Gallup Final Estimate: O 55 - M 44

Gallup ^ | 11/02/08 | Gallup

[goldstategop]

I don't where Rove gets that from. Certainly not from any of data since it unreliable. The polls that predicted an Obama victory during the primaries turned out to be the opposite after voters went to the polls. No way OH goes for the One and if it does - the election is over.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[angcat]

I look to you for reassurance!

[kesg]

Gallup had this a 2 point race a week ago, now it is an 11 point race. Pew had it a 15 point race just DAYS ago, now they have it pegged at 6.

And don't forget TIPP and Battleground, which as of at least yesterday (I haven't yet see Battleground today) have the race within the margin of error with lots of undecideds. So does Rasmussen for that matter, if you adjust his party weights slightly to reflect the actual historical realities of how people vote in Presidential elections.

Someone is right and someone is wrong. Or maybe they all are.

[kesg]

R2000 (Kos) poll is out, and Obama leads by 4 in the daily sample, by 6 in aggregate. That’s the second daily sample in a row in which the lead is down to 4, and they show McCain +15 with white voters, probably this number will go up to +16 tomorrow.

Again, in 2004 Bush won the white vote 58-41. That 15 point lead could very well be 17 points of better, given the margin of error for whatever sample that poll used.

Keep in mind that each point of the white vote is worth about .77% of a candidate's overall support. It is easily the most important demographic after party ID.

[jveritas]

Let us win this one for our beloved America.

Vote McCain/Palin. Please ask your family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues to vote for McCain/Palin.

[floridagopvoter]

Yes, McCain has to be in the 2% range within an averaging of all polls. I don’t subscribe to the blowout numbers Gallup has and Zogby will be showing tomorrow morning (a huge McCain day falls off Zogby tonight.) But then again, IBD/TIPP seems at the other end of the spectrum on the low end, also not really believable without any other poll supporting it (GWU/BG is now at 6%.)

It is simply more likely that an averaging of all recent polls, which shows about a 5% to 6% race, is more on the mark. Remember, for a race to be at +6% it really only requires a 3% shift of the electorate from an even outcome, which is not exactly an unreasonable assumption, given that the bad state of the economy is blamed on Bush and Republicans by an unreasonable 2 to 1 margin.

[wardaddy]

I’m not sure.

I would feel better if there were a few with McCain up in the mix too

[wardaddy]

part of what is going on here is that there are exponentially more polls even than since 2004

[jackmercer]

The same could have been said about FDR. The only Democrat to get above 50% before FDR-1932 was Samuel Tilden and that was in 1876...56 years previous to 1932. But economic circumstances were a bit out of the ordinary in 1932. We have economic circumstances now that are a bit out of the ordinary as well.

[wfu_deacons]

“The same could have been said about FDR. The only Democrat to get above 50% before FDR-1932 was Samuel Tilden and that was in 1876...56 years previous to 1932. But economic circumstances were a bit out of the ordinary in 1932. We have economic circumstances now that are a bit out of the ordinary as well.”

In 1932 the unemployment rate was 23.6%, hardly analogous to the present economic situation.