Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued his nuclear saber-rattling rhetoric likely aimed in part at deterring Western aid to Ukraine. Medvedev claimed on February 7 that Russia has repeatedly “underscored” that it's “plans” do not include any conflict “with NATO and EU member states.”[12] Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, have recently and consistently rhetorically threatened NATO member states, and Kremlin-affiliated actors appear to be attempting to sow instability and set information conditions for possible future Russian aggressive actions against various European states.[13] Medvedev stated that NATO's military budget and population are significantly larger than Russia's, so that if a war were to break out between Russia and NATO, Russia would have to respond “asymmetrically” by using “ballistic and cruise missiles carrying special warheads” — referring to nuclear warheads — resulting in an “apocalypse.” Medvedev posted these claims on his English language X (formerly Twitter) channel and Russian language Telegram channel, suggesting that his statements are meant for both an international and domestic audience. Kremlin officials and pundits have consistently threatened to use nuclear weapons against NATO members, and ISW continues to assess that this nuclear rhetoric is aimed at deterring Western aid to Ukraine.[14] Medvedev‘s statements about NATO's larger size and military budget relative to Russia are likely aimed at domestically promoting Kremlin narratives that NATO — and the West generally — poses an existential threat to Russia — a claim the Kremlin has used to try to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-7-2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a routine phone call on February 8 that underscored China's hesitance to support Russia's desired bilateral Russo–Sino relationship while Russia forges deeper partnerships with Iran and North Korea. Putin and Xi exchanged views on the geopolitical situations surrounding Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East and reiterated their commitments to further bilateral trade and foreign policy cooperation.[23] Putin and Xi also reportedly criticized US interference in the internal affairs of other countries and US policies aimed at containing Russia and China.[24] Russian media coverage of the conversation continued efforts to portray Russian-Chinese relations as steadfast and at their “best period in history” despite recent Chinese attempts to avoid fully committing to a “no limits” partnership with Russia in the face of Western sanctions.[25]
Bloomberg reported on January 16 that at least two state-owned Chinese banks ordered reviews of their business with Russian clients and will sever ties with sanctioned Russian entities and entities with ties to the Russian defense industry after the US authorized secondary sanctions against financial institutions in December 2023.[26] The Kremlin has recently signaled increased rhetorical support for and economic cooperation with Iran and North Korea as its dependence on both countries for drones, missiles, and ammunition grows.[27] Iran has consistently supplied Russian forces with Shahed-136/-131 drones throughout the course of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and North Korea recently began supplying Russia with domestically produced ballistic missiles and artillery ammunition.[28]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2024
In an interview with Carlson, Putin spoke about his conversation with Zelensky.
“Volodya [Zelensky], what are you doing? Why do you support neo-Nazis in Ukraine today when your father fought against fascism? He was a front-line soldier. I won’t say what he answered, that’s a separate issue,” the Russian President said.
However, Zelensky’s father was born in 1947.
Newly appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi identified several of his goals as commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Syrskyi stated that his primary agenda is to set clear and detailed plans for the Ukrainian command as well as to facilitate the quick distribution and delivery of necessary materiel to combat units deployed throughout the theater.[14] Syrskyi stated that he intends to balance between having Ukrainian forces conduct combat missions and building Ukraine's combat power by restoring and training Ukrainian units.[15] Syrskyi added that the introduction of new technical solutions and the implementation of lessons learned from successful modern combat experience, specifically with drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems, is a path towards Ukrainian victory, echoing themes from former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi's recent focus on using technological innovation and adaptation to offset Russian forces‘ numerical advantages.[16] Syrskyi further discussed these goals at a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on February 9 in which the two discussed plans for improving logistics and the quality of training for Ukrainian forces in 2024.[17]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2024
Syrskyi plans
bkmk
The Russian State Duma is considering a bill aimed at further censoring actors designated as “foreign agents,” likely aimed at censoring dissent from opposition media outlets and prominent information space voices. Head of the Russian State Duma Commission on Investigations of Foreign Interference in Internal Affairs Vitaly Piskarev stated on February 10 that the Duma has prepared and is considering a bill that will ban Russian citizens and companies from advertising on platforms owned by entities designated as “foreign agents.”[26] Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin added that Russia should prevent foreign agents from earning any income in Russia.[27] This bill will heavily impact Russian opposition media sources, many of which are legally designated as foreign agents. These media outlets may have to shutter their operations or move primary operations outside of Russia to maintain their sources of income, which may impact their ability to reliably report on news in Russia. Other information space actors, such as opposition-leaning media outlets without the foreign agent label or fringe ultranationalist milbloggers who rely on advertising revenue from their Telegram channels, may further self-censor their content to avoid earning the foreign agent designation and maintain sources of income. The Kremlin is notably cracking down on dissent in and consolidating control over the Russian information space ahead of the March 2024 elections, and this bill likely aims to severely restrict opposition media sources while reinforcing pressures to self-censor in the Russian information space.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2024
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on February 11 that Russian President Vladimir Putin's February 8 interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson was aimed at justifying Russia's invasion of Ukraine to an American audience.[67] Peskov claimed that Americans “traditionally know little” about foreign countries and that it was important for Putin to convey his “historical vision” to the United States.
The Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation reported on February 11 that Russian information actors are attempting to portray newly appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as a Russian and a Soviet in order to discredit Syrskyi and sow domestic distrust of the Ukrainian military.[68] ISW has observed Russian milbloggers and officials engaging in this information operation following Syrskyi’s appointment on February 8.[69] Syrskyi was deployed to Kharkiv Oblast during the 1980s and chose to remain in Ukraine and join the Ukrainian army when the Soviet Union collapsed.[70] Syrskyi chose to serve Ukraine against Russia even though he was born in Russia. Syrskyi has commanded Ukrainian troops against Russian-backed proxy forces and the Russian military since 2014.[71]
French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne stated on February 10 that he hopes to announce a joint project to search for and counter Russian disinformation and interference in European politics with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski following their upcoming meeting in Paris on February 12.[72] Sejourne stated that the project will work to publicly explain the “tools” of Russian disinformation and provide evidence of disinformation in European politics. The French Foreign Ministry recently summoned the Russian ambassador to France after a Russian strike in Ukraine killed two French humanitarian workers amid a reported “upsurge” in Russian disinformation targeting France.[73] ISW recently observed Russian disinformation campaigns targeting France, which were aimed at constraining ongoing and future French security assistance to Ukraine.[74]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2024
“Tanks will blockade the Kremlin, and the president will be given an honorable pension.” We read Shoigu’s secret report on the “coup that threatens Russia. “
We wrote that Sergei Shoigu prepared a secret report to Vladimir Putin. https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=5888#5888 In it, he accuses General Mikhail Teplinsky of preparing a military coup. We have reviewed this document and offer you the most important points contained in it.
Let us note right away: we have no other evidence of what was written, except for the opinions of Shoigu and several sources in the Ministry of Defense. But the document was prepared by the minister, so it certainly deserves attention. Another important point. The report is written in a complex manner, with a large number of specific military terms. We retell it in a more understandable language, without distorting the essence in any way.
Shoigu claims that a coup in Russia could happen in March, before the presidential elections or even during the voting. The blow, he said, is being prepared in several directions. “Teplinsky is ready to immediately withdraw the troops of the Dnepr group from the front. They will have to make a quick forced march and take control of Dzhankoy, Simferopol, and a little later - Sevastopol and several other key cities. It is expected that the military in Crimea will massively go over to the side of the rebels,” the document says.
Another strike, according to Shoigu, could allegedly be directed towards Moscow. Tanks and other armored vehicles, as well as up to 20-25 thousand “military loyal to Teplinsky,” will have to go there. They, the report states, are going to “blockade the Kremlin and major government buildings. And without bloodshed or with minimal resistance, take control of the situation in the capital and the country.”
The third direction of attack is Rostov-on-Don and the headquarters of the Southern Military District, “which at one time Prigozhin easily took control of.”
The document also states the following: “The rebels, taking advantage of the experience of bandits from the Wagner PMC, hope to easily realize their criminal plans. They expect that Vladimir Vladimirovich will resign himself to the will of the military and bloodlessly give up power. It is assumed that he will be left with one or two of his current residences and given a very good and honorable pension, with access to all benefits. After the military comes to power, decisions will be made to abandon the [operation in Ukraine] in its current ineffective (according to many) form. It's hard to say whether a more serious war will break out, or whether the rebels will sign peace agreements with the enemy.”
There are a number of other points in the document; in total, it takes up 12 pages. We will not publish it in full at the request of our sources.
It is interesting that Putin has not yet familiarized himself with the report. According to interlocutors at the Ministry of Defense, many around the president consider the document “nonsense and unscientific fiction”. And they don't want Vladimir Vladimirovich to waste time reading it.
And those around General Teplinsky refused to comment on the report at all. “It's high time for Shoigu to resign and become a writer. This will probably work out better for him than being Minister of Defense. According to our information, this resignation is not far off , so let him play around,” said a military man close to Mikhail Yuryevich [Teplinsky].
“This year will be especially scary.” Erdogan “smelled blood” and conveyed new threats to Putin regarding Crimea
After the postponement of Vladimir Vladimirovich's visit to Turkey, Erdogan intensified the fight to gain control (at least temporarily) of Crimea .
“He no longer hesitates to threaten. Over the past week, four messages have arrived through diplomatic channels. One directly and most brazenly says: “Give us Crimea. The year has just begun, and you have already suffered huge losses there. If you don't give it away, this year will be especially terrible. There will be a lot of blood, fire and victims.” Can you imagine what a bastard this “respected partner” of ours is? - a high-ranking source in the Foreign Ministry complained to us. Another confirmed this information and believes that “Erdogan smelled blood, sees our vulnerabilities in Crimea and becomes impudent.” “
In the process of fighting for control of the peninsula, the Turkish president last year already made threats that serious problems would await Crimea. Unfortunately, those threats were confirmed, after which the enemy launched several attacks on this region of Russia that were destructive for our army.
“Erdogan really gets impudent. By refusing Vladimir Vladimirovich's visit, we gave him a powerful signal: stop it! If he doesn't understand, there will be more serious actions,” our source in the Kremlin said about this.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3588
Previous info
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=5708#5708
Putin said to Tucker that Russia started in 862. But he did not say that at that time, Moskow area was a swampy forest with no civilization at all. But Kyiv already existed, and the Rurikid dynasty started ruling there in 882 (before them, Kyiv was ruled by Askold and Dyr since 860). By 1100, Kyiv became 4th largest city in Europe (much bigger than Paris or London those days), and Moskow was not yet founded (its founding date is 1147). The founder of Moskow is buried in Kyiv, you can come to his grave whenever you want.
And that state was called Rus or Ruthenia. The emperor of Bysanthium called it “Rossia” in 10th century, so it was just the Greek spelling of “Rus”. In 13th century, the Pope was calling Danylo “King of Rus” while Alexander Nevsky was called “Duke of Suzdal”. Even in 17th century, Ukrainian Hetman Bohdan Khmelnitskyi was calling himself “the Hetman of Rus”.
So Moskow was a colony of Rus and was never called “Rus” officially before 18th century. Old kings of Rus oficially called it “Zalissia” (”The land behind the forest”). They started the first state only in 1157, and were calling themselves Suzdalese (after the city of Suzdal). Their first newspaper was called “The News of Moskovian state”. There is a coin of Peter first with “Moskovian rouble” engraved on it. Ivan Fedorov, the first book printer of Moskovia escaped to Ukraine just 2 years after printing his book, and he was identifying himself as Moskovian.
But in 1721, after taking control of the lands of the ancient Rus, Moskovia renamed themselves to Russia officially (and took the 2-headed eagle of Bysanthium too). And then they made a strange story that Rus “migrated” to Moskow escaping from the Golden Horde. Which is weird, because they should have escaped in the opposite direction. And there are no records about any mass migrations. Also, Kyiv was paying tribute to the Horde for 80 years only, while Moskow was there for 240 years, and their elites mixed as result (e.g. Ivan the Terrible was Rurikid by father and Genghizid by mother).
Buttom line: As political unit, Ukraine started in 9th century as Kingdom of Rus. Moskovia as a political unit started in 1157 as the Principality of Vladimir-Suzdal. Saying that Russia started in Kyiv is like saying that Argentina started as the Kingdom of Castile in the 9th century or that the USA started as the Kingdom of Wessex in 6th century. There is a connection, but a VERY remote one.
PS: the map of 1570 shows “Rvssia” in modern Ukraine and “Moskovia” in modern Russia.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7161662397886283776/
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