Obama stands by 'Recovery Summer'-will be offering a new package of ideas on the economy next week

The Hill ^ | 9/3/2010 | Jordan Fabian

[Qbert]

Hopefully, these questions will be asked coming next January...

[Qbert]

Yep. And I think he's back on vacation yet again.

[nathanbedford]

I think we have just barely escaped a double-dip and I think that we are going into a Japan type muddle. That means that the worst is over. It does not mean that employment will improve soon. It means that Barack Obama has heaped such staggering load of debt on generations of Americans that we will be swimming against the tide, laboring as my parents did to emerge from the great depression. They bought a home in 1938 which today is worth somewhere between three quarters and $1 million. In those days it cost them $7,800.

They were terribly worried about making those mortgage payments so they doubled down on the payments. That is what America is doing now on our credit cards, on our corporate balance sheets, and, yes, on our mortgages when they are not underwater.

It takes a long time to lift this burden. But, as I have posted time after time, it is a disservice to our readers, to conservatism, and to our reputation, to see economics through a political filter. Even worse is it to judge the market through a political prism. George Soros got to be a billionaire by going the other way. Anyone who invests on the basis of his political instincts is a fool. George Soros is evil but he is not a fool, neither should we be.

The market, like the Holy Spirit, is no respecter of persons or politics. It is a giant mistake to conflate politics with finance. One must maintain an open mind, free of political prejudices, when predicting markets. Keynesians do not maintain an open mind. Milton Friedman, on the other hand, is the essence of the open mind. Nevertheless, Friedman in academia is despised and John Maynard Keynes is holy writ.

Unemployment is a laging indicator. My suspicion is that we are coming to the end of the starker losses in employment, that picture will now stabilize, but the economy as a whole will not recover vigorously, but languidly.

Politics keys off of the unemployment statistics. But that is a whole different matter from the course of the economy. As a lagging indicator it is like trying to analyze the market by looking at the rear view mirror.

[Poison Pill]

we are coming to the end of the starker losses in employment, that picture will now stabilize, but the economy as a whole will not recover vigorously, but languidly.

I think you have that right. Politicians are the ultimate followers. I will be interesting to see what direction the electorate pulls them in November. In the mean time, flat is the new up.

[WyvernAK]

The only thing we “recovered” this summer was oil.

[LasVegasMac]

Iceburgs? Not my concern!

Light all the boilers and make maximum speed!

[Qbert]

“we are coming to the end of the starker losses in employment, that picture will now stabilize, but the economy as a whole will not recover vigorously, but languidly.”

Agree with the latter part, but most economists believe that 2.5% GDP growth is necessary to keep the unemployment rate from rising- Q2 was revised down to 1.6%. Not to mention that the adult population grew by 2M since last year (and of course, there are those dreadful U6 numbers...)

I posted this earlier today (explains a lot of this):

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2583145/posts

[ronnie raygun]

So misunderstood! he meant next summer not this summer! silly

[nathanbedford]

Thank you for posting that, I agree with it entirely.

The problem of employment might very well be a chronic one. As I am sure you are aware, a recession is defined, or normally is defined, as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So we might have many quarters of positive growth which are not robust enough to counter the employment problem, as you point out.

If a Republican president were to say that the economy is improving while unemployment numbers stagnated, he would be excoriated in the media. That is probably not the case for this president.

I think it is clear that the electorate will repudiate Obama's spending schemes this November. Assuming the Republicans take control of the House at least, the question is, will Obama be able, Harry Truman like, to pin the blame on the Republicans for the lagging unemployment statistics?

All of this is more than of merely academic interest or even speculation over political possibilities, this has to do with the very tricky business of climbing out of the mess we are in. A daunting climb that admits of very little margin for misstep. Therefore, it is vital that we do not deceive ourselves, that we do conflate unemployment with the economy, that we are clear in our definitions, and we do not permit Obama to demagogue the issues.

[Poison Pill]

most economists believe that 2.5% GDP growth is necessary to keep the unemployment rate from rising

I think society is beginning to come to terms with something that is going to be painful and drag on for a while. Many people are over-employed or over educated for the jobs they are best suited for. Politicians and the education industrial complex pushed this for their own benefit. But you don't need a 4 year $ 100,000 college degree to be a clerk. Thinning out the office herd helps in the short run as it increases cash flow which will eventually be used for growth. I expect employment numbers to ease but I think that will happen as folks turn to jobs they previously would have considered "beneath" them. Also, a turn away from expensive 4 year degrees means they will earn money sooner and be productive in the economy longer.

[upchuck]

I stole this pic from Drudge because it perfectly depicts nobama's claim of "We're moving in the right direction."

Mush for brains idiot.

Note: If you decide to use this, be aware that there are two pics, left and right.

[sheik yerbouty]

“Beelzebama”..

[Allegra]

“Beelzebama”..

I like that!

[Allegra]

"I don't regret having the notion hallucination that we are moving forward because of the steps really awesome drugs that we have taken," Obama said in response to a question after he offered comments on the latest unemployment figures.

[mcshot]

I’ve been wondering if there could have a massive “get the hell out of our Country” rally without being machined gunned by loyal alphabet security forces?

[RetSignman]

[”I don’t regret the notion that we are moving forward because of the steps that we have taken,”]

At some point, EVERYONE will have to finally admit that this country is being run by an absolute fool.

[celtic gal]

As that fat woman Rosie O’Doughnut said....he's
Delusiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiionallllllllllllll.

[Howie66]

I just wish that Imam Obama would stand in front of our troops.

[Smokeyblue]

You can always count on Obama to double down. His narcissism wouldn’t allow it to be any other way.

[Son House]

Wrecking more lives than drugs and alcohol