Anthony Fauci says parts of U.S. could open next month

KRCR (ABC) ^ | April 12th 2020 | Associated Press

[null and void]

tl;dr?

It's only 105 panels!

Stop everything...
I think I hear the President
The pied piper of the TV screen
Is gonna make it simple
And he's got it all mapped out
And illustrated with cartoons

[Vermont Lt]

I wrote a vanity that was ridiculed by the flubros back in February. In general the points were:

1. 99% of us were not going to die from this. Most wouldn’t even know.

2. Stay away from the hospitals. Stay away from crowds.

3. This was really going to gum up the works due to the destruction of the supply line. I did suggest it could gum up the hospital systems.

No outrageous suggestions of deaths out of control. I think I’ve said that every person doing spreadsheets and models on this were using shitty information. I started doing just that an noticed that the death rates in China were identical for something like 10 days running. That is simply not believable.

Anyway, counting deaths missed my point of “gumming up the works.” The works are gummed up. I never expected them to be THIS gummed up. But as “exports orders” from china are down 32% and actual exports are down almost as much (filling back orders.)

Counting is missing the big picture. We might “re-open” but until the supply chain starts working, we won’t be making anything.

[Vermont Lt]

tl/dr:

Don’t trust models that are constructed with silly information and unreliable numbers.

Don’t measure national models against other national models or city models.

[null and void]

I started doing just that an noticed that the death rates in China were identical for something like 10 days running. That is simply not believable.

2.1% isn't believable?

FWIW, that number scared me. It's some 20X the death rate from the normal seasonal flu.

Given the source, I knew they were greatly understating the death rate to save face.

[Vermont Lt]

I hear all of the “its from China, its a lie.”

We ALL knew that at the time. But what the flu bros didn’t realize is that the lies tell you a lot.

Before they (the CCP) got a handle on twitter there was a ton of interesting information coming out. Even sifting through the crap—you knew it was a lot worse than they were saying.

What we haven’t seen are the pollution photos/reports (although I was looking at aqi reports this morning) or videos from the streets that are not produced by the CCP.

I know it was only weeks ago, but it felt like years.

[Lazamataz]

Thanks. Summaries are helpful. :)

[null and void]

I know it was only weeks ago, but it felt like years.

For many, it was the rest of their lives.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

People are such sissies. I’m sitting here loving the quarantine. Can wake up when I want. Don’t need to go anywhere. I can do all my work at home. It’s awesome.

[gleeaikin]

I am not saying that these young people walking around in groups without masks when we have been explicitly advised we should were masks while in public should give up their jobs. I’m saying they should stop being idiots and endangering themselves and the rest of us with their stupid, irresponsible behavior. By all means, go back to work, but wear a mask on the trip and if you can’t distance enough at work, wear a mask and gloves there as well. It is rampant stupidity like that which is fueling the fear of reopening business as usual. It will be a long time before we can conduct business as usual. We need to be responsible and conduct business safely.

[P-Marlowe]

Less than two weeks ago the “experts” (all of them) were telling us that not only did we not need the masks, but that using them could make things worse. These same idiots are now telling us we can’t leave home without them.

Frankly that are useless. Most people can’t get their hands on genuine surgical masks, which filter out the virus and have protective layers that keep the virus on the outside from mixing with the saliva and water vapor on the inside. Most people are making their own masks which are literally petri dishes for growing bacteria and viruses.

So telling people they have to make masks, which two weeks ago they told us not to do, is just another example of experts by and large being idiots and hypocrites.

If you don’t feel comfortable leaving your home, then by all means stay inside. I’m itching to get back to bike riding on the beach and going to church. Right now the Nazis will fine me $1000 if I do either.

[gleeaikin]

I feel uncomfortable being hungry in the house, so I go shopping once a week. Wearing the masks or bandanas is so that if you sneeze, cough, etc. you don’t spread a wide cloud of germs which they now say can go a lot more than 6 feet.

[Syncro]

Thanks for bringing a degree of clarity to the situation...

[P-Marlowe]

What are the odds that you are carrying the virus?

What are the odds that those youngsters who aren’t wearing masks will infect you if you stay 6 feet away from them?

My County has an App that you can call the police if you see someone not heeding the orders from the health department. Would you use that on your neighbors?

This whole lockdown is insane. The fact is that you are eventuallly going to get exposed. You’re body is going to have to deal with exposure sooner or later. Maybe you won’t have any symptoms at all. Maybe you will.

You’ve been exposed to SARS and H1N1. We all were. We went to ball games. We shook hands. We got sneezed on. Did you get sick?

[cherry]

will someone shut this little pipsqueak up?...every other hour he insinuates something different.

[Syncro]

Given the source, I knew they were greatly understating the death rate to save face

***************************

And to grossly under state the danger to the rest of the world.

I saw an expert on TV, with sources within Wuhan, who said about 45,000 died in the first few days in Wuhan alone.

Chinese are and have been lying from the beginning.

Like in the middle of Jan they said it wasn’t transmitted from person to person, and WHO backed them up.

Taiwan told China at the end of Dec that it WAS going from person to person.

CHINA = BIOLOGICAL WARFARE!

[gleeaikin]

For some reason when I tried to print this excellent explanation of the Modeling process, pieces kept being omitted on my copies. So, I ended up hand printing the missing parts.

[null and void]

It was a total pain in the fundament to post the first time, too!

Zack Weinersmith or 538 broke it up into several blocks, 105 panels in all!

<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_1_final_panelfix.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_2_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_3_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_4_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_5_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_6_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_7_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_8_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_9_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_10_internet.png?w=575">
<img src="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/maggiecovid_final_11_internet.png?w=575">