Posted on 06/05/2009 6:13:30 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
In my case, and others I guess, I got tired of earning .015% on my 401k money market fund and decided to take another plunge in stocks. Of the people I worked with on my last job almost all of them saw their 401k’s shink by 30-50% last year, so while I earned almost nothing from my money market at least I kept my equity.
In April when I noticed that stocks were rising I finally got the courage to jump in again and so far it has resulted in a modest YTD gain of 5.5% but I have to admit, I’m nervous. At the first real sign of a downturn in the market I’m probably going to take the money and run, probably.
Zombies on Skateboards That When They Open Their Mouths, Out Come BIG DOBERMANN PINSCHERS, That When They Bark, Bark Out Killer Bees With Pit Bull Hemmorhoid Rabies.
I find it edifying to look at what happened with the Dow from 1929 to WWII. The bottom was reached only after a few faux bull markets — designed, it almost seems, by someone meaning to wring every last dollar out of investors.
Jehovah’s Witnesses!
With pamphlets!
By the way, are we sure that's not "DOBERMANNS PINSCHER?"
Or perhaps the ultimate “Dead Cat bounce?”
I think you’re correct. All of this access money the fed is handing out has to go somewhere. We’re on the road to some nasty inflation.
Second, the markets are leading indicators by approximately six to twelve months.
Third, a smart investor buys on doom and gloom and sells on euphoria. Based upon the doom and gloom on this thread alone, a smart investor would be justified in buying into the market now.
Fourth, the fact that we are currently experiencing a cyclical bull market doesn't change that fact that we are in a long term secular bear market that started in March, 2000. During this time period, there has been been two cyclical bear markets with average declines of about 50% and 60%, respectively, in the S & P 500, and between the two cyclical bear markets, there was a cyclical bull market that resulted in gain of 95% of the S&P 500. We are now in the second cyclical bull market of this long-term, secular bear market.
Fifth, economies don't start and stop with the flip of a switch. The 0bama deficit will produce hyperinflation, but that probably won't happen for another 18 to 24 months —after the economy strengthens. That will also mark the end of the current cyclical bull market and the start of the next cyclical bear market within this long-term secular bear market.
I heard that bankrupt General Motors was taken off the Dow Jones index. I think GM was such a drag on the index that by removing it, the index readjusted upwards. Also, the infusion of all the bailout money has bumped the market up temporarily. I don’t see any fundamental improvements in the economy however. In fact, I expect it to get much worse.
I would tend to agree. So, what is the health of the "real economy". Thanks.
That is how I see it exactly! However, it's NOT happening. Somehow they are breaking all of the rules and winning.
The results of what Obama, starting with Bush and the Democrats have created, has never been done before.
..............
this part is true. the feds monetary policy has never been done before. its an experiment. so far it seems to be working.
what has everyone up at arms is the democrats fiscal policy. why? because it has been tried before and it has never worked. ie you can’t tax and spend your way out of hard times. you have to grow the tax base.
Sounds like the ol’ Pump and Dump to me. That said, I cannot find a single serious person who isn’t envisioning a large crash in the fall.
I’m going to start buying Canadian Maple Leafs!
Perhaps the economy wasn't nearly so bad as Bush and Paulson and then Obama presented it. Sure, it's a recession. Those of us with a little mileage know about those things. Heck, we know about stagflation, wage and price controls, no gas at any price and an 18% mortgage. A recession is business as usual but to those that expect government to take all the sharp edges off of life it's the end of the world.
There is/was is a BOATLOAD of money that was sucked out of the markets. It eventually has to go somewhere, it won't sit in money markets and 90 day T-bills forever.
The "government" has printed a boatload of money. Heck, they're giving raw materials (money) to banks for FREE. True, this will have a long term inflationary effect but equities are often a good hedge against inflation.
The market is forward looking, usually about 16-18 months.
While I believe in markets eventually getting it right there's a lot of "left behind" action. People don't want to miss something, they see it going up and they join the herd.
Despite Obama's obvious attempt to kill captalism we've managed through FDR, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Clinton and Bush I & II and we're still on our feet despite their best attempts to kill the economy. Eventually one of them will be successful but history shows that we adapt to all kinds of "stuff".
Many indicators, other than employment, are looking better than they did the first of the year. Unemployment is always a lagging indicator.
Don't even have an opinion on if the rally is "real" or if the economy is "recovering". On the market side my guess off the git-go would have been that we'd need to go back and retest some lows but that didn't happen. Perhaps we will or perhaps the market oversold so much on the idea that it was another great depression that the previous low was totally unreasonable.
Totally for what it's worth.
My portfolio is with Merril Lynch. You mean stocks have been rising? Cause last I looked, I lost about 25%.
No kidding. That's why I asked the OP the question I did.
I just looked at my latest Merril Lynch statement. It definitely doesn't look like it's "soaring."
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