Rasmussen: Romney 50%, Obama 42%. Obama at -22%. 44% Approval

RasmussenReports ^ | 5/12/12 | Scott Rasmussen

[Fantasywriter]

“The final straw for my boss, who has been a local Rat office holder, was Obama coming out for gay marriage. He's not the only one, and I don't understand how Obama could’ve done something so incredibly stupid now.”

It really looks as if something unsavory about Obama’s past is about to come out. Recall when the Monica scandal was brewing, Bill and Hillary ‘danced’ on the beach w’out music? They were trying to get out in front of bad news.

We've seen a lot more ‘Obama dancing’ lately than we ever saw w Bill and Hill. The whole girlfriends/’love’ letters thing is so odd in its timing. Why now? And why, as you asked, gay marriage now, of all times?

My personal theory is that they are desperate to drop Slow Joe from the ticket, but Biden isn't cooperating. Not only that, but he's signaled he's ready to spill the beans if he's forced out. So O’s team is trying frantically to gauge how disastrous (or not) it would be if Obama simply came out as bisexual. So far, it's not looking good.

I can't prove the above theory, but it sure makes sense to me. Obama’s fading in the polls, and one of the few game-changers in his shrinking arsenal would be to retire Slow Joe and put a more dynamic, inspiring person in the slot. Joe wants the job, though, and absolutely refuses to go quietly [again, my theory—but there are indications it's true]. Evidently Joe saw or heard something that gives him leverage, and he's tacitly signaled he'll use it if need be.

The question for Obama and Axelrod has become, ‘Do we gain more by kicking Biden off and weathering his back-channel revelations, or by continuing the status quo, in which Obama slowly, very slowly sinks a little more each mo?’

It's not going to be an easy decision—but it will be interesting to watch it play out.

[little jeremiah]

I think 0mugabe didn’t even eat dogs. I think Ayers made it up to make him sound exotic and third world, and to rub out noses in it. Indonesia is a Muslim country and Muslims don’t eat dogs; probably it’s done some places in Indonesia, but not commonly (read that on FR some where). In other SE Asian countries like the PI, it is much more common.

[Clintonfatigued]

Thanks!

[Persevero]

“I’m not a Romney fan, but I’m betting he’ll attack Baraq far more vigorously than McLame or Hildabeast ever did.”

I am hoping and counting on him doing just that.

One thing I always said about Romney during the debates was, I liked his focus on Obama as the enemy.

Since his presumed nomination, he’s weathered “dog abuse” and “schoolmate abuse” excellently; he has not lain down and died.

[Persevero]

“The past two days are the first time that Romney has reached 50% against Obama since Rasmussen started polling the general election. IMHO, it’s not because of what Romney’s doing.”

I tend to guess that it’s because it’s become the consensus that Romney is the nominee. So, people being polled are having to decide, which one will I vote for. It’s between two men now (effectively - I know there are third party candidates).

They are breaking for Romney.

[Political Junkie Too]

This is the initial run of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

I'll begin by listing the states that have recent polls, and then list the states that are still within the margin-of- error.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the first round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result. "No Poll" means the state's final 2008 vote is within the default margin of error (4.5%).

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: No Poll (R -9.0) - just within the default margin of error
• Florida: -2.1% (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R -1%)
• Massachusetts: -1% (R -21%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Missouri: -1.4% (R +3%)
• Montana: +1.5% (R +7%)
• Nevada: +1.3% (R -8%)
• New Mexico: -5.8% (R -16%) - drops out of the margin of error
• North Carolina: -3.4% (R +2%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: -4.8% (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: -1.3% (R +1%)
• Wisconsin: +2.7% (R -4%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%

Graphs and maps to come later.

-PJ

[ohioWfan]

That is, after a three year plus adventure into the weirdness of ultra leftwing kultursmog, led by strange, unknown and ominous people with alien ideas and ideologies, Romney looks and sounds positively normal. A reassuringly normal American.

Wow. You have really nailed it here, hb. Good post!

[fhayek]

I think screwing the pooch is worse than eating it...

[Fantasywriter]

That sounds plausible. Also, it's very funny. Michelle's great plan to have Ayers ghostwrite Obama’s ‘memoirs’ blows up like yet another in a long line of exploding cigars. Ayers liked the dogmeat story, and now Barry is stuck w it. What's the alternative? Admit he not only didn't write it—he probably didn't even proof it. Now whenever he mentions Seamus the Irish Setter, a photoshop of Obama eating a Daschund will automatically pop up. Poetic justice.

[Political Junkie Too]

Here I go again.

-PJ

[little jeremiah]

Oh, it was Michelle’s idea, eh? I guess after they went to Bali (WHO paid for that little jaunt, I wonder?) so Zero could write and he couldn’t write a thing?

The dude is brain damaged....

[little jeremiah]

And then you splash cold water on your face, shake it out of your eyes, and realize that Robomeny is very little better than Zero since he stands for most of the same things.

[ohioWfan]

No, actually most people don't do that. Most thinking conservatives see a world of difference between Romney and a hard core America-hating Communist.

And are happy to see the Communist down in the polls.....

[Liz]

Obama/Biden’s suckup to gays helped rocket Romney’s numbers into the stratopshere.

So I guess Michele O’s plans to solidify the gay vote by French-kissing Ellen DeGenerate on broadcast TV have been cancelled.

ROTFL.

[Fantasywriter]

Barry burned up his entire advance from the first publishing co. that wanted his...ahem, ‘memoirs’, on the Bali jaunt. When nothing happened, the publishing co. wrote the non-negligeable advance off as a dead loss [guess it’s unPC to sue an aspiring author of color] and Barry’s agent hit up a different publishing co. With the second advance dwindling and Barry unable to produce a coherent sentence, Michelle gathered all his notes and recordings and dumped them on Ayers. Saved Little Barry’s bacon...but earned them an icky dogmeat story in the process.

[All this comes from a friendly biography—the same one that details Obama’s prejudice against traditional marriage. He just wanted to shack up, but Michelle insisted on a ring. The book is Barack and Michelle, Portrait of an American Marriage, by Christopher Anderson. It also details the couple’s rocky marriage, and how Michelle nearly walked out on Barack for good.]

[little jeremiah]

I’ve read what Romney has said and done. The best that can be said of him is that he is a liberal RINO corporatist Big Government Republican liar.

[stephenjohnbanker]

I guess : )

[little jeremiah]

Ah, some of those details are ringing little bells in the dark recesses of my mind... So the book admitted that Michelle gave the notes to Ayers?

[NE Cons]

Blatant lie! Absolutely silly comment

[little jeremiah]

Even though you only signed up a few days ago, surely you have had time to read a few days’ worth of aritcle proving that I am right.

If you think I am wrong, prove it.