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Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?
Townhall.com ^ | October 13, 2020 | Pat Buchanan

Posted on 10/13/2020 10:33:30 AM PDT by Kaslin

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To: PastorBooks

This goes with what I was reading before. It’s amazing that people don’t see it.


61 posted on 10/13/2020 7:23:33 PM PDT by Bulwyf
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To: PastorBooks

[The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/]


Note I’m not saying that they won’t venture beyond their borders. I think it’s highly likely they will, but their targets will be close to home, for the usual reasons - easier to take and hold. And they will venture forth, not primarily for resources, but for personal glory, like pretty much every conqueror in history. And each success, and addition to population and resources, will lead them to expand their horizons. Which is why it would be good to stop them early. We embargoed Japan to prevent it from conquering China, thereby acquiring a springboard for further acquisitions. Similarly, we need to prevent China from gaining any more territory. It’s already so population- and resource-rich that it’s way more more threatening than Japan was when it struck at Pearl Harbor. We don’t need China gaining any more land or population.


62 posted on 10/13/2020 7:30:38 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Bulwyf

[This goes with what I was reading before. It’s amazing that people don’t see it.]


I read this essay probably a decade ago. There are no references to needing to get rid of tens of millions of single Chinese men. There is a claim that China will run out of resources, which is a crock, given that China produces more oil than all of the EU combined - 4 million barrels a day. China also has a lower population density than the EU. To pay for imports, it ran a massive trade surplus even back then that produced enough foreign currency reserves to cover the cost without deflating the yuan. China is the world’s biggest producer of gold, and is top 5 in many minerals. China’s poverty is completely man-made rather than the product of sparse natural resources.

There are a couple of other problems with the essay, anachronisms almost. It keeps referring to Comrade Xiaoping. That’s like saying President Donald. Another problem is the repeated references to foreign personalities that the average Chinese military man probably has no idea about. It’s got the feel of Tom Clancy’s Chinese characters in The Bear and The Dragon - an under-researched caricature of the real thing.

A third problem with the essay has to do with the historical fact that a lunge for the Americas would be a complete flip of China’s tendency to go for territory close to home. The reasons are completely practical. Faraway territories are hard to conquer and hard to keep within the empire once conquered, given that commanders have every incentive to strike out on their own. Vietnam was once part of a Chinese empire. Then the local Chinese govenor decided he preferred to be king in his own domain than a governor in somebody else’s empire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Tuo

The casual talk about nuclear war is antithetical to Chinese strategists. Their principal concern is preservation of kith and kin, followed by their place in history. No general who gets 500m Chinese killed is going to look good in the history books. Leaders go to war to enhance, not blacken their reputations.


63 posted on 10/13/2020 7:32:03 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

They have been invading Canada with great success and Africa as well.


64 posted on 10/13/2020 7:35:41 PM PDT by Bulwyf
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To: Bulwyf

We should already have been at war with China. The Covid thing should have been a green light. Knowing what they have been doing, their buildup in the South China sea, their attacks on Vietnamese oil rigs, their infiltrating spy network in U.S. Gov and military Infrastructures that has been going on for years, those we’ve known about, and those yet to be known.
We will have to fight them sooner or later, or appease and capitulate. It would have been easier to offensively surprise them and take out key military threats. But they have much more advanced weapon systems now, in just the last couple of years. If you have been watching them they are strutting their stuff, but they look jumpy to me. Not so much scared as anticipating something, a nervousness. Look into their activities in the last year you’ll see what I mean. It may be THEY who will going on a first offensive military strike as they are already doing so in sowing discourd, misinformation and social chaos in our country and in others. it will be a mess. Put your faith in Jesus and we can go through anything here on this world, good or bad, knowing the prize and the joy that awaits us on the other side.


65 posted on 10/13/2020 8:02:55 PM PDT by Rainwave ("Work out your OWN salvation with fear and trembling")
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To: Rainwave

You are quite correct. The enemy within has aided and abetted the Chinese so much that their military hardware caught up very quickly. You’re also right regarding Jesus, he is the only hope. In the meantime, we occupy til he comes.


66 posted on 10/13/2020 8:44:24 PM PDT by Bulwyf
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To: Captain7seas

Thanks! Fascinating.

The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian
https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/


67 posted on 10/13/2020 11:05:42 PM PDT by familyop ( "Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy".)
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To: Captain7seas

Thanks! Fascinating! I’m putting some excerpts in this comment and am sure that more FReepers will be interested in following the link to read it all. Some history buffs will also notice similarities between the speech of General Chi Haotian and Nazi German officials of long ago (”living space,” etc.).

The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian
Quoted speech from The Epoch Times posted by J.R. Nyquist
September 11, 2019
https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/

“In 2005, THE EPOCH TIMES acquired a secret speech given by Defense Minister Chi Haotian to high-level Communist Party Cadres sometime before his retirement in 2003. Details given in Chi’s speech coincide with previously unpublished defector testimony on Sino-Russian military plans.

The speech follows:

Comrades,

Many years ago, there was a book titled Yellow Catastrophes. It said that, due to our following the American style of consumption, our limited resources would not long support the population and society would collapse, once our population reaches 1.3 billion. Now our population has already exceeded this limit, and we are now relying on imports to sustain our nation.
...
The reason that the United States remains today is that it has never seen war on its mainland. Once its enemies aim at the mainland, these enemies would reach Washington before its congress finishes debating and authorizes the president to declare war. But for us, we don’t waste time on these trivial things.
...
So, Only by breaking the blockade formed by the western countries headed by the United States can China grow and move toward the world!

Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space?
...
Only countries like the United States, Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.

Therefore, solving the “issue of America” is the key to solving all other issues. First, this makes it possible for us to have many people migrate there and even establish another China under the same leadership of the CCP.
...
It is said that the residents of the yellow race have a very low social status in the United States. We need to liberate them. Second, after solving the “issue of America,” the western countries of Europe would bow to us,
...
It is historical destiny that China and the United States will come to unavoidable confrontation on a narrow path and fight each other!
...
Only by using special means to “clean up” America will we be able to lead the Chinese people there. This is the only choice left for us. This is not a matter of whether we are willing to do it or not. What kind of special means is there available for us to “clean up America”?
...
Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves. There has been rapid development of modern biological technology, and new bio-weapons have been invented one after another. Of course, we have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of achieving our purpose of “cleaning up” America all of a sudden. When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focus instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country.

From a humanitarian perspective, we should issue a warning to the American people and persuade them to leave America and leave the land they have lived in to the Chinese people. Or at least they should leave half of the United States to be China’s colony, because America was first discovered by the Chinese. But would this work? If this strategy does not work, then there is only one choice left to us. That is, use decisive means to “clean up” America and reserve America for our use in a moment. Our historical experience has proven that as long as we make it happen, nobody in the world can do anything about us. Furthermore, if the United States as the leader is gone, then other enemies have to surrender to us.

Biological weapons are unprecedented in their ruthlessness, but if the Americans do not die then the Chinese have to die. If the Chinese people are strapped to the present land, a total societal collapse is bound to take place. According to the computation of the author of Yellow Peril, more than half of the Chinese will die, and that figure would be more than 800 million people! Just after the liberation, our yellow land supported nearly 500 million people, while today the official figure of the population is more than 1.3 billion. This yellow land has reached the limit of its capacity. One day, who knows how soon it will come, the great collapse will occur any time and more than half the population will have to go.

We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack, the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the United States.
...

[And much more. Worth reading!]


68 posted on 10/13/2020 11:38:00 PM PDT by familyop ( "Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy".)
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To: Zhang Fei
"The casual talk about nuclear war is antithetical to Chinese strategists. Their principal concern is preservation of kith and kin, followed by their place in history. No general who gets 500m Chinese killed is going to look good in the history books. Leaders go to war to enhance, not blacken their reputations."

"The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian" agrees with that, explaining that nuclear war would not serve the purpose of the CCP. According to the document, the General preferred bioweapons.

I posted some excerpts including the General's advice in favor of bioweapons here. The explanation against using nukes is in the copy of the lecture behind the link (where "genetic weapons" are also mentioned favorably).

69 posted on 10/13/2020 11:59:33 PM PDT by familyop ( "Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy".)
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To: Kaslin

If Trump is re-elected , then no.
Otherwise we and China will go to war, because of Biden’s weakness.


70 posted on 10/14/2020 12:17:53 AM PDT by mrsmith (US MEDIA: " Every 'White' cop is a criminal! And all the 'non-white' criminals saints!")
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To: familyop

[”The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian” agrees with that, explaining that nuclear war would not serve the purpose of the CCP. According to the document, the General preferred bioweapons.

I posted some excerpts including the General’s advice in favor of bioweapons here. The explanation against using nukes is in the copy of the lecture behind the link (where “genetic weapons” are also mentioned favorably).]


The other objections remain. A speech in which an American general referred to Trump as President Donald in a speech to the rank and file would be a gigantic no-no. In a place like China, it would probably be viewed as the unforgivable insult it is. Which is why no speech would be written like that. It’s just wrong, the way a purported State of the Union speech written in the style of a Speedy Gonzalez monologue would be.

It’s also hard to think of instances in Chinese history where the ruler attacked a strong power before attacking a weaker one or attacked a distant power before attacking a nearby one. It’s a question of cost-benefit calculations. Rulers have to contend with domestic rivals and potential unrest from the costs and fallout from unsuccessful campaigns. In the case of bio-weapons, they have to figure in the cost of an all-out nuclear attack that kills hundreds of millions of Chinese. I’d argue they’d have to factor in genocidal revenge attacks that zero out the entire Chinese population.

Basically the strategy bruited in the speech is a giant roll of the dice for a country that doesn’t need to take any risks. Just from catch-up gains in technology, the Chinese economy will catch up to the US economy in the next decade. When Japan attacked at Pearl Harbor, it had an economy roughly 1/3 of the US (based on Angus Maddison’s massaged PPP numbers, but likely much lower in reality, given many things that make no sense) https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.590.924&rep=rep1&type=pdf Using PPP numbers, China’s GDP is already 20% bigger than the US’s.

Point being there is no real hurry, except for a given leader’s race against Father Time before his personal clock runs out. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) You might argue that Xi Jinping doesn’t have 30 years left in him to get his name up in neon lights. But to roll the dice on the complete annihilation of China by using a biological weapon just to get ahead of Father Time? While the gains would be huge, the risk is simply too big.


71 posted on 10/14/2020 12:39:28 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei
"There are a couple of other problems with the essay, anachronisms almost. It keeps referring to Comrade Xiaoping. That’s like saying President Donald. Another problem is the repeated references to foreign personalities that the average Chinese military man probably has no idea about. It’s got the feel of Tom Clancy’s Chinese characters in The Bear and The Dragon - an under-researched caricature of the real thing."

Well, I'm guessing that you know about The Epoch Times and what it is. Quite a few Chinese immigrants' kids are like that in a number of ways. ;)

True about expansionism traditionally involving nearby countries first. But then the PLA admires our ability to project military operations and probably wouldn't mind topping it in some way. I'm not saying that such an event is imminent, but it is a possibility. To me, pride and assumptions are probably the most glaring errors in the history of military strategy.

And western defense propaganda, with its multicultural nature, does sometimes include false details and omissions, but comprehensively, there is much truth in it. Propaganda from the World War 2 Axis, for example, contrasted, in that it presented a big picture to its people that was overly positive. It led to defeat for the Axis in the end.

72 posted on 10/14/2020 6:53:08 AM PDT by familyop ( "Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy".)
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To: Zhang Fei

Thank you for sharing your knowledge and thoughts. I’m interested in reading more. The considerations of a “roll of the dice” and “Father Time” are especially interesting.

Something else that might be interesting, though. Many nations do bio-warfare research. There are different ways of doing so, some of them for peaceful, healing purposes and defense. Hypothetical retaliations might be other than nuclear.

SARS-COV-2 is interesting, indeed.


73 posted on 10/14/2020 7:45:36 AM PDT by familyop ( "Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy".)
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To: roadcat
Let me know when China bombs Pearl Harbor, then I might entertain your idea of sending millions of our soldiers to China. Meanwhile, ain't happening.

So what do you think happens if the Chinese attack India or Taiwan.

Taiwan for instance is very close, has an "agreement" with the United Nations and United States... So do you think that we wouldn't send at least a couple of thousand men or ten thousand or one hundred thousand men to die for the liberty of Taiwan.

Bomb Pearl Harbor.... nah. Chinese won't bomb Pearl Harbor. But maybe an ally will pull a barge or container ship into Seattle, Port Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Texas City, Miami, Houston, New York, Norfolk... just toodle along with a container ship and detonate it in the harbor.

Then what? Then, what do you think happens to this country?

Of course a "war" like that would be impossible to occur. Because we are to interconnected to do stuff like "have a war". The Chinese aren't desperate enough to lose millions of men.

How about Europe? What do we do if Russia decides that the Russian citizens of Kallingrad Oblast need protection from the threat of the EU and the US? They feel "threatened by bases being moved from Germany to Poland"..... after all the geniuses in Obama/Bush administration protected Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea, right.

The second we become weak and they know that they are losing control of their populace.... well desperate men do desperate things.

I'm sure Chamberlain thought that Hitler could or would NEVER declare war on the world. Doesn't make sense. It never does.

Your confidence in the weakness of China and the certainty of no war remind me of the quote. "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.'

74 posted on 10/14/2020 9:01:54 PM PDT by Dick Vomer (2 Timothy 4:7 deo duce ferro comitante)
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To: roadcat

I agree with you. The next war will between the super powers will be electronic and biological. The brute force will be for regional conflicts.


75 posted on 10/14/2020 9:09:13 PM PDT by Dick Vomer (2 Timothy 4:7 deo duce ferro comitante)
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To: Dick Vomer
I agree with you. The next war will between the super powers will be electronic and biological. The brute force will be for regional conflicts.

Thank you for saying you agree. My point, is that we won't be sending millions of our soldiers to China. And China won't be sending millions of their soldiers to the U.S.A. That kind of "brute force" is for a bygone era. Adding to your statement of the next war between super powers, I would add a couple more.

One is psychological, by indoctrinating our own people and causing internal division - that is already happening. The Chinese are fomenting unrest and want to see us tear ourselves apart. In a sense, we are trying to do the same with their people, but the communist government is better at clamping down on their people and blocking our "westernization" of their people.

The second way of doing war is financial. The Chinese are seeking to undermine our financial governance, and they're doing a good job at that. They want to topple the dollar as an international monetary base. We successfully undermined the Soviet Union by bankrupting them, and we are trying to do the same to China. But the Chinese are really crafty at getting our own corporations to inject financial stability into China. I fear that our financial system may collapse before that of China, and then we'll be in deep crap.

What can save us in the next war with China, will be our technological edge. That includes any number of autonomous weapons systems in subs, and in outer space. I think our Pentagon, DARPA, etc. is way ahead of China (for now). We can cripple and starve them into chaos, because having 1.4 billion people is a liability.

76 posted on 10/15/2020 1:14:45 AM PDT by roadcat
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To: PreciousLiberty

China is going to make an overt move against Taiwan. Count on it. It’s a question when and not if.


77 posted on 10/15/2020 1:19:22 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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