Posted on 05/05/2011 10:15:53 AM PDT by US Navy Vet
I feel sorry for all of the useful idiots out there who vote Republican thinking they are actually voting against the Democrat’s agenda. Socialists are merely patient communists. The true patriots of the Tea party are too few and far between to make any real difference anymore.
The soapbox and ballot box are no longer viable means to correct the course of this nation.
Of course the intangible in all of this is... "it's the economy, stupid!".
Being a smooth talking professional BS'er can only go so far....if the "reality" means many people are still suffering with higher fuel/food costs, job losses, etc.....then my cat will be able to beat him.
...as the trillions borrowed/spent with little or nothing to show for it in the econcomy will sink "The School of Saul Alinsky" method's actor/Soros puppet-boy faster than Pelosi's face without botox.
It'll come down to the youth vote, if they forget about college loans and no prospects of decent jobs to pay for them...and instead listen to the Kenyan drum beat of MTV/MSNBC glorification of "The One"...and show up again in Nov. '12...he's in.
...if instead they use their head and grasp reality, he's toast.
LLS
ditto!
Agreed and I am 99% certain that Palin is going to run.
Wouldn’t be surprised that Networks banned from reporting election results by State. Instead, they’ll announce only one thing....Obama won.
He reminds me of the John Travolta character in the kid's film “Bolt.” Travolta plays a canine TV star who really believes he has super powers because the director of his show goes to great lengths to convince him that the show is real. Bolt gets separated from the set and discovers, to his great chagrin, that he doesn't really have heat-ray vision or any other super powers.
Obama has wandered away from his set, and he's discovering that all those things people have told him about himself since childhood just aren't so. It's pathetic, or it would be if it weren't so infuriating.
Soap Box, Ballot Box, Ammo Box . . .
An un-apologetic Conservative will win or there will be civil war.
I will be a deeply unhappy camper, but I predict that 2012 will see a Romney/Huckabee ticket or a Romney/DeMint ticket.
I even think they might win. I can’t see myself voting for Romney, but I can’t see the United States making it through “4 More Years” of the Obamanation intact, either.
So... I’ll have to have a serious pep talk with myself if Romney/anyone else comes to pass.
You’re not serious, at this point in time are you???
Forgive me for believing it is not a serious question at this point in time.
Obummer will be disqualified from appearing on the ballot in three states, due to challenges to his natural-born-citizen status. The Department of Justice will feverishly battle the three states in court.
A conservative newcomer will step forward, or else a “draft Allen West” movement will begin.
Okay, Given even the current lackluster GOP Field, I think the race can still be divided into the following categories:
Safe Obama Socialist States (196)
Hawaii (4), California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3)
Safe GOP States (209)
Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Utah (6), Arizona (11), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Georgia (16), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5). Thanks to the Tea Parties, 3 States will easily be claimed back in Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that you will see the Obama campaign pretty much cede back.
Likely Obama Socialist States (26)
Nevada (6) - If we couldn’t win this in 2010, is it safe to assume the Las Vegas/Reid Voter Fraud machine will be up to the task
Pennsylvania (20) - Yes, we had success here in 2010, but the Senate race was still razor close and the Philly voter machine will be out in 2012 just like it was in 2008. It’ll be closer than last time, but the Dems still have a 4-5% lead here.
Likely GOP States (39)
Missouri (10) - We’ve shown time again that we have enough votes to offset KC/STL and the voter fraud machine here, even with a weak candidate.
Florida (29) - The Dems are in deep dog-doo here. If the GOP can’t win here when the convention is also being hosted in Tampa, then throw out everything I’ve said because it won’t matter. Obama campaign will make a play for it, but they will be on serious defense in the upper Midwest and trying to hold on to the Southwest.
GOP Leads 248-222 with Safes/Likely
Toss-Ups (68) (In Order of Importance)
1. Ohio (18) - Obviously important, but not the end all for either side. Given what’s going on in WI/MI, it is possible for the GOP to lose this state and still have a somewhat decent chance of winning. Alternatively, the GOP can also win OH, but without winning one more state, they would lose.
2. Wisconsin (10) - Other than 2008, this has always been more of a 50/50 state. The fact WI is in play will at least force the Democrats to spend money here they would rather spend in FL or OH.
3. Colorado (9) - This state has always been my pick for where “Ground Zero” will occur in 2012. If the GOP Nominee has Tom Tancredo full support and backing (which means they must be strong on immigration), then this state is in play. Otherwise, it will be a tough sell. While I understand illegal immigration is an important issue to many FReepers here, given the Electoral College make-up, it’s possible to run a “softee” if that person is strong on the economy, which is what I think will dominate OH and WI.
4. New Hampshire (4) - Mitt Romney (and possibly Newt) have the best chance of winning here. Not sure about the other main candidates and the primary won’t say much about their strength either (considering NH’s President McCain was slaughtered in the General to a guy who was crushed by “the Clinton tears”.
5. Iowa (6) - Whereas immigration (CO), and the economy (OH/WI) play roles in those states, here it is the social conservatives. That and subsidies. Because all these toss-up states have different factions of the conservative movement that predominate, I find it hard to find one candidate that can win them all. Example, Huckabee could easily challenge here and win, but he would be crushed in CO and probably every other toss-up.
6. New Mexico (5) - As Colorado goes, I think this follows also.
7. Michigan (16) - Okay, after much contemplating, I’ve added Michigan to the list of toss-ups for now, but that doesn’t mean I’m disregarding the Detroit voter machine. It seems like maybe the people there have finally had enough. Hard to tell though. Either way, the Dems having to pour money into this state is a plus.
Given the toss-ups, I see the GOP winning OH and the Dems winning everywhere else except for CO, which looks like it could decide the whole thing. A few other things I noted:
The EV board is shaping up well for an “Economic” type Conservative. I have to continually repeat that I am not a fan of Mitt Romney because he seems to change with what he sees as “majority opinion”. Nevertheless, given his background and the states in play, he could very well win if the “Mormon fator” in the South doesn’t screw him, and my guess is that it wouldn’t. Newt could also play strong given this board. I cannot give an opinion on Herman Cain yet since I don’t have any data for him, so I guess we’ll have to wait until the primaries or more factors enter the race.
The EV board is also clear at who is at a distinct disadvantage. Mike Huckabee cannot win with this board. Neither can Ron Paul. And while I know I’ll offend some with this statement, it does not look good for Sarah Palin at the moment. This is a board she should defer to say, Michele Bachmann, who through her work in the House, has a much stronger working base knowledge with the Economic issues affecting the country, which is going to be the main issue in this election. Pawlenty doesn’t seem to have any excitement behind him.
Of course, there are two individuals I think would put this map to shame and win in a landslide. Marco Rubio would EASILY win with this map. I’d project him at 320 EV’s and a serious shot of sweeping the entire Southwest (including NV). But he won’t run. I think some calls to his office are in order here. The other individual is Bobby Jindal. Everybody that wants to marginalize him for his 2009 speech obviously doesn’t know the man or seen him talk before or campaign. And yet, he won’t run either.
It’s still early, but this stuff is a lot of fun to analyze. Thanks NavyVet.
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