I wouldn't be surprised if NM, IL, WA, OR, and HI are now in play.
Posted on 11/04/2012 5:32:26 PM PST by Arthurio
set twitter afire in that everyone is talking about the dead heat or the joke of the rats +11??
I’ve never heard an explanation for the absurd over sampling of democrats in these polls. Can these firms possibly truly expect this?
These polls are like junkies who need bigger and bigger doses to get the same high.
so annoying! just watched this panel of political pundits on CBS... all but one calling it for Obama... saying it’s just too difficult for Romney to get enough electoral votes... said Ohio is Obama’s... and one idiot even said the Romney camp has money to burn so that’s why they are in Pennsylvania... just to make Obama spend money there... oh brother...
The "gods of the copy-book headings" WILL take care of these bastards in the future.
...they WILL start reporting news as news and start identifying when they are offering opinions AND when offering up a "poll", that poll is honest and fair.
...they don't seem to have figured out that WE have them figured out and that unless they start acting like a "news" organization, they are toast.
I wouldn't be surprised if NM, IL, WA, OR, and HI are now in play.
Bingo.
How do they go about guesstimating the proportions of party voter turn out? And how can it possibly be the same across all states?
Where is it stated D + 11 sample?
I’m struck that a few hours before the election all that’s being discussed is polls and not policy. I’m guilty too, but it’s not good for our republic.
+11 rofl. That would explain Obama’s campaign events going from 80k to 4k.
In the backroom: "Let's see, does plus 8 D make it? No? How about plus 10?..."
We look forward to a Romney Ryan Landslide. It will be plus 10 R!
They’re in the tank for Obama and they’ve come to believe their own biased polls and propaganda.
Did you really expect CBS to be impartial? That is why I never watch the MSM.
GLA,
It is the D+11 that has Twitter abuzz. It sound so unbelievable.
It’s in the appendix at back. 41D / 30R / 29I.
We could just waste JimRob's bandwidth talking about unicorn sightings.
I skimmed all 57 pages and couldn’t find it...
What an insane poll...tied and D+ double digits. Wow if true.
That said, here is a link to an interesting article from 2004 arguing why the polls were wrong and Kerry would win from some Dem.
It uses many of the same arguments we use today, so let’s not ASSUME we are winning and polls are wrong, even if oversampled. It could be that Dem turnout will be higher than we think.
I think in this case, oversampling etc. WILL mean we are going to win. But, don’t get too overconfident. Even good-sounding statistics can be wrong.
http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php
Based on this poll though, I would not be surprised if we do pull off a big upset.
Right now I predict a R win of 2 points, but I hope it’s five or even more.
They work backwards to figure out the sample they need to keep Obama in the lead.
Its CBS..what do you want them to say “Its over, Obama is toast!” of course they are going to pump Obama up but behind the scenes they know Obama is finished
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