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I’m a longtime Newt supporter. I’ve done the math, examined the delegate rules and concluded that Mitt Romney will get the minimum amount of delegates needed to be the nominee if the race continues at its current trajectory.

The only thing that MIGHT deny Romney enough delegates is a major shake-up, like either Newt or Rick dropping out of the race and endorsing the other one. Because that way, the remaining candidate could possibly deny Romney delegates in states with winner-take-all rules at the district level (Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, California, Texas, Maryland). Newt did that in South Carolina, winning 92% of the delegates with 40% of the vote.

Illinois is a case in point. Romney is currently polling ahead of the pack with 35% to Rick’s 31% and Newt’s 12%. That state has direct delegate election by district, which means delegates are on the ballot the same way Clinton/Bush/Perot were on the ballot. And if the votes spread out as shown in that poll in every district, Romney will win the entire state. Results may vary from district to district, but with the position we’re in numerically on delegates, we need to SWEEP that state and win almost every districts.

See my full analysis here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2858929/posts?page=124#130