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What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes
Fivethirtyeight ^ | 11-9-2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/09/2016 6:39:58 PM PST by MUDDOG

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To: MUDDOG
Nate shows his ass along with being wrong - two particular items jumped off the page:

But the Republican Party is also forever changed. The GOP has learned that there’s a bigger market for populism, and a far smaller one for movement conservatism, than many of us imagined. The Party of Reagan has been supplanted by the Party of Trump.

America hasn’t put its demons — including racism, anti-Semitism and misogyny — behind it. White people still make up the vast majority of the electorate, particularly when considering their share of the Electoral College, and their votes usually determine the winner.

What a load of crapola - the party stopped being the "Pary of Reagan" long ago and if anyhting, Trump moves it back in that direction.

The White racism bit speaks on its own....

61 posted on 11/10/2016 4:31:59 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: MUDDOG
What gets me is, right after he was so wrong on the 2014 elections, he wrote an essay that polling methodology was in serious trouble, and that he was going to seriously research how to fix it.

I think Nate knew exactly what was wrong. He hinted at it last weekend: he thought the polls were wrong, but he still thought Hillary would win.

He couldn't admit otherwise, because....

Obviously didn’t work.

No, his paymasters said: keep doing what you are doing.

We have an election to win, and you we need you to keep gaslighting the unsuspecting public.

62 posted on 11/10/2016 5:27:27 AM PST by justlurking (#TurnOffCNN)
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To: heterosupremacist

A garbage truck. Right at home.


63 posted on 11/10/2016 5:42:14 AM PST by PLMerite (Lord, let me die fighting lions. Amen.)
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To: MUDDOG

Don’t be naive. They have the called these states a long time ago. Now days ago.

They are unable to cope with Trumps high electoral vote count.

They are keeping it at the lower number to undermine his bold win.


64 posted on 11/10/2016 6:50:21 AM PST by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies (...lock..her...up...and..him..too....all of them.)
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To: MUDDOG

538 total electoral votes and TRUMP gets 308 means:
Trump gets 56.9%
Clinton gets 43.1%

I’d call that a landslide!


65 posted on 11/10/2016 7:09:35 AM PST by New Jersey Realist (America is the land of the free BECAUSE of the brave)
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To: justlurking

That’s a good point. The polls are used as a propaganda tool.


66 posted on 11/10/2016 7:45:35 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: New Jersey Realist

Works for me!


67 posted on 11/10/2016 7:46:03 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: trebb
What a load of crapola - the party stopped being the "Pary of Reagan" long ago

As you point out, Nate is repeating stereotypes that liberals have of conservatives.

It throws doubt on his other assessments.

68 posted on 11/10/2016 7:48:17 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: dr_lew

That is striking!


69 posted on 11/10/2016 7:49:41 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: MUDDOG
It throws doubt on his other assessments.

Yep - Nate has ruined his rep forever.

70 posted on 11/10/2016 10:40:47 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: MUDDOG

With every hour that goes by that I have to contemplate what just happened it feels more and more like the Divine Providence that the founders spoke of. We’ve narrowly escaped certain extinction as a free country and have been given one more precious chance. I think if all the individual prayers going up on election night could have been streaks of light, they would have lit this country like a neon sign saying “Please don’t forsake us”.


71 posted on 11/10/2016 11:52:31 AM PST by mom of young patriots
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To: mom of young patriots

I know what you mean. It does seem like a miracle. In fact, I was ready to go Galt at 7:00 pm Tuesday evening when it looked Hillary was going to win.


72 posted on 11/10/2016 11:56:25 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: MUDDOG

I agree about the desperation when it looked like it was going Hillary’s way. It wasn’t until I started seeing PA trend in our direction that I felt a spark of hope that we might have a slender chance to overcome the voter fraud on their side. Then when PA turned pink, I became cautiously optimistic.

As nail-biting as it was for us, imagine Israel.


73 posted on 11/10/2016 5:22:39 PM PST by mom of young patriots
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