Posted on 12/30/2010 6:38:56 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
the entire scenario is predicated on the idea that the Chinese mainland is a sanctuary and that China's DF21 ASBM is R E A L.
Neither is true.
Several problems with this.
FIRST, they assume the United States actually responds to what the Chinese are doing.
With Dear Reader in the White House, the chances are very good that he will order US forces to STAND DOWN, and let the Chinese resolve the “Internal matter” themselves.
The mainland was a sanctuary in the korean war and the vietnam war. Why not a taiwan war too?
“Custer was a fancy-boy fool who’s ego got his troopers needlessly slaughtered at his last battle.”
Perhaps, but that same bravado prevented disaster at Gettysburg, Won numerous Civil-War battles, and, if you recall, the Indians still lost the Plains War...
Ooooh...can’t wait!
Great, well good luck to you and I know a lot of people out there will be looking forward to the day it is released. Keep us updated.
Because the scenario involves Firing on a US carrier and attacking US air bases in the region.
The entire growing sense that somehow China has gotten one over on us with this system is baed on this statement and smoke and mirrors.
The Chinese have simply announced this system, but not one operational test has been observed or announced. The Chinese have a huge technological obstacles to overcome to develop and field such a system.
They do not have the satellite system in place to find the carrier, track it, or communicate with long distance assetss that might do so.
They would be launching from great distance and the carrier will have moved miles by the time the missile arrives on target so it will need a acquisition and targeting capability of its own that the chinese have not demonstrated.
Then, and finally, it will be going against the teeth of the US AEGIS System, the very greatest strength of a carrier battle group's defenses. While the Chinese have only talked about their capability and done research on land, the US Navy has demonstrated the exact capability of shooting down just these types of missiles at sea once they get close to and target our vessels.
So, this great threat is more manufactured than real at this point. Repeat something often enough with enough offiandom and people start to believe it, despite the lack of any real evidence.
With such proganda they can change spending and our thinking when it probably does not need to change at all.
The PLAN is a growing threat, make no mistake. And they are developing and fielding a lot of new vessels and systems. but there is no evidence that they have mastered what they need to produce this system..which would be a significant threat, but due to AEGIS, not a game ender.
Good points. Also needs to be mentioned, its only a matter of time before the CG missile defense goes to directed energy, perhaps a decade. Then, it wont matter how fast the missile goes, it’s nothing compared to speed-of-light...
Agree or not, it's worth the read.
Part of Sun Tsu's way with any warfare...deception.
Now, however, having studied what their Navy is doing for a number of years I can say that there is a lot of meat there. More and more systems are their own and they are not that bad. Not up to US standards or capabilities by a long shot...but growing none the less and worthy of taking note of and being prepared for...particularly in the waters within the 1st island chain.
Consider in WW II, we capped all Army/Marine infantry units at 89 divisions. Hitler, outnumbered badly, invaded Russia with about 127; and at any given time the Russians could put 200 divisions in the field. So we have quite a history of putting a lot of resources into firepower in general and the navy in particular.
What we are building are very modern, very powerful vessels far ahead of the technology, efficiency, and fire power curve.
Within the next five to ten years we are going to see directed energy weapons used for close in defense and rail guns used for offense.
Take the two extremes, and the truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Also, no one can maintain an economy at 10%+ growth for decade on end, uninterruptible. It’s very artificial...look at our past, filled with boom and bust cycles, those busts were probably beneficial long term, to clean house. The Chinese, by artificially propping up their economy (building dozens empty cities etc) only delay e inevitable and make it more painful.
~$ /usr/games/wargames
Would you like to play a game? yes
A strange game.
The only winning move is
not to play.
Modern China has nothing to do with communism. It’s a super capitalistic autocrathy like modern russia. If you’ve got money and power you can buy everything. They have all their values on sale.
“There is zero chance that the US will fight to save Taiwan, and this has been true for many years.”
This is one of the dark sides of the Reagan era. Reagan choose china over taiwan in 1984.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,951046-2,00.html
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