Posted on 09/12/2008 4:37:53 AM PDT by sunmars
That would be great. Maybe McCain should come out in favor of Scottish Law. ;)
I agree. I think that Obama will really only have strength in Philadelphia proper, and may even have some trouble getting a lot of votes in the NE part of the city. He will most likely not do well in normally Dem areas like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Johnstown, and Erie. And though he may still possibly win it, I suspect he will do much poorer in Pittsburgh than Dems usually do.
The West is definitely in play. Oregon, Washington and New Hampshire are prime candidates for the ‘Bradley Effect’ to play out. If McCain is within the MOE, I think this means he’s leading by 1-3 points.
No one will speak it, but those states have very low black populations. In states like NJ and MI the effect is probably cancelled out by record turnout of black voters. If Obama loses the western toss-ups, it’s over. IF NJ/MD/DE etc. begin to creep towards the MOE, it signals a McCain landside.
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