Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
24/ Shoigu’s medal “For the return of Crimea” has an interesting story. Its existence was denied until 2018, when Shoigu first wore in it public. The medal dates the start of the operation to seize Crimea as “20.02.14” – while Viktor Yanukovych was still the president of Ukraine.
Russian investigative journalists discovered that the contract for the medals was advertised as early as December 2013, only a month after the Euromaidan protests began in Kyiv, and were concluded on 13 January 2014, with Mosshtamp Plant LLC awarded the contract.
This suggests that Russia was planning to seize Crimea well before Yanukovych was deposed on 22 February, and probably intended to seize it whatever the outcome of the protests and the ‘referendum’. Russian propaganda had claimed Crimean was Russian since as early as 2001.
Gerashchenko:
My comment to a local media from a Kyiv street during a Russian attack on Kyiv today. “Attacks will continue while Putin is alive. But God will hear the prayers of Ukrainians.” Glory to Ukrainian air defense. Glory to our Warriors. Glory to our Allies who provide us with air defense systems.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1663118077687373827
Contracts for a medal for a military operation before the crisis precipitating the operation started?
Putin was going to invade annex Crimea before Maidan happened.
yes
#1706 We publish a statement by Yevgeny Prigozhin:
“The other day, several political technologists came to me who worked at one time in various of my projects. And they said that they were going to start a telegram channel in which they would collect all the negativity about me and the Wagner PMC and explain where it came from and who invented it.
I have absolutely no objection, I have nothing to do with this telegram channel, but I won't ban or correct the guys either. It's even convenient. You can read all the negativity about me and the Wagner PMC in one place. The Telegram channel, at their request, is called KNS . As far as I understand, in construction language it is a sewage pumping station. To me, the name is great.”
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1083
and here is the канализационная насосная станция:
KNS
12 315 subscribers
We, a group of political scientists, have decided not to ignore the huge number of negative statements against Wagner PMC and Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Here we will publish our own investigations and unravel the threads. From May 26 we will start work.
Some quotes from the first days:
According to the experience of the Great Patriotic War, prisoners ran away from the battlefield in huge numbers and were found to be ineffective. Prigogine achieved high efficiency of their work. And their losses do not reduce Prigozhin’s business qualities, since their disposal was one of the tasks facing him. As Prigozhin himself stated: their losses amounted to 20%, which is a meager figure compared to 80% of losses during the Great Patriotic War. According to confirmed information from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the released prisoners had a 25-fold decrease in crime.
Prigozhin, in his public statements, calls for a fight against bureaucrats, thereby inflicting a severe blow on Nezygar’s “main” readers.
It is important to note here that Prigozhin always says “the so-called” special operation and frankly says that everything should have been decided in 2014, and not now, when it is too late. And very often reminds of failures in politics since 2014. The only thing that Prigozhin does not criticize is Putin's decision to launch a special operation.
In fact, only Prigozhin coped with the tasks set by the president, unlike the regular army, the Ministry of Defense and others like them.
https://t.me/sewage_system/9
According to our source from Tsalikov’s entourage of the Deputy Defense Ministry, after Prigozhin’s statement about the capture of Bakhmut, that is, on May 20, two meetings were held at once. The first is at the command headquarters in Rostov, and the second is on Frunzenskaya Embankment. The main question on the agenda was what to do with all this. They thought that by depriving the Wagner of ammunition, they would be able to do away with them, but everything happened exactly the opposite. Wagner won, its fighters became heroes.
The meeting lasted until midnight, among the voiced solutions to the “problem” were the following:
- accuse Prigozhin of lying, saying that Bakhmut is still not taken in its entirety;
- inflict precision strikes on the Wagners, but this idea was immediately dismissed, due to the good disguise of the “musicians”;
- Eliminate Prigozhin himself, and transfer command over PMCs to the army.
By midnight, a solution had not been found, so at midnight the Ministry of Defense had to inform Vladimir Putin that Bakhmut had been taken, and it was Wagner who had taken it.
After that, the light was on in Tsalikov’s office all night. He talked, among other things, with the head of the useless “cyber troops” Konovalchik. Together they agreed on information for Telegram channels, and at first they tried to publish this post in VChK-OGPU and in Brief, but they refused to accept it. But at 9 o'clock in the morning the distributor was found - “Moscow Laundry”.
Vladimir Putin personally gave Prigozhin carte blanche to destroy the ossified system, since it will no longer be possible to change and fix a broken machine. That is why the president has repeatedly supported the Wagner PMC, presented awards, and also congratulated the fighters on the capture of Bakhmut. This can be called a landmark event, since the head of state personally emphasized who exactly defended the city.
On May 22, 2023, a meeting between Putin and Prigozhin took place, at which the president agreed with Prigozhin to increase criticism of the elites. The reaction was not long in coming: the very next day, Prigozhin’s long interview with Konstantin Dolgov was published.
The thesis that Prigozhin is in conflict and undermines Putin's authority can be voiced for two reasons.
1. Delusion. This option is based on the assumption that Putin's team is something united and whole, and Prigozhin’s criticism is directed at the team as a whole.
No, the team is heterogeneous. First, there are representatives of competing political groups at almost every level. Secondly, there are different structures and divisions, there is also competition between them. Thirdly, there are interpersonal relationships between individual officials, regardless of influence groups and structures.
The SVO shows that the existing competitive struggle of officials (especially from the Ministry of Defense) does more harm. The desire to excel, to prevent the internal opponent from effectively completing the task, to emphasize the failure of the opponent - lead to casualties among our fighters.
Prigogine rightly emphasizes the merits of officials who are effective (Manturov, Surovikin, etc.), and criticizes inefficient ones (Gerasimov, etc.). The main purpose of criticism is that the team (even if heterogeneous) can perform its tasks, and not engage in internal struggle. This requires personnel decisions, which Prigozhin speaks about.
2. Deliberate promotion of the conflict thesis. This option is beneficial to many political actors both in the Russian Federation and abroad. Firstly, the desire to weaken the head of the most effective power structure is obviously beneficial to Western opponents. Therefore, we see attempts to form such an opinion among the elites of the Russian Federation in order to level the active participation of Prigogine in the NWO. And the absolutely right decision is to impose a conflict in the media space so that Putin makes an appropriate decision regarding Prigozhin. Secondly, the promotion of this thesis is also beneficial for some officials of the Russian Federation, who fear the effective manager Prigogine.
It looks as if Prigozhin is betting on a big event in the Kremlin. See https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=4387#4387
Thanks AdmSmith. There's a scene in "The Running Man" where Jim Brown's character corrects the Running Woman -- "Last season's losers." Those 26K convicts who've served Prigozhin with honor and been pardoned and sent home? All of them were killed in Wagner Group's dead-end campaign in Bakhmut, along with the 15K or so reported killed, making the WG's KIAs about 40K.
29 May: Russians Try to Destroy PATRIOTS with ROCKETS... DOESN’T WORK WELL…
Day 460: Today Russian forces conducted a massive drone and missile strike.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIpdwx7Vcz0
Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.
Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28.
Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.
Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, particularly focusing on Marinka.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and are expanding fortifications in Mariupol.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian reconnaissance in force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian military command appears to be introducing doctrinal organization to some of its irregular formations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on May 29 that will further strengthen the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely not hospitalized as of May 29.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup. Prigozhin stated on May 29 that there are different types of coups across the globe – including a “chaotic military coup” in Sudan – which take too long and result in major conflicts.[19] Prigozhin argued that Wagner does not have a large enough army required to carry out a coup and claimed that Wagner has good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin vaguely implied that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu could stage a coup as he has access to the Russian Special Forces. Prigozhin added that while some individuals in Russia are expecting a revolution Wagner is only advocating for select corrections to the Russian system. Prigozhin’s response to Girkin notably follows his response to a media inquiry in which he hypothesizes about who could have authorized the reported ban on mentions of Wagner on the Russian state media, and even considered Putin.[20] Prigozhin then stated that there is an effort in Russia to avoid recognizing the legitimate heroes of this war and that “the officials-bureaucrats who run the Russian state today must remain the heroes and they are the only ones who can be thanked.” He added that “if they aren't thanked, then they say, ‘Fine, heck with it, praise the president,’” implying that Putin is receiving unearned praise and thanks because of the unwillingness of Russian bureaucrats to honor those who truly deserve it. Prigozhin has dramatically increased the number of direct references to Putin since May 9 – after he indirectly criticized Putin during the Victory Day holiday.[21]
details: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-29-2023
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1663421317742227456
videos
“Smelly creatures, what are you doing? You are cattle. Tear your sh*t out of your offices. Why the f*ck do you allow these drones to fly to Moscow?”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1663471147592105985
This is what he published about this (without the meaty Russian profanity)
Now as for the drones in Moscow. Of course, I am aware and, of course, I worry about it too. As a person who understands this somewhat, I can tell you that many years ago it was necessary to deal with these programs. That we are now years behind our opponents, years, maybe decades. But in order to catch up with them, we do absolutely nothing at all - I want to emphasize this. This is me as a specialist more or less in this area, as a consumer of these problems. And now, as a citizen of the Russian Federation, I want to answer you as follows. Regarding the drones that fly over Moscow and in Moscow. Stinky creatures, what are you doing? You are cattle! Get your shit out of the offices you've been put in to defend this country. You are the Department of Defense. You didn't do a damn thing to step on. Why the fuck are you allowing these drones to fly to Moscow? The fact that they are flying to Rublyovka to your home, and to hell with it! Let your houses burn. And what do ordinary people do when drones with explosives crash into their windows? And therefore, as a citizen, I am deeply indignant that these scum sit quietly and sit on their fat assholes smeared with expensive creams. And therefore, I believe that the people have every right to ask them these questions, these bastards.
But I have already warned about this many times, but no one wants to listen. Because I'm angry and frustrating bureaucrats who have a great life.”
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1089
However, we still don't know if the drones were sent by the Ukrainians or the Russians, and in the latter case: Which Russian group?
Here is Prigozhin with Englisg subtitles
https://twitter.com/doritoeubanks/status/1663472649996206081
I often hear the question: why does Ukraine need so many weapons?Take it for what it is, there are several sides to this.The answer is very simple: Putin has turned Russia into a giant military production plant that costs it very little and with very cheap work force, at the same time receiving equipment from its allies and having large amounts of weapons in storage.
Some information is classified, of course. But here is some data, obtained from official/open sources. We are dealing with a powerful enemy with vast resources. We can't win without a sufficient amount of modern weapons.
- 3,801 Russian tanks were destroyed by Ukrainian Armed Forces (via General Staff as of 29th May). In March, Medvedev claimed Russia would produce 1,500 new tanks in 2023. Several hundred of them would be new T-90M and T-14, while most would be old tanks out of storage.
- Russia has about 1,000 T-72 and T-82 tanks in storage, 10,000 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 260 self-propelled "Pion" guns and approximately 7,000 missiles for S-300 systems.
- 1,056 rockets were shot down by Ukrainian air defense (via General staff as of 29th May). According to @DI_Ukraine, Russia can produce 2 Kinzhal, 25 Kalibr, 35 X-101 and 5 Iskander-M rockets per month.
- Supplies from Russian allies:
Iran: Shahed and Mojaher drones, shells for tanks and artillery, and, possibly, medium range Fateh missiles.
Belarus: T-72 tanks, Ural trucks and ammunition.
North Korea: artillery shells, grenade launchers and rockets.- Head of Russian"Rostech" (main Russian state corporation for civic and military production) claimed that Russian military production industry is working 24/7, in three shifts. "Rostech's" main enterprises: "high-precision complexes", United Aircraft Corporation, "Russian Helicopters", freight cars production etc.
Russia does have vast resources and their military production is increasing. Their stocks of existing weapons have depleted so they have to increase production. What they are planning to produce looks less per year than what they have lost. Their rate of production for now does not look like it will exceed what they have lost. Then there is Russia is slowly changing its tactics. Russia can keep on fighting for years if they want.
The existing arms and production of Ukraine and allies has caused all the losses to the Russian army. The US and Europe are increasing arms production for a prolonged conflict. Collectively, the total arms given to Ukraine is a lower proportion of what Ukraine's allies are capable compared to Russia. Ukraine's tactics are evolving too. Russia has not won and Ukraine has not lost in all this.
Both sides are transitioning from short war to long war thinking.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2023
Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to downplay the drone attack on Moscow to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine.
The drone attack on Moscow generated varied responses from the Russian information space.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to conceal the high Russian losses in Ukraine by artificially inflating Ukrainian casualties in the war.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Russia will not enter negotiations while trying to win the war.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground attack south of Kreminna.
The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of May 30.
Russian forces made marginal advances amid continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in Russia.
Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2023
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