Posted on 02/28/2020 9:20:28 PM PST by NoLibZone
Oops.
Flu is endemic, Wuhan virus is not. Yet. let’s keep it that way.
Flu is a bad comparison. This is more like the cold virus. On super steroids. Spider Monkeys and Gorillas are both primates. Which would you rather be locked in a room with?
Doing nothing about this is stupid. What ever comes of this is in addition to the flu because, as stated, this is not the flu. It has a CFR of about 2% when you have all the resources of a province or state or country available to focus on it. If the medical system in any area is overwhelmed the CFR rockets to 15%. So if it becomes endemic, like the flu, and our medical system has adapted sufficiently, we will have a lot more deaths than from flu. Downplaying other people’s concerns is a disservice.
“It won’t take much at all to completely overwhelm the system.”
Exactly right.
Miri
25% versus 18%.
In the US it varies wildly by region, also. I imagine, but can’t confirm, that that is true of China also.
“This virus kills between 2 to 3 percent of those who get it in China. I suspect it may be lower in first world countries. Not enough data yet.”
When you exclude Hubei Province (Wuhan) the global CFR is around 1.8%. That’s official deaths divided by (official deaths + official recoveries).
Watch S. Korea. First World medicine, widespread testing. 16 deaths, 27 recovered, 3150 known cases. CFR of 16/(16+27)*100%=37%. That looks pretty bad, BUT it is still early. Many of the 3103 unresolved cases will recover and that 37% will drop to some much lower number. In the US we just had our first official death. There are 7 recovered. That’s a 12.5% CFR. Same caveats as for S. Korea, with the exception that we are just starting our widespread testing so our actual case count is unknown.
Some people here at FR may be panicking, true, but I don’t think that any of them are deliberately creating panic.
I think we have more people deliberately creating complacency in spite of obvious dangers. They are more dangerous, IMO.
Lots and lots of Confirmation Bias, too.
That said, we have our fair share of trolls and abusers.
Some of the local hospitals have been overwhelmed in past years during the flu season with patients being placed in the hallways.
It wouldn't take many more patients to overwhelm all the current hospitals as they exist now in our country. - Tom
My son had a recent hospital stay. The only bed left was the last one in the ICU. The hospital was outsourcing patients to a hospital across the state (small state, but, still...)
Of course, this IS a liberal area full of old rich white liberals. Hospital is probably always full.
Those are flu stats for the US, I believe, but the point is valid.
I'll bet some of those rich white liberals are from here in Massachusetts.
They got this State screwed up, and they migrate north to NH and ME. -Tom
Yes, they are.
Liberals foul the nest and then move on, leaving disaster behind them. NH has been ruined by them fleeing the disaster they created in MA. AZ is going that way. FL too.
Just giving some perspective...
How is Flu endemic? You saying it’s a local thing and not a pandemic virus?
I suppose the coronavirus may end up being more epidemic than the Flu, but even that is really up in the air for now
ADJECTIVE
(of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area. "complacency is endemic in industry today"
The flu is endemic in the whole world. CV is not, yet.
The qualifications: “regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.”
Seem to say that it means a more limited set of instances - vs. pandemic which is what your apparent meaning of “endemic in the whole world” would denote.
I originally responded to was saying Flu is “endemic”, seeming to mean it wasn’t a global phenomenon...
Perhaps just a miscommunication - lot of that going on with the Great Dem Hope (my new name for the coronavirus)...
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