Posted on 03/09/2016 3:01:49 PM PST by NYRepublican72
clear outlier.
many many other polls taken during this time that are in line with each other. This one is the odd man out. Plus it doesn’t even add up.
The polls have been unchanged for days now. I think there are many undecided, who when they get to the voting booth, might vote for their favorite son, who has been a pretty good governor and a nice guy.
Times are good, in a surreal way. No major terrorism, no major world wide man made calamities etc.
Trump gets votes when things are bad in the world.
We have evolved into a soft, bass boat, weekend mentality where by we don’t care about anything until it affects us.
For example, why would the republicans continue to bail out Obamacare? Why not let it hit the people hard? No they put in a budget that covers the bad effects, so people really aren’t affected.
Crazy.
The following data is taken directly from the poll itself.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/03/09/fox-news-poll-kasich-ahead-in-ohio/
It shows that the poll seriously underrepresents Ohioans who are 45 and younger, the blue collar income groups, and white Catholics (Catholicism is huge in Ohio and typically blue-collar.)
It is meticulous about representing the OLDER and the REPUBLICAN.
The groups under-represented are Trump groups; the groups meticulously represented are establishment groups.
That means that his poll probably is a political poll, and that the RCP average prior to this poll is most likely the real average. JMHO, but Trump has about a 3 point lead in Ohio. They will run a shock and awe, ‘trump is hitler’ campaign here between now and the primary next week, and it will bring late deciders to their side. If Trump doesn’t do likewise, then he is surrendering in Ohio.
Fox News Poll — Margin of Error for Subgroups
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The telephone poll was conducted with live interviewers March 5-8, 2016 among 806 Ohio likely Republican primary voters on landlines (410) and cellphones (396). Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results among the attached subgroups have larger sampling errors:
Ohio Likely Republican Primary Voters +/- 3.5%
Men: +/- 4.5% Women: +/- 5%
-— College Degree: +/- 4.5%
No College Degree: +/- 5%
-— Under Age 45: +/- 8.5%
Age 45+: +/- 3.5%
-— Income Under $50k: +/- 6.5%
Income $50k+: +/- 4.5%
-— White Evangelical: +/- 5%
-— White Catholics: +/- 7%
-— Very Conservative: +/- 5.5%
-— Republican: +/- 4%
“This is a Fox poll, just like the WSJ poll was way off in South Carolina, WSJ is run by Murdoch, so you know its a lyin inaccurate biased BS, Crap poll.”
Last week, I quit counting the consecutive days that the Opinion section of the Wall Street Journal trashed Trump. I quit at 102. Yesterday, there were 8 opinion pieces, and 6 of them Trashed Trump. Rupert is getting desperate : )
LOL
He's the sitting governor, and last time I saw, he had a very good approval rating within the state. Won his last election resoundingly.
Trump is focusing on Florida, and it won't surprise me if he lets Ohio slip away. I've said for some time that I believe a Trump/Kasich ticket is very possible.
Trump's general election electoral strategy clearly goes through the Midwest. A Kasich pick has its upside.
The other night on CNN, the Trump pundit put forth this idea of Kasich as VP. It was subtle, but he put it out there.
Gosh I hope Kasich is NOT the VP!!! I honestly don’t believe Trump will stay more than 4 and Kasich is just unbearable with his touchy feely crap!!! I want a STRONG leader this guy is way to mushy for me personally !!
1. Ohio. Kasich lost only 4 counties in a competitive swing state during his last election as governor.
2. Pennsylvania, where Kasich was born. I believe he still has strong ties.
3. Trump himself has said he wants a politician for VP. "We don't need two of me." For all his faults that we can cite here on FR, Kasich has a very good approval rating in his state.
4. Fence-mending with the establishment.
5. There is very little "backtracking" required of either candidate, since neither have attacked the other to a great degree.
6. Softens the edges of the ticket and appeals to many women.
I don't think Trump is necessarily looking 4 or 8 years down stream. His primary objective is to win the Presidency THIS year.
Trump is going to be a breath of fresh air. As long as we continue to stand behind him, he will fight around the clock to win, and then work his heart out to turn this dying country around.
~~Go Trump Go~~ ~~Go Trump Go~~
YES!
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