Fight Night: Can Carson Defend? Can Trump Come Back? Why Is Kasich Here?

Breitbart.com ^ | October 28, 2015 | Ben Shapiro

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

I think Santorum was polling about that at this time four years ago.

[Yashcheritsiy]

It’ll be interesting to see if Baby-Killin’ Ben takes any flak tonight.

[Yashcheritsiy]

I don’t like your post, therefore it can’t be true.

Actually, though, there are some reasons to at least be suspicious of the CBS/NYT poll.

1) It’s an outlier. Every other national poll that I’m aware of has Trump in the 30s and almost doubling Carson. Even at a 95% confidence level, this means that there’s a 1-in-20 chance that a poll could simply be out in the stratosphere somewhere, which that one may well have been.

2) The calculations being used in the poll were...odd. They said they had n=575 for the Republican portion of the poll, yet listed the MoE as 6% (in some places 7%), when in reality, the MoE would be around 4.1% for that sample size. At the very least, it lowers my confidence that the poll was “done right” in a technical sense, which could well reflect on the data. Garbage in, garbage out, and all that.

[Tucker39]

Where can I find a link to watch the debate live on the internet?

[Jane Long]

Romper.

[bgill]

Why is anyone on stage who is still polling in the single digits?

[AdaGray]

Trump ‘come back.’ Let’s get real. He never left.

[Jack Black]

I think Santorum was polling about that at this time four years ago.

I don't think it's equivalent.

2012 Results: Yes, Santorum did eventually win 20% of the popular vote, won the most delegates in 6 states, and finished behind Mitt with 234 delegates to Mitt's 1500. So a credible, if distant, second place run.

2012 Polling, End of Oct: Yes, you have good memory. For the rest of us, here is some historic polling data

.

Yes, it's true Santorum was at 3%. But, unlike what a lot of people seem to remember, the more telling point is that Romney had been the clear leader since May, always in first place. True 2nd place Herman Cain was within a few points in Oct, but it was his high point.

So, Here's a cool chart:

This chart would seem to indicate that either Trump or Carson will be the nominee.

In 2012 Santorum did as well as he did by virtue of hanging on as the "Anyone but Romeny" candidate, along with Dr. Ron Paul. At least in Washington where I live there were only three or four candidates left by the time we voted. But he wasn't really in the running at that point.

Every race is different, but I really just don't see someone like John Kasich, who seems like a decent man, somehow blowing past 9 other people to win the nomination. Could someone like him hang on to take second of third, yeah, maybe. But it's sort of pointless.

Trump has been in the top position in national polss for 130 days now, and the voting starts in about 90. Even if he somehow explodes, ala Cain in 2012, the beneficiary would probably Carson, and perhaps the next two or three like Rubio and Cruz.

That's my take.

I think the Evil Obama Complicit Media (EOCM) love having 12 GOP Candidates. It raises the idea that the GOP is full of weird cranks (you did get that idea about the Dems watching Chafee, who was a full embarrassment, and to a lesser extent Webb.

I think boiling it down soon, to say the top six or so (the ones over 5%) helps all of them look more Presidential. I hope the EOMC stops encouraging the back of the pack to keep pretending they are going somewhere.