But they refuse to go into details. We will find out what really happened and tell you when we get fully verified information.
The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has already generated theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces, and subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will likely generate even greater pressures on Putin and the Russian military. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has prompted the Russian military to redeploy up to 11 battalions from within Kursk Oblast and four Russian force groupings elsewhere in the theater to the frontline in Kursk Oblast so far.[14] US officials reportedly told the New York Times in an article published on August 15 that Russia has committed reserves to Kursk Oblast that it otherwise would have committed to grinding offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the coming months.[15] The redeployment of Russian forces and the commitment of elements of operational reserves has allowed Russian forces to slow initially rapid Ukrainian gains in Kursk Oblast and start containing the extent of the Ukrainian incursion.[16] Containment is only the first and likely least resource-intensive phase of the Russian response in Kursk Oblast, however. Putin and the Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized, as persisting Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory would be a strategic blow to Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.[17]
A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast will very likely require even more manpower, equipment, and materiel. Russian sources have claimed that Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions within Kursk Oblast and building fortifications, although it is too early to assess how hard Ukraine forces will defend occupied positions within Russia against likely Russian counteroffensive operations.[18] It is also too early to assess when Russian forces will stop Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast completely and seize the battlefield initiative to launch a larger counteroffensive operation. Russian forces have expended considerable combat power on the effort to seize Pokrovsk, which they began in mid-February 2024 after seizing Avdiivka, and have since advanced roughly 23 kilometers in the area over six months of the most intense fighting in Ukraine in 2024.[19] The current Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast appears to be roughly 56 kilometers wide and up to 28 kilometers deep, although the area where Ukrainian forces are consolidating positions is likely smaller in size. Russian forces will likely have to conduct a prolonged counteroffensive effort to retake all of the territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast unless they bring overwhelming force to bear, and the Russian military command will likely have to commit additional operational reserves and newly generated forces to sustain the effort.
The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has also forced a decision point on Putin about the long-term strategic requirements of defending the thousand-kilometer-long international border with northeastern Ukraine, and it is unlikely that Russia will conduct intensive counteroffensive operations to push Ukrainian forces back across the border only to neglect the international border area once again and leave it vulnerable to future Ukrainian incursions.[20] Putin will likely order the Russian military command to consider the manpower and materiel requirements for defending the international border, although it is unclear how he will weigh these requirements against Russian military requirements in Ukraine. The Russian military will have to consider manpower and materiel requirements for defending the international border as part of its theater-wide campaign design, which will impose long-term operational planning constraints that Russia previously did not face.[21]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024
“Things are bad in Kursk Oblast, but there is one hope”
A high-ranking source in the General Staff told us these words, commenting on the situation at the front. According to him, “we need to tell the truth in Kursk Oblast, things are bad now, a very difficult situation that was the result of a series of mistakes.” The military man believes that “almost the only (unfortunately, this is exactly what our interlocutor said, - ed.) chance to save the situation, and we are talking about the Ukrainian conflict in general, is to achieve success in another direction of the front.” “
In Kursk Oblast, everything will most likely drag on (the source agrees with Andrei Belousov’s forecasts, which we wrote about, - ed.). Everyone is already saying this. At the same time, we are successfully moving forward in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsky) direction in the DPR. I would, honestly, stop lying and saying that we will soon resolve the Kursk issue. And I would start liberating the DPR, since there are problems in a number of other areas of the front,” the source said.
And the interlocutor in the Ministry of Defense admitted that rather strange conversations are increasingly circulating among the generals. They say that it would be a good idea to transfer some troops from different sections of the front to the Krasnoarmeysk direction in order to achieve results there. Because, despite the heroic offensive, despite a number of serious successes, the situation there is still ambiguous.
The military has not yet made these proposals to Vladimir Putin. They are afraid that the president will suspect them of intending to surrender the Kursk region to the enemy.
This 50 minute video looks interesting.
However having just finished watching a 44 minute video on most recent activities in Kursk, I will leave that video as a link with some descriptions. Several guests describe various activities and info that I have not seen mentioned or described elsewhere. Uke occupied space in Kursk may now be 1200 sq k. A green path to Ukraine may be available for Kursk citizens who prefer to go to Ukraine and not Russia, perhaps already 5,000, compared with 78,000 to Russia. Uke soldiers have been ordered to treat Kursk civilians properly, with supplies and security planned for the near future. Video ends with details on Uke Olympic participation and mention that almost 500 Uke Athletes are serving in the Uke army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBEmPLmgM1I
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.