Posted on 08/11/2017 9:11:25 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
It’s a half-full/half-empty thing. Before the election I predicted Trump would win with “between 300 and 320 electoral votes”-—but that it would be close, in that 30 or more of those electoral votes would be very small margins (NH, VA, WI, MI, PA, ME).
Trump lost 7 states by 560,000 votes, or just a little more than Zero won the whole election. These would account for about 40 more electoral votes. The “flip factor” for Trump to win in 2020 is therefore 231,000 in those states.
Well, given the voter registration changes I’ve followed since November, Trump already should pick up NH and probably ME; would be VERY close in NM and NV. I “believe” he’ll win MN, but because they don’t do party voter registration, I don’t have data to back that up.
I guess what I’m saying is that Trump was closer to a massive blowout than Obama was to staying in office.
PA, MI, NC,FL and WI all had a 3% black voter decline. Two ways to look at that. Traditional thinking is “well, they’ll be back next time with a different candidate.” I look at it differently. These are permanent defections. They’re done with the D party. But they didn’t quite yet make the jump to Trump. In 2020, that 3% will-—but another 5-7% will take the first step and not turn out again.
Game over.
Hopefully just in time for him to be indicted in illegal surveillance, complicity in Seth Rich’s murder, treason for the Iran deal, etc, etc.
EVERYthing Ubama does is delicate.
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