Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria.[1] The GUR stated that LH and IRGC trainers are training Russian operators how to use Shahed-136/-131, Ababil-3, and Qods Raab 85 drones and that LH commander Kamal Abu Sadiq is heading the training effort. Iranian-backed militias and Russian forces are located at Shayrat Air Base, which is the second largest Iranian air base in Syria's Homs Province after the Tiyas T-4 Air Base.[2] The IRGC and LH previously conducted training for Russian forces on Iranian-made drones at the Russian-controlled Palmyra Military Airport, also in Homs Province.[3] The Israeli Air Force notably struck Shayrat Air Base and other Syrian army Iranian-backed militia sites throughout Homs Province on February 7.[4] The GUR report suggests that Russian forces are expanding drone training to Shayrat Air Base utilizing existing Russian military infrastructure and leveraging relationships with LH and other Iranian-backed militant groups.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2024
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank stated on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses for at least two to three years by producing new vehicles and reactivating vehicles from storage.[64] IISS estimated that Russia has lost over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in 2023 and close to 8,000 armored fighting vehicles since February 2022. IISS stated that Russia likely reactivated at least 1,180 main battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers pulled from storage in 2023. IISS stated that Russia has 10 Central Tank Reserve Bases, at least 37 mixed equipment and armaments storage bases, and at least 12 artillery storage bases. Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko stated on February 11 that Russia's reported tank production numbers in recent years largely reflect restored and modernized tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[65]
Russia is trying to nationalize certain defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises. Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on February 13 that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office filed a lawsuit with the Sverdlovsk Oblast Arbitration Court to seize the shares of three industrial enterprises of the Chelyabinsk Electrometallurgical Plant, claiming that the privatization of these enterprises from 1993 to 1999 was illegal and required the Russian government's permission.[67] The Prosecutor General's Office claimed that residents of unspecified “unfriendly” states control the enterprises and that the enterprises export products at a reduced cost to the US, France, and the United Kingdom (UK). Kommersant reported that the Prosecutor General's Office stated that the enterprises are Russia's largest producers of ferroalloys specifically for high-quality steel for military equipment, heat-resistant aircraft engines, weapon barrels, and armor-piercing projectiles.
full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024
The Kremlin is conducting information operations against Moldova very similar to those that the Kremlin used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, likely to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov answered a question after his speech to the Russian State Duma on February 14 about the Transnistria conflict and falsely alleged that the United States and European Union (EU) control the Moldovan government.[35] Lavrov claimed that the West stopped the 5+2 negotiating process in the Transnistria conflict. The 5+2 process included Russia, Ukraine, Transnistria, Moldova, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as mediators and the EU and US as observers. Lavrov claimed that Russia will “do everything” to resume the 5+2 process. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian stated on January 28 that Moldova would not return to the 5+2 process as long as Russian-Ukrainian relations did not improve and Russia's war in Ukraine continues.[36] Lavrov claimed that there are about 200,000 Russian citizens in Transnistria and that Russia is “concerned about their fate” and “will not allow them to become victims of another Western adventure.”[37] Lavrov further alleged that Moldova decided not to give state budget subsidies to regions such as Gagauzia that oppose Moldovan integration with the EU. Lavrov compared Moldovan actions concerning Gagauzia to the way the West “refused” to give former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych time to review Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU in 2013. Lavrov claimed that the West is issuing similar “ultimatums” to Chisinau about EU integration.
The Kremlin previously accused Ukraine of abandoning and disregarding the Minsk Agreements, which established the post-2014 armistice following the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and involved Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE with France and Germany as mediators, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly claimed that Ukraine's alleged violations of the Minsk Agreements “forced” Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022.[38] The Kremlin has also used the idea of protecting its “compatriots abroad” to justify the fact that Russian troops have occupied Transnistria since 1992 as well as Russia's full-scale invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.[39] The Kremlin has also accused the US of orchestrating the protests that erupted after Yanukovych’s withdrawal from the Association Agreement with the EU in 2013 and claimed that the alleged subsequent US-backed “coup” forced Russia to invade Crimea and begin military operations in Donbas in 2014 to protect those that “opposed the coup” and Russian “compatriots abroad.”[40]
ISW continues to assess that Kremlin officials and mouthpieces have been attempting to set information conditions to justify possible Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova and prevent its integration into the West, and the fact that Lavrov furthered these narratives — and added additional allegations — suggests that the Kremlin is orchestrating these wider efforts in the information space.[41] Other officials from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), including MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, have previously claimed that Moldovan authorities are trying to economically “strangle” Transnistria, are preventing a diplomatic solution to the Transnistria conflict, and face widespread domestic discontent towards Moldovan government policies.[42] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger has recently seized on the Transnistria issue to consistently promote similar Kremlin narratives as well as claims that Moldova is “militarizing” in order to “forcefully reintegrate” Transnistria into Moldova — an effort for which Russia, the milblogger claimed, must prepare.[43] Moldovan authorities recently accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of conducting exercises and using weapons in the Moldovan security zone in violation of the OSCE Joint Control Commission (JCC) protocols.[44] The timing of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova is unclear, but the Kremlin is setting informational conditions to make it possible soon.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-14-2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to elaborate on an amorphous ideology for Russia to support geopolitical confrontation with the West by attempting to portray Russia as the leader of an international anti-Nazi movement. Putin told Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin in an interview on February 14 that “many countries” are supporting an ideology of “the exclusivity of some nations (народ) over others” and that such an ideology is the root of Nazism.[33] Putin claimed that Russia should begin promoting ”anti-fascist and anti-Nazi” work and propaganda at a global level and that such work would not be effective at the state level.[34] ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin may be intensifying portrayals of an alleged Nazi and fascist West in an attempt to posture for international audiences, particularly those not aligned with the West.[35] Putin continues to fail to clearly define what comprises this ”anti-fascist and anti-Nazi” ideology and instead solely frames his anti-Western position as the basis for his envisioned ideological confrontation with the West. Putin's stated goals of “uniting” and maintaining control over the Russian World (Russkiy Mir) – purposefully vaguely defined as ethnic Russians, Russian language-speakers, and any territory and people formerly colonized by the Soviet Union and Russian Empire – is part of Russia's larger imperialist ambitions and unrelated to alleged interests in combatting fabricated modern Nazism. Putin is attempting to further both the Russian World framework to justify the war in Ukraine and Russia's larger imperialistic objectives and the portrayal of Russia as a leader in the international fight against alleged Western Nazism simultaneously but not congruently.
Putin intentionally misrepresented a statement from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an attempt to promote pseudo-history aimed at denying Ukrainian statehood. Putin purposefully misrepresented Blinken’s statement about his Jewish great-grandfather fleeing the Russian Empire due to pogroms.[36] Putin claimed that Blinken’s great-grandfather was from Poltava Oblast and lived in and left Kyiv City, thus demonstrating, according to Putin, Blinken’s recognition that these areas of Ukraine are “primordially Russian territory.” Putin and other senior Russian officials have routinely misrepresented Western officials’ statements to further Russian information operations.[37]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2024
We are not afraid of the West. The Kremlin's first reaction to Navalny’s death is known.
The news of the death of Alexei Navalny in the colony, naturally, became the topic of the day. For many, Navalny was, if not the main opponent of the authorities, then one of the main ones. His sudden death does not pose any serious risks, but will seriously cast a shadow over the upcoming presidential elections, Kremlin sources say.
“I found, of course, when to die. No one will believe in natural death,” said our source in the Kremlin, close to Sergei Kiriyenko. He admitted that the West could impose new sanctions in connection with the death of an opposition politician. “We are not afraid of the West,” one of the hawks said harshly. The interlocutor did not answer the clarifying question about whether Navalny’s death was an accident.
The President has already been informed of Navalny’s death. He wasn't too emotional and just said, “Oh well.”
It is worth recalling that Navalny was “hidden” in a colony beyond the Arctic Circle after being raped in a previous place of serving his sentence. Neither the authorities, nor the family, nor those around him wanted to disclose this piquant information. Companions feared that sexual abuse would end his political career. Alas, the prison has already “coped” with this task.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3613
Why did Alexei Navalny die? We learned three versions. We talked with sources in the Kremlin, the Federal Penitentiary Service and Alexei Navalny’s team about the reasons for the death of the opposition politician. Based on this communication, we can name three main versions.
Firstly, the Kremlin and the Federal Penitentiary Service claim that Navalny most likely died “of natural causes.” “Life in a colony is not easy. He had health problems, plus prison didn't improve anyone's health. That's why this happened,” said the [Presidential Administration]’s interlocutor.
Secondly, health problems could be related to the fact that the politician was raped in a colony last fall. We wrote that after this incident, Navalny was not only transferred to another colony, where he died, but also treated for a disease transmitted to him sexually. Typically, such treatment seriously affects health, and it could well have worsened Navalny’s condition.
Thirdly, several of the deceased's associates with whom we spoke claim that Navalny was killed. “We have virtually no doubt about murder and suspect poisoning,” one of the people close to Alexei Anatolyevich told us. What should we say about this? It is difficult to suspect us of sympathizing with Navalny, but why kill... We hope that this version will not be confirmed.
“Navalny was killed. I know by whom. Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] knew nothing,” a source in the Kremlin. A very respected source from Sergei Kiriyenko’s entourage claims that Alexei Navalny was poisoned. Moreover, the murder, according to him, was organized by people from Alexei Gromov’s entourage. But Vladimir Putin knew nothing about this.
Let's say right away that we did not want to publish such a version. But the source is very reliable, his insights have almost always been confirmed. And he really asked that this information be made public. Below is the direct speech of the interlocutor:
“Navalny was poisoned, I know exactly who did it, Gromov’s idiots did this to annoy us. Gromov and his people are terribly infuriated that the presidential elections are being carried out by Sergei Vladilenovich's team. And they wanted to please Vladimir Vladimirovich before the elections. To increase your influence, of course. The president himself knew nothing about such plans.
Of course, Vladimir Vladimirovich often said that Navalny was annoying him, and he was also afraid that he would organize protests from prison and interfere with the elections. Well, they decided to please the president. Idiots.
Now there really can be protests. Navalny’s supporters, of course, are weaklings, but death... It's fucked up, they can do anything, bitches. And also the West . What will he arrange for us now? It's scary to think about. All the same, Vladimir Vladimirovich will be blamed for everything. How to give a drink. You won't envy him now. Gromov’s idiots set him up.”
It is worth noting that Gromov himself and people from the circle of the first deputy head of the Administration refused to comment on these accusations to us. But we are ready to give them the floor. We do not want conflict in power, therefore we call on all possible parties to speak out and clarify the situation.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3615
Alexey Gromov, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexey_Gromov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_Administration_of_Russia
The power struggle is intensifying among the groups in the Kremlin.
Russian blogger:
“We didn’t kill him, he killed himself.” The Kremlin responded to accusations of involvement in the death of Navalny. People from the circle of the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration Alexei Gromov responded to the statement that they were allegedly involved in the death of Alexei Navalny in the colony. Let us remind you that our source close to Sergei Kiriyenko accused them of this .
“Nobody killed Navalny. He killed himself when he chose the wrong side, harmed Russia and ended up in prison because of it. That’s all,” a Kremlin interlocutor close to Gromov told us.
Another source close to Alexey Alekseevich [Gromov] responded to the accusations made against his boss and associates. “Kiriyenko’s people accused us of Navalny’s death? Fools. We can’t be toppled like that, even if Israel doesn’t even jump,” he said with a laugh. The interlocutor added that he does not really like making such public statements. But the accusations are too serious to remain silent.
At the same time, according to our source in the FSB, murder is considered among the versions of the causes of Navalny’s death. The interlocutor refused to say more for now, citing the secrecy of the investigation.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3618
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2024
The Russian reaction to the reported death of imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny on February 16 was relatively muted. The Federal Penitentiary Service of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, where Navalny had been imprisoned, stated on February 16 that Navalny died at the penal colony after going on a walk and feeling unwell.[26] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov stated that the Kremlin did not know anything about Navalny’s death and that Putin is aware of the death, though Putin has yet to comment about Navalny.[27] Other senior Russian officials expressed anger at accusations that the Kremlin was somehow involved in Navalny’s death and called for people to wait for the results of an investigation into the death and the results of the autopsy.[28]
Russians across the country laid flowers and held minor demonstrations near memorials for political prisoners, but Russian law enforcement largely prevented demonstrations from growing too large, and the Moscow Prosecutor’s Office warned against participating in an alleged planned large demonstration.[29] A few Russian ultranationalist milbloggers reiterated Kremlin lines criticizing Western accusations of Russian involvement in Navalny’s death.[30] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Navalny’s death is unimportant compared to the current situation in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and another milblogger claimed that it was a significant mistake for Russia to imprison Navalny and “let him die there” ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.[31] The Russian Strelkov (Igor Girkin) Movement (RDS) expressed fear that Navalny’s death in Russian state custody and the detention of many other opposition figures in state custody could leave no one to lead a domestic resistance movement should Russia go to war directly against Western states.[32] Girkin’s wife Miroslava Reginskaya expressed concern for Girkin himself but claimed that his health is good.[33]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-16-2024
Russian authorities arrested several hundred demonstrators on February 17 amid slightly larger demonstrations responding to imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s death. Russian opposition news outlets reported that Russian law enforcement has detained at least 350 people in over 30 Russian cities as crowds gathered to lay flowers in honor of Navalny over the last two days, including an estimated 230 people on February 17 alone.[31] Russian opposition sources also published footage of unspecified Russian actors picking up flowers laid at the Solovetsky Stone in Moscow City and other temporary memorials to Navalny throughout Russia on the night of February 16 to 17, attempting to erase any evidence of previous demonstrations.[32] Russian authorities seemed to tolerate smaller public gatherings immediately following the announcement of Navalny’s death but appeared less tolerant of and engaged in more concerted efforts to suppress the second day of larger demonstrations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-17-2024
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