Election 2015: Row over second independence referendum warning

In the short term yes, but that power ultimately rests on the support of the Scottish people, a large proportion of which have been converted to virulent nationalism, rabid anti-English racism, and a sad devotion to nanny-state progressiveness. Joinig with the Conservatives will be perceived as a betrayal of Scotland, Scottishness and Socialism. A hard charge to refute (principally because it would be true).

I dont see why Sturgeon would risk that. If they join with labour to form a government, they can pull the strings in the background. Ditto with a weak minority government of any persuasion. In both cases they can win ever more concessions for support in enacting any legislation they like. If they let the Conservatives form a government, possibly in league with other small parties, then five years of a Conservative England and an SNP Scotland is going to broaden and deepen the gap between the two, weakening the Union ever more, which of course is their ultimate objective. If affairs pick up in Scotland while they are the majority party, then they will take all the credit, strengthening them even more. If things go bad, they'll just blame the government in Westminster.

I just can't see any scenario where they do not win, unless they make some catastrophic blunder. Joining with the Tories would count.

Underline two still in play for Labour; the Tories and LD also have a few, but the LD was also hit pretty hard:

won in 2010 name region SNP Labour

Liberal Democrats Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Scotland 26 8

Labour Dunfermline and West Fife Scotland 30 38

Liberal Democrats Edinburgh West Scotland 33 23

Labour Dumfries and Galloway Scotland 33 30

Liberal Democrats Orkney and Shetland Scotland 34 10

Labour Edinburgh South Scotland 35 32

Conservatives Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Scotland 36 19

Liberal Democrats East Dunbartonshire Scotland 37 17

Labour Aberdeen South Scotland 37 27

Liberal Democrats West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Scotland 38 10

Labour Edinburgh South West Scotland 38 28

Labour East Renfrewshire Scotland 38 34

Labour East Lothian Scotland 39 34

Labour Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland 39 44

Labour Glasgow North East Scotland 39 47

Liberal Democrats North East Fife Scotland 41 11

Liberal Democrats Gordon Scotland 41 13

Labour Edinburgh North and Leith Scotland 41 29

Labour Paisley and Renfrewshire North Scotland 41 40

Labour Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Scotland 42 32

Labour Central Ayrshire Scotland 42 35

Labour Stirling Scotland 44 30

Labour Glasgow North West Scotland 44 38

Liberal Democrats Ross, Skye and Lochaber Scotland 44 8

Liberal Democrats Argyll and Bute Scotland 45 16

Labour Glasgow North Scotland 45 32

Labour Glasgow Central Scotland 45 35

Labour Glenrothes Scotland 45 43

Labour Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland 46 43

Liberal Democrats Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Scotland 47 13

Liberal Democrats Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Scotland 47 17

Labour Linlithgow and East Falkirk Scotland 47 33

Labour Glasgow South Scotland 47 35

Labour Inverclyde Scotland 47 35

Labour East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Scotland 47 36

Labour Airdrie and Shotts Scotland 47 39

Labour Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland 47 39

Labour Aberdeen North Scotland 49 29

Labour Glasgow South West Scotland 49 37

Labour Paisley and Renfrewshire South Scotland 49 39

Labour Motherwell and Wishaw Scotland 49 40

Labour Ochil and South Perthshire Scotland 50 27

Labour Edinburgh East Scotland 50 29

Labour West Dunbartonshire Scotland 50 38

Labour Glasgow East Scotland 50 38

Labour Midlothian Scotland 51 29

Labour Lanark and Hamilton East Scotland 51 31

Labour Livingston Scotland 51 32

Labour Kilmarnock and Loudoun Scotland 53 33

Labour Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Scotland 54 35

SNP Angus Scotland 55 12

SNP Perth and North Perthshire Scotland 55 12

SNP Moray Scotland 57 13

Labour North Ayrshire and Arran Scotland 57 28

Labour Dundee West Scotland 59 26

SNP Banff and Buchan Scotland 60 10

Labour Falkirk Scotland 60 25

SNP Dundee East Scotland 63 19

SNP Na h-Eileanan an Iar Scotland 87 8

won in 2010	name	region	SNP	Labour
Liberal Democrats	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Scotland	26	8
Labour	Dunfermline and West Fife	Scotland	30	38
Liberal Democrats	Edinburgh West	Scotland	33	23
Labour	Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland	33	30
Liberal Democrats	Orkney and Shetland	Scotland	34	10
Labour	Edinburgh South	Scotland	35	32
Conservatives	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Scotland	36	19
Liberal Democrats	East Dunbartonshire	Scotland	37	17
Labour	Aberdeen South	Scotland	37	27
Liberal Democrats	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Scotland	38	10
Labour	Edinburgh South West	Scotland	38	28
Labour	East Renfrewshire	Scotland	38	34
Labour	East Lothian	Scotland	39	34
Labour	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Scotland	39	44
Labour	Glasgow North East	Scotland	39	47
Liberal Democrats	North East Fife	Scotland	41	11
Liberal Democrats	Gordon	Scotland	41	13
Labour	Edinburgh North and Leith	Scotland	41	29
Labour	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Scotland	41	40
Labour	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Scotland	42	32
Labour	Central Ayrshire	Scotland	42	35
Labour	Stirling	Scotland	44	30
Labour	Glasgow North West	Scotland	44	38
Liberal Democrats	Ross, Skye and Lochaber	Scotland	44	8
Liberal Democrats	Argyll and Bute	Scotland	45	16
Labour	Glasgow North	Scotland	45	32
Labour	Glasgow Central	Scotland	45	35
Labour	Glenrothes	Scotland	45	43
Labour	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Scotland	46	43
Liberal Democrats	Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	Scotland	47	13
Liberal Democrats	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Scotland	47	17
Labour	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Scotland	47	33
Labour	Glasgow South	Scotland	47	35
Labour	Inverclyde	Scotland	47	35
Labour	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Scotland	47	36
Labour	Airdrie and Shotts	Scotland	47	39
Labour	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Scotland	47	39
Labour	Aberdeen North	Scotland	49	29
Labour	Glasgow South West	Scotland	49	37
Labour	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Scotland	49	39
Labour	Motherwell and Wishaw	Scotland	49	40
Labour	Ochil and South Perthshire	Scotland	50	27
Labour	Edinburgh East	Scotland	50	29
Labour	West Dunbartonshire	Scotland	50	38
Labour	Glasgow East	Scotland	50	38
Labour	Midlothian	Scotland	51	29
Labour	Lanark and Hamilton East	Scotland	51	31
Labour	Livingston	Scotland	51	32
Labour	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Scotland	53	33
Labour	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Scotland	54	35
SNP	Angus	Scotland	55	12
SNP	Perth and North Perthshire	Scotland	55	12
SNP	Moray	Scotland	57	13
Labour	North Ayrshire and Arran	Scotland	57	28
Labour	Dundee West	Scotland	59	26
SNP	Banff and Buchan	Scotland	60	10
Labour	Falkirk	Scotland	60	25
SNP	Dundee East	Scotland	63	19
SNP	Na h-Eileanan an Iar	Scotland	87	8

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