It is not unchanged. The lead has gone from 4 points to 1 point since yesterday. The link has the daily numbers. He was behind 5 points on Wednesday. The poll is basically tied now. This is a good sign for McCain.
The DNC convention had no surprises, and Obama’s speech was unexceptional, and they still got a small bounce from the exposure.
OTOH, the Pubbie convention had a HUGE upside surprise from Palin, and frankly, a nice upside surprise from the McCain speech.
I expect a solid poll bounce in the upcoming days once the fence-sitters and unmotivated voters start migrating to the Right.
Why do people care so much about polls. Polls are done to come out with a specific outcome.
58 Percent Dissatisfied With Direction of Country;
57 Percent Say War With Iraq Has Not Made U.S. Safer
46 Percent Say Bush Closer to Their View on Gay Marriage
NEW YORK, July 31 2004 /PRNewswire/ — In a two-way trial heat between the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters, Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted Thursday and Friday. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42 percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.
In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin “bounce” in the three- way heat and a two-point margin “bounce” in the two-way heat.
Looks like they are tied to me. I’d bet large money that if they are tied going into the election that Obama loses by a significant margin on election day.
Going into the weekend after the DNC Obama had zero bounce. The polls reflecting a bounce did not show until the following Tuesday, when if my magic he was up 8 or 9 points.
We have multiple variables at work confounding the results right now. I think we need to wait for the numbers released next Thursday and Friday -- but the trend is our friend.
It may be telling that this morning Fox news had a segment on copying the Sarah Palin hairstyle and there was a news report of a run on Sarah Palin eyeglass frames.
These polls are loony! One day he is up by 9 points with a 50% share, and of course, the MSM puts it on every news program and it is the top story. Now it is a dead heat again a short week or two later.
Polls are worthless. We all know it will come down to Electoral votes in about 6-8 key states.
JoMa
The real question is...
What are the poll numbers in states with lots of Hunters and Hockey Moms? States like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Colorado?
I hope a serious Republican Convention bounce shows up next week, but who knows. I wonder, though, if even a fairly honest pollster like Rasmussen will know how to handle a Palin Storm (if it is occurring, and I hope it is). Will he be underestimating the number of small-town voters who will now actually vote or the number of voters who will now call themselves Republicans? Maybe there is no Palin Storm, and maybe it will end quickly if it now exists; but if it does exist, pollsters may have a rather hard time figuring out how to massage their raw data to account for it. Jay Cost, where are you?
I had said last week when we saw Obama jump out to a small lead (8 pts) that there was no need to panic, McCain would get his bounce. He is getting it. It will end around Monday with mccain/PALIN over Osama bin Biden by around 2% in most polls.
We won’t see the full effects until Wednesday.
It’s a 3 day rolling average and weekends are tough on Republicans.
Honestly, I think it’ll take a “Bunny suit” type of gaffe (or a scandal that the press *actually* reports) on the part of O-blah-blah Hussein to put the final nail in his coffin.
The more accurate polls will be out by Wednesday. Another interesting thing I heard on the BO interview was that they poll from 700-1000 people by phone. With caller ID, how many people don’t bother to answer if the number comes up Unknown?