Posted on 10/22/2020 6:25:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Not at this point.
Our IPEV still hasn’t reached Dem VBM numbers.
We still have troops in reserve.
Some sanity:
“A New York state court appeals division ruled that Paul Manafort, who for months ran President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, cannot be prosecuted on state criminal charges related to the same conduct that led to his federal convictions.”
“The ruling upheld a judge’s decision, which said that the rule of double jeopardy barred Manafort from being prosecuted for those crimes by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.’s office.”
My hope was to hit a GOP IPEV advantage of 137K today. At 126K right now.
That could happen.
Dem VBM return rate was 54.3% yesterday. At 58.0% today.
Up 3.7% in a day.
That is a bad rate for us.
Still waiting for it to slow down and waiting...
Meh. Gap is still shrinking. It will taper off all of a sudden just like NC.
Combined D lead down to 434,663 from 462,774 yesterday.
Down 28k so far today.
Was down 24k yesterday.
Could break into the 300ks tomorrow. Ok. 399k.
Even though Florida is always close, it is amazing how few counties are close. In 2016, most counties were decidedly for Trump or Clinton. Well, most were decidedly for Trump and a few big ones were decidedly for Clinton.
Three exceptions in 2016 were Duval, Pinellas, and Polk. All three were extremely close in terms of the number of Democrats and Republicans that voted.
Duval: 42.52% D to 41.11 R% ——————> Clinton loses by 1.38%
Pinellas: 38.45% D to 38.23% R -—————> Clinton loses by 1.12%
Polk: 38.98% D to 39.61% R -—————> Clinton loses by 14%
What does this mean? I don’t really know. But I wonder if NPA’s adopt the leanings of their neighbors. For example, Clinton won by larger percentages in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward than the already considerable differences between Ds and Rs.
Also, Polk is more rural than Duval or Pinellas. I wonder if there are more cross-over D’s in places like this.
It will be interesting to keep an eye on these 3 counties that had a close number of Ds and Rs voting.
“But I wonder if NPA’s adopt the leanings of their neighbors.”
This is a theory of Ravi.
It makes sense to me.
IPEV in Duval just eclipsed VBM votes in sheer number. Must be the 1st county to do so.
“SCOTUS says PA can count ballots for 3 days after election.”
ACB should be seated on the court Monday. That recent denial of a stay is expected to be appealed again and since the current ruling by the PA supreme court overturned existing PA law which called for ballots to be received by election day there is a good chance the stay will be granted once the requisite 5 votes are there.
Fingers crossed...:-)
Someone mentioned Duval is the youngest county in Florida. That may have something to do with it. In NC the VBM was heavily slanted to the elderly in all parties.
Clay beat ‘em
Maybe. Outside my knowledge base.
What FL county will be the first where overall turnout of our Registered Voters proportionally matches the DEMs?
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Hendry and Taylor are already there. Those are quite small. Maybe there will be some midsized ones like Clay too.
There is an option to measure NPA turnout on the map relative to 2016 NPA turnout. They seem to be strongly turning out in the Panhandle (if you discount the counties that haven’t started IPEV).
You could interpret that as red NPAs unusually motivated, or as a case of Simpson’s Paradox where these NPAs are turning out just because they’re older than the urban NPAs. Your choice. I lean towards good news just because I don’t see the younger NPAs being willing to stay in these long socially distanced lines,
Good catch.
Makes sense
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