Posted on 09/10/2008 2:18:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 12, 2008
...Large category two Hurricane Ike moving west-northwestward toward
the northwestern Gulf Coast...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to Baffin Bay Texas. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border... including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 100 am CDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near latitude 26.4 north...longitude 91.1 west or about 405 miles... 650 km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas and about 300 miles ...485 km...southeast of Galveston Texas.
Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 12 hours or so...with a turn to the northwest expected to begin late today.
On the forecast track...the center of Ike will be very near the Upper Texas coast by late today. However...because Ike is a very large tropical cyclone...weather will deteriorate along the coastline early today...long before the center reaches the coast.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours or so...and Ike could become a major hurricane before reaching the coast.
The aircraft data indicate that Ike remains a large cyclone.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185
km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend
outward up to 265 miles...425 km.
An oil platform in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico recently reported sustained winds of 78 mph...126 km/hr...at an elevation of 400 feet.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 957 mb...28.26 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes landfall... extending a greater than usual distance from the center due to the large size of the cyclone.
Surge flooding of up to 25 feet could occur at the heads of bays. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous waves...can be expected within the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast.
Above normal tides in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should gradually subside over the next day or so.
Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches along the middle and Upper Texas coast and over portions of southwestern Louisiana...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas.
Repeating the 100 am CDT position...26.4 N...91.1 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...957 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 400 am CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Hiya, Count...
We have ‘special weather advisories’ up here in Mobile for some lively weather from the outer rain bands...
Thought I was gonna get to be ‘just a spectator’ for this one, but it’s lookin’ like my popcorn might get wet...
This is one BIG storm.....
FYI to others here - KHOU is going to stay with live coverage for the duration. Stay safe everybody. Prayers for all in Ike's path.
Hey there,Ike,,,
This storm is gunna get a piece of All of us,,,(Fuel Cost).
Jumped $.20 per gallon here today,,,
I reeeally hate to think what could happen to Galveston,,,
Again!!!
My GrandPappy was in Houston in 1900,,,(sellin’ cattle),,,
I grew up hearin’ what happened there,,,Ain’t Happy,,,
Ya’ll be safe...
” I reeeally hate to think what could happen to Galveston,,, “
I’m hoping that this is one that won’t live up to the hype...
(Ike’s Second Law of Media: “There is an inverse correlation between the level of hype and the significance of the actual event...”)
TANKS for the update,Star,,,
From what I see on the NOAA sat-pics,this storm is rite on
the forecast-points,,,(sigh)...:0/
Sad to say .. yes. I pray all who must
leave for their own safety, have not
been bull headed or indifferent about this guy.
Live Streaming KVUE ~ Austin
http://www.kvue.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes&live=yes
Fox Houston Live
http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/
Houston TranStar Traffic Cams
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv/transtar/by_roadway.html?mnu=freeway&rd=IH-45_North
I’m hoping that this is one that won’t live up to the hype...
(Ike’s Second Law of Media: “There is an inverse correlation between the level of hype and the significance of the actual event...”)
~~~
Roger Dat!,,,
Hopefully this will turn out to be just a DUD,,,(hype),,,
But,,,Storm-Surge(20’+?) + Tide(3’?) + Wave Height(20’+?) =
Will over-top that 17’ sea-wall by ???????,,,
I guess we’ll find out the Hard Way in 24hrs. or so...
” I guess we’ll find out the Hard Way in 24hrs. or so... “
As big as this storm is, the effects are going to be apparent long before the ‘official’ landfall...
By the Bye - according to the weather channel a few minutes ago, IKE’s pressure is dropping, and there are signs of eyewall formation....
bm
Not getting this, unless it’s just too late.
~~~
Houston decides to stare down Ike instead of leave (31 mins. ago)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike
Sad to say .. yes. I pray all who must
leave for their own safety, have not
been bull headed or indifferent about this guy.
~~~
Amen,,,
Already getting an east wind in NW Louisiana,,,
Ain’t much yet but the flow has shifted,,,(5 mph)
Sure gunna be a Mess!...:0/
Prayers on my pillow for all ..
God’s protection.
Just checked Atlantic Floater 4,,,
Hard to tell,,,
Maybe forming a new eye ?,,,
Still looks like Galveston will get the eye-strike...
Hope everybody is safe...I'm relieved that we are.
Not getting this, unless it’s just too late.
~~~
Maybe just TOO many people to evac from that area,,,?
Where would they go ?
IIRC that would be about 4 million people,,,
Food,Fuel ,,,?
At best,,,It’s a Krap Shoot...
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