Posted on 10/27/2020 5:55:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
Big day for the Patriots yesterday.
That was definitely a touchdown and not a safety!
Today R IPEV will exceed R VBM absolute numbers
Ds may not achieve that until this weekend or election day.
“10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%”
Gap down to 4.8 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Getting there.
Speedy, thanks so much for doing this daily update. One question, how do you account for “independents” or is that even an issue in Florida?
Just checking...if I remember from the other day, is 300,000 the “key” number for early voting? Is that the number where the Republicans can overcome them?
D VBM return rate is 68.1%. Yesterday was 66.8% (only increased 1.3 points!)
R VBM return rate is 64.8%
3.3 point gap. Gap is closing.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Team Go
Thank you Speedy. I should be giving you money that I might give a counselor to help reduce my stress.
Yes, I think 300k and below, Trump wins.
At Election Eve 2016, Ds led by 96k. Trump ultimately won Florida by 113k. So Rs netted 200k that year.
We can net 300k this year with more Rs voting on Election Day and net adds to R voter registration numbers.
More dems voting....??
That doesn’t mean they voted for biden.
Yesterday was a TD with 2-point conversion. Hoping for more of the same today.
“One question, how do you account for “independents” or is that even an issue in Florida?”
According to exit polls, Trump won Indies by 53k.
If Indies break hard for Biden in huge numbers, of course that could flip the state. If R turnout decreases, that could flip the state.
We have to estimate based on some assumptions. I assume R turnout stays the same and Trump wins Indies.
I voted in Florida yesterday.
How much better is Florida EV data for determining how the election is going than other swing states like NC, Ohio, Wisconsin, etc.? I know the tracking of party identification/voting is helpful.
And not all Pubbies are voting for Trump.
I am con corned about hurricane Zeta. If it knocks down the vote in the panhandle for a couple days then the Dims in s FL may flip the state. Those folks in the panhandle MUST vote even in the face of a possible hurricane .
It wont effect the vote at all. It is at best a cat1 and will be west of FL.
“how do you account for “independents” or is that even an issue in Florida?”
I’m am registered (I) in FL and voted Trump
Zeta will be a CAT 1 at most when she makes landfall. Her track jogged her West. She should be through the Panhandle by Thursday night. Plenty of time to get cleaned up before Election Day.
“D VBM return rate is 68.1%. Yesterday was 66.8% (only increased 1.3 points!)”
1.3 increase yesterday was the lowest for a weekday I can remember this election.
If that continued: 1.3*6 = 7.8 + 68.1 = 75.9%
Ds would be doomed at 75.9% turnout. That number would be a kick in the teeth to Ds who were off to such a fast pace in returns.
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