Posted on 10/17/2008 11:19:16 AM PDT by Chet 99
If McCain (we) pull out this election, Joe should never have to worry about finding work ever again. Joe, along with a brilliant performance at the last debate and the Smith fundraiser by McCain, saved this campaign.
We are all Joe!!
And I agree, I would love to see Joe at the podium delivering whoop ass to the NYT.
As we all know, polls are dynamic... Absent any significant external event, there shouldn't be any significant movement; however, when we do have events, like debates, major gaffes, market turmoil... you'll see significant movement...
As it pertains to national vs. state polls... The state polls are stale... If they polled all states at the same time that they poll on a national level, you would get, roughly the same outcome, in composite (assuming it's done fairly)... In this case, pointing to the states, which were done days or a week ago, at the height of the market problem, indicates the data is pretty much useless...
Any state that was done DURING the past 3 days is relevant. It would capture the tightening in the polls... So, on average, if McCain goes up 3% in national polls, on average, tack on 3% to the state polls... (in battleground states, add 3%, in red states, tack on 5-6, in blue states, maybe 1 or 2.)...
So... the reason state polls lag is simple... they were done BEFORE the national poll... If Ohio was polled today, then for THAT state, the state poll is more reliable than a national poll... It's all a matter or timing
I hope that didn't confuse you further. It's akin to saying the overall market's down the past couple of weeks, but then citing a price for a stock from 2 weeks ago... Once the Stock market goes down, you can't point to a stock price from the past... If you don't re-price that security, you'd rely on the broader market as a gauge.
Saw that. Sweet, and he was down there today
As the old phrase goes... “a rising tide lifts all boats”... Some (3 point gain nationally yeilds about 6 points in red states, 3 in battleground, and 1 in blue) more than others.
Has anybody noticed that there’s a full out blitz by the MSM with stories saying the game is over!
There was an AP/Yahoo story also that said it wasn’t good for McCain, yet the same poll had him only 2 points behind!
What the hell is going on?!!!
I am so sorry everybody, I got the wrong Attorney General info, here is the correct one...
Survey USA, I believe?
There is no way Obama takes FL. It will NEVER HAPPEN”
even better!
He’s not ahead by anything as no votes have been counted yet. The polls have been changing with the direction of the wind in this election cycle.
I heard of an Internal McCain campaign poll showing McCain up +7 in FL
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