Posted on 10/03/2012 6:46:43 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
“Only 9% of people contacted participate in the poll. That’s overwhelming self-selection.”
I use practically every caller-Id and caller-blocker known to mankind, including myself. For example, I never answer 202 or 703 area codes, nothing that looks like a poll, nothing that looks like a fake Caller-ID.
And I was just talking this morning to a friend who owns some significant-sized small global businesses, and he brought up the same notion, namely, that he does the same thing that I do, and knows many others who do the same, that is, he ducks the blizzard of political calls and thinks the polls are worthless due to this self-selection.
He also made another interesting point, namely, that he has several liberal acquaintances who avowedly fall all over themselves to answer these polls to give their pro-Obama views.
So on the one hand we have conservatives ducking the polls, and yet on the other hand we have rabid liberals enthusiastically answering the polls. I wonder what the REAL numbers will look like on November 7? My guess is nowhere near what the ObamaMedia polls are claiming.
“Even if Romney were to hit a grand slam home run the media would report it a draw to a slight win for Romney it’s just how it is. Have to stop worrying about it and just GOTV.”
True dat.
The polls are intriguing and many are obsessed with following them, but I heard that pollsters are being denied responses by 90% of those they call. Only ten per cent even want to participate in the polls.
“Even if Romney were to hit a grand slam home run the media would report it a draw to a slight win for Romney it’s just how it is. Have to stop worrying about it and just GOTV.”
True dat.
The polls are intriguing and many are obsessed with following them, but I heard that pollsters are being denied responses by 90% of those they call. Only ten per cent even want to participate in the polls.
Or they won't vote. A lot of people who are disappointed with Obama are decidedly unenthusiastic about Romney and his abilities to fix the problems. Just because someone doesn't like Obama doesn't mean that they will like Romney.
Getting his camel re-shoed somewhere.
Agree with a lot of what you said. There should be an effort to take back the schools and the media, just as liberals launched an all out effort and succeeded. Liberals were a distinct minority when they did it.
Wonder what happened? We had the institutions and the goodwill of the country in the 80’s.
But we just relented. I guess conservatism is a war...a war against tyranny. People get tired of war.
What kind of milk is that? WOW. It's $3.29 at Costco and even $3.99 at the supermarket.
In the primaries, my wife said she liked Romney cause he was ruthless and sneaky. Freepers asked "where is the guy who nuked Newt?" We'll I think you're seeing him. The first race tape, then Telemundo's "Fast/Furious" exposé, now this race tape---if I didn't know better I'd say that the Romney campaign was behind this. :)
Wow! Well, it meant something to me. Really lifted my spirits. Thanks for posting this. You may want to mention Virginia somewhere in there, though, just in case folks don't know who George Allen and Scott Rigell are. Swing state stories are VERY important (to me, anyway). I grill my Dad every week for any new info he may have from Ohio.
That was great to read...I shgould have mentioned in my original post that I’m in VA Beach, VA. We’re doing a big phone and door to door effort this weekend. I’ll be out there all day..a.s long as my knee last anyway!
The huge increase of IRS agents dedicated for Obamacare is a ruse. Just watch.
Kerry beat Bush by 2 points with Independents yet still lost.
I find it more than grad to believe that Romney wins that group and loses the election.
Just doesn’t add up.
My 18 yr old daughter as well as one of her HS classmates have worked for him since this summer, interning, canvassing, working festivals etc, she’s taking the SAT so wont be out there this weekend, which she regrets!
HA! That’s impossible. Everyone knows that every 18 year old in the country is voting for obama! Especially 18 y/o girls! ;-)
Funny isn’t it?! My 21 yo son, 24 yo daughter and all of their friends also voting for Romney, how can it be??
Yep, when Utah defeated vouchers I just about threw in the towel myself. I think the problem is just how sticky government money is. People just cannot imagine a free-market in education. The system is tied to property values, tax rates, and racism/elitism. We don’t want to make a bad situation worse. Plus, people are incredibly sympathetic to teachers.
I suspect that what will happen is a technological solution will come along that is so incredibly effective as to completely disrupt the government school system. It’s happening online in many ways and the understanding of the methodology of getting people educated customized to their personal learning styles is leaping ahead. The biggest obstacle to education reform is government regulation of education and the babysitting aspect.
These pollsters work hard to account for exactly that. They are professionals, though we’ve caught them in either very dumb assumptions or out and out bias. I suspect bias because they’re just not that dumb. This is their business.
That said, let’s not get cocky. We must GOTV and win up and down the ticket. We need to hold Congress for at least a generation.
Correct. Also, this is a national poll and this race will be decided in the swing states where Romney is doing almost all of his advertising and campaigning, and where the voters know more about the positive side of Romney and the negative side of Obama. The swing state polls are the ones to watch, much more than these national polls. It’s normal for a winning challenger to start behind the incumbent and then overtake the incumbent in the final month as the voters become more familiar with the challenger. That’s exactly what Romney is going to do.
“These pollsters work hard to account for exactly that. “
Do you have any idea how it’s possible to account for the fact that a certain group of people dodge polls and a certain other group doesn’t? Even if that were possible, do the “models” build in that assumption? That is, do the models automatically boost the percentage of conservatives who actually answer and diminish the percentage of liberals who actually answer? If that’s the case, then why do the percentages of answers always line up exactly with the percentage of those in each category? Or do they actually tamper with the number of answers in the categories to bring them in line with the presumed bias and then claim that is then number who actually answered the telephone?
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