The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against The United States Bond Market

TMO ^ | 7-25-2011 | Money Morning

[AntiScumbag]

Yep..your scenario is entirely probable.

The scenario you refer to (Soros is behind these trades) has a probability of being true that approaches zero. Anyone who would propound that idea has no clue about market reality.

Read my other posts on this thread, particularly the one that demolishes the entire premise of this article.

Soros is a socialist a$$hole, but he's not an idiot.

I also think that the whole 2008 crash and market scare was also orchestrated by corrupt corporate toadies, democrat socialist/communist thugs, Soros and Obama’s handlers.

The only part of that which is right is "democrat socialist/communist thugs," which accurately describes the advent of CRA based on a bogus "red-lining" study and its massive acceleration of toxic lending from 1992 to 2005. CRA was cooked up in the late 1970s. It took 25 or so years for government meddling in mortgage markets to take its final toll.

Once again, Soros is an a$$hole, but he had nothing to do with CRA and forcing banks to make substandard mortgages, appraising homes, securitizing mortgages, rating those securities, or setting the monetary policy which enabled the RE bubble and collapse.

Jug-ears is an idiot, but he too had nothing to do with CRA and the mortgage bubble, it all pre-dated him.

Nothing was "engineered" by anyone. The accumulation of horrible Democrat-liberal-socialist policy for decades finally took its toll. Bush II is also partially responsible as he went along with increasing CRA lending "goals." Mitigated by his failed attempts to rein-in Fannie and Freddie, the failure of which was entirely due to Democrats.

You're right that the next election will be very important, but that's no reason to engage in conspiracy theory rubbish.

And "corporate toadies" is just another name for garden-variety rent-seekers. Of which there will always be too many until the size of government is reduced and they have no reason to seek an advantage from government.

[Why So Serious]

Remember this from July 25th ...

Crazy people ... that is an insurance policy for someone who is long futures or cash treasuries. If you were long knowing that the global economy sticks and rates are going to be near zero for a very long time. Buying the puts is to protect that long position. I recommend that traders start accumulating TYU 126 calls [ten Year Note 126 calls]on any sell-off. Once this debt ceiling is solved, and it will be, the focus is going to turn toward our sub-2% growth rate, increasing unemployment claims and cratering European debt crisis and we will realize the real problem. The second half of this year is going to be ghastly for the economy.

I told you all last week that the focus would trun to the sub-2% growth rate and the TYU 126 calls were the buy [well last week they reported a 0.4% 1st quarter and a 1.8% 2nd quarter]. The economists are still calling for 3.82% growth on the year [PSST! we need two quarters of 7% growth to get there!]. QUIT LAUGHING, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! We are currently trading 126-30 and these calls are in the money. Who ever bought the puts is eating them. The economy stinks and it is getting worse. For the $7 Trillion that was spent we went from Obama we have gone from 5.5% unemployed to 9.25% [remember he would keep it under 8%, well while we were reading the bills that he post on line for 72 hours before he signs them, we got thru 8%]. The yield on 10 yera notes is currently at 2.63%. They were at 2.95 when I said they were going back to 2.20%. Right now 30 year yields are below 3.93%.