Posted on 10/29/2020 8:12:32 PM PDT by usafa92
Nevada very hard to poll
a lot of right-leaning independents, mormons, L’s who normally don’t vote
Trump is getting heavy rural turnout so far
I would think seeing some more lockdowns starting in other countries would away some votes in Reno and Vegas. They can’t afford lockdowns.
Beijing Biden below 50% is always a good sign but margin of fraud will be tough in NV. Rural turnout however is a fantastic sign for AZ and Upper Midwest.
I think Nevada is razor-thin close. Minnesota is also close. If there truly is a red wave building, then Nevada and Minnesota will go Trump carried by enthusiasm, but if Republican efforts wane over the weekend, then it will be a tough fight.
Someone, it may have been LS, said the entertainment industry does not want lockdowns ..
Rural turnout may make Oregon closer than usual. Maybe within 5 points.
I don’t think Nevada is possible. The Democrat voter fraud machine is at full force there. They mailed out ballots to their entire voter roll...which everybody knows contains all sorts of errors, people who have died, people who have moved away, etc. The Democrats can simply manufacture tens or even hundreds of thousands of votes and there’s no way to prove they are fake. They’re supposed to check signatures, but they’re not even doing that.
Oh goody! Another poll to stress about!
(Yawn)
To win Nevada, Trump needs to get at least 60 percent of the vote. Clark County usually pulls out 40,000+ votes out of a few car trunks when needed.
It’s almost impossible. That’s why Trump overpolled so much there in 2016 (by over 3%)
Clark County is one of the most corrupt places on earth. DJT would have to win honestly by a decent margin to compensate for what the dem fraud machine has planned.
Hopeful. But that’s a heavy lift.
The wife and I wanted to retire in the Vegas area when that time comes due to the sheer amount of entertainment there for reasonable prices and the proximity to so many state and national parks in the west/northwest. Then, we began to research the politics of the state. The corrupt union politics, the current lockdown...we changed our minds after doing our research.
It is very difficult to ascertain the accuracy of any poll. There are just too many decent people who absolutely refuse to take unsollicited calls and discuss their personal political opinions with strangers.
It’s really annoying that Trafalgar doesn’t report the movement since their last poll. Not even in the full pdf on their website. You have to google around until you find the prior poll.
The whole country is hard to poll. Most Trump supporters rightly don't trust pollsters and are worried about being doxed, fired, have a relationship end, or be attacked for supporting the President.
Here is my take on Nevada
I can’t trust any poll when I know I don’t answer the phone or do a online poll and neither does anyone in my family or close friends. So lets get that out of the way.
Nevada - Normally I would say Nevada stays blue thanks to the SEIU Union in Las Vegas. The entire state relies on the hospitality industry for its income. And that is why I think Nevada is in play.
Vegas is not up and running. Things there are running at a fraction of what it should be as the nation is still in lockdown.
As for the Presidential Election there are two very different choices.
Biden warned in the last debate of a DARK WINTER, he is all for increased shut downs. When that happens nobody is going to Vegas to play any time soon.
Trump will open America back up, get the economy roaring, the GDP shows that we bounced back pretty good but there is allot more that can be done. With a roaring economy, people will go to Las Vegas to have fun and spend money.
For that reason alone I think Nevada is in play. Let the SEIU Union join others to ignore their Union bosses and vote for Trump. It is the number one kitchen table issue to most if not all Americans.
The Democrats in NV have one very real and very serious problem they have never faced before—and I don’t think they can overcome it.
Their number one strength was mobilizing casino workers and their unions.
I think the smart folks here can figure out the rest....hint...coronavirus....reduced tourism.....
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