Posted on 05/16/2020 12:24:04 PM PDT by absalom01
Part of whats going on in Spain, and elsewhere, is there are regions and countries where it just has not taken. And its not just a urban/rural split either.
In Spain it has for instance largely avoided Andalucia, with its big cities of Sevilla and Malaga, Valencia, Murcia, Galicia, the Canaries, Mallorca - most of “tourist” Spain in fact. This is confirmed by the excess mortality figures from civil records.
The same can be seen in Italy, with an even more distinct north-south split, and globally.
There will be more hot spots (e.g. meat plants) and then nursing homes that haven't been hit yet. But in general I think we are peak fatality rate now and it will drop from here.
There’s another option few people are talking about. Most people with serious COVID-19 are vitamin D deficient. People (especially those who belong to a vulnerable group) should optimalize their level of vitamin D. The optimal level is 100-150 nmol/l (40-60 ng/ml). President Trump, Republican governors, talk radio personalities, and others should urge people to take vitamin D. Many lives would be saved.
I think that’s exactly right.
If you look at the piece in El Pais, they actually have local data, by region, and it clearly shows large local variations. Looking at these reports as they come in, the data are showing “fat tails” — ie, a high standard deviation, ie, a pareto distribution.
Not just in spread, but in those most seriously affected. Huge impact on older and sicker people, so mild in some cases the person didn’t even know he had it.
I don’t buy the idea that there’s going to be a widely available vaccine anytime soon, and we’re going to have to figure out how to live with it for quite a while.
And then we need to hold China to account.
It’s hard to say, but NYC and LA county are finding large local variations, but somewhere in a neighborhood of 15% up to 20%, and that was a couple of weeks ago.
Averaged over the country? No one has any idea, but my point in posting this is that’s irrelevant. This has to be understood locally, and the Spanish study which appears to be of high quality, is showing that clear as day.
Big in some regions, almost absent in others. Why?
It hits Men twice as hard as women. Why?
It is mild in almost every case for 5-7 days, then takes off like a wildfire. Why?
Some people had such mild symptoms, they didn’t even know they had it. Why?
It’s critical because we can’t just let the Blue state governors destroy the economy. We need to take this CCP Virus seriously, but we’ve got to get people back to work.
I’ve been tracking my state, county and US on cases, death and growth rates for the last month. There are differences as one would expect probably because of demographics and the degree of urbanization.
Definitely the US and State stats are worse than my county. Rate of growth has been decreasing but there’s still 1-3% case growth per day. About 0.4% of US population have cases reported etc
It gets interesting when Freepers start to
throw numbers and statistics around.
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