Posted on 09/10/2017 2:02:02 PM PDT by NautiNurse
This is an information Thread.Please start a new thread.
You Look horrible in a dress.
Record flooding in Jacksonville, 7 million without power in Florida. Yeah, a real nothingburger.
Any fool can make an accurate forecast after the storm has passed. That is exactly the logical fallacy you are engaged in here.
“Why are you here?So many people are hurting.Start a new thread or something.”
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There are always people who want to play,”My storm was far worse than your storm”.
Annoying.
.
7 Mil,bad.
I absolutely do get it, I’m just not vested in maintaining that this was an historic, disastrous storm when it was Category 2 level damage when it was not. Sympathies for those who suffered damage, loss and flooding. That happens with even tropical storms in low-lying coastal areas.
I suppose that makes me a “down-caster” but what of the “up-casters?” Why do some people appear to actually WANT death and destruction? Why can’t they be thankful to have dodged a bullet, rather than getting angry over honest assessments that the forecasts were overblown? Can you answer that?
I certainly hope so, but what’s your excuse, lol?
Tell us, do you think Harvey’s worst-case forecast was hyping the storm?
Trying to predict the path of a hurricane is like trying to predict the path of a knuckleball pitch. I’ll never forget the one in the early eighties that came barrela$$ing up the Atlantic making a beeline for Boston. Everyone knew the drill,...taped windows, bought water and batteries and plywood, etc, etc. Then waited for landfall. A half hour goes by. No Hurricane. An hour goes by. No hurricane! Where did the hurricane go? As soon as it encountered land south of Boston it hit a ramp of air that sent it, not left, not right, but UP....up into the sky and it sailed over our heads and disintegrated into neverland.
PS they might want attention.
I suppose that makes me a “down-caster” but what of the “up-casters?”
No, it makes you a post-caster. In other words, a forecast of no skill, knowledge or relevance.
Your right I’m ugly as sin.I could create a storm just with my looks.:)
Got good news this afternoon about my brother in Jacksonville. The St Johns River rose enough to get into the pool and into the garage, but a few inches below entering the house.
The forecast was for a moderate hurricane that was going to be a big rain producer, that basically stalled out over southeast Texas. That was reasonably accurate. There was no mandatory evacuation to speak of in Houston, the mayor opposed it. So, they had the opposite problem that Florida has had, they recalled the botched Rita evacuation and refused to sit in a two hundred mile long parking lot for 20 hours again. Don’t be surprised if the same reaction occurs the next time in Florida.
I’m not “post-casting” and I’ve not been “down-casting” I’ve been saying all along that I thought it would graze Cuba and be slowed, and that I though a track up the west coast of FL was improbable. What is inaccurate about that?
Since we’re jumping on our high horses here, what skill do you possess other than dogged determination to cut and paste the forecast of others? That’s not to say that your efforts aren’t valuable, but in fact you are an aggregator, not possessed of any particular training, knowledge or relevance outside of that, unless you’re now claiming to be a meteorologist.
I suppose you are claiming to be a meteorologist, because if you aren’t your reply is rather arrogant with no basis.
:)
Moderate? Harvey was forecast to be a major at landfall. But my point stands. The worst case of wind and flooding happened with Harvey. Sometimes that happens. Sometimes it doesn't. But you have to prepare along the lines of the worst-case forecast.
Once again, you are engaging in the mental masturbation of forecasting after the storm is done, and you are rewriting the history of the storm in the process. Irma was a Cat 4 on the edge of Cat 5 just south of Florida when the evacuation calls were made. Cat 3 came later when Irma went closer to Cuba than forecast. No one could have been certain that would happen.
I bet you don’t pet dogs.
That was a beautiful song, and very haunting.
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