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Ready for the Oil Bubble?
Ft. Worth Star-Telegram ^ | May 21, 2008 | Ed Wallace

Posted on 05/22/2008 5:51:24 AM PDT by wildbill

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To: twntaipan

>> T. Boone Pickens is pumping billions in to wind farms

T. Boone Pickens has done the math, and concluded that wind farms (with their massive gubmint subsidies and tax breaks) will be a profitable business — for him, that is.

I wouldn’t conclude too much from that about T. Boone Pickens knowledge (or lack thereof) about oil price futures.


21 posted on 05/22/2008 6:29:22 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (La Raza hates white folks. And John McCain loves La Raza!)
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To: wildbill
This is a delicate way of saying the oil speculators are driving up prices beyond the normal effects of supply and demand.

That makes alot of sense. But then why did Bush ask him to produce more?

22 posted on 05/22/2008 6:33:30 AM PDT by Lijahsbubbe
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To: wildbill

Maybe I’ve missed it but I would bet that mr Soros is involved somehow..funny this problem comes up the summer before an election two times in a row..???...mmmmmmm....adjusting tin foil, but only slightly..LOL


23 posted on 05/22/2008 6:34:07 AM PDT by conservativehusker (GO BIG RED!!!!)
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To: Abathar
If Congress wants to investigate something they should look at any collusion between the two managements.

Oil future contract inflation is how Big Money (fascist and socialist based) is covering its losses from their sub prime fiasco. Congress wont seriously investigate because we have the best Congress Big Money could buy. IMHO.

24 posted on 05/22/2008 6:34:54 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: FunkyZero

... but then again, that is the million dollar question.

No...the billion dollar question!

You all are right, this is the mother of all bubbles and when it pops, the crude is going to splash everywhere.


25 posted on 05/22/2008 6:36:06 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: conservativehusker
...I would bet that mr Soros is involved somehow..funny this problem comes up the summer before an election two times in a row..???...mmmmmmm....adjusting tin foil, but only slightly..LOL

Oh your analysis may be spot on. If not Soros then some other RAT. I hope he loses billions in this little gamble.

26 posted on 05/22/2008 6:40:51 AM PDT by McGruff
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To: Lijahsbubbe
But then why did Bush ask him to produce more?

All part of the media game. There has to be a logical explanation for the dollar inflation of oil future prices. Big Money owns DC and the MSM. So they bash the House of Saud and bash the Oil Executives, while the real culprits (big money speculators) go untouched.

27 posted on 05/22/2008 6:41:52 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: theBuckwheat
” have observed that so many of the people I correspond with who were so quick to be happy when they could fret about a “housing bubble”, or previously an “asset bubble”, each having the mandatory “tipping point”, have not been nearly as interested in applying the same criteria to the rapid run-up in the price of oil and gasoline.”

...absolutely not (at least for me).

Let's pilfer Greenspan’s term...irrational exuberance. When home prices escalate 20% a year and “NO DOC” loans are granted and “interest only loans” were making up an ever increasing % of loans written, you have a bubble.

...And the run up in the price of crude, almost doubling without a doubling of demand would indicate something wholly irrational is going on.

Recent Bubble
Tech Stocks in the 90’s
Real-Estate and Commodities recent past years
Oil now!

See a pattern?

28 posted on 05/22/2008 6:44:49 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: twntaipan

I think Pickens is getting into water...as are a lot of other big corps.


29 posted on 05/22/2008 6:45:38 AM PDT by lonestar
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To: mr_hammer
You all are right, this is the mother of all bubbles and when it pops, the crude is going to splash everywhere.

Hope it pops by this weekend. I'm going to be doing a 1000+ mile road trip to see my grandkids in my V-8 SUV.

30 posted on 05/22/2008 6:46:09 AM PDT by TheRightGuy (ERROR CODE 018974523: Random Tagline Compiler Failure)
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To: justa-hairyape
...all about the same time of the Bear Sterns bail out.

This run up in crude is siphoning money out of the people
s pockets, only to refill the lost funds from the housing debacle. The timing is too co-incendental. At least in my opinion.

31 posted on 05/22/2008 6:49:39 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: wildbill

I asked a couple of Bankers what they were doing with Deposits now they had cut down on Mortgage Lending. One said they were putting it into Commodities. I suggested that was speculative. He didn’t seem to think so.

So I believe the surplus Deposit money is driving up all commodity prices, not just oil, (and it’s an endless spiral cos the cash circulates from Depositor to Bank to Commodity to Depositor). The rules need to be changed so Banks can’t use Deposits to speculate.


32 posted on 05/22/2008 6:49:42 AM PDT by plenipotentiary
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To: TheRightGuy

I hear ya. Just filled my boat up (100 gallons)...doh!


33 posted on 05/22/2008 6:50:51 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: justa-hairyape
All part of the media game. There has to be a logical explanation for the dollar inflation of oil future prices. Big Money owns DC and the MSM. So they bash the House of Saud and bash the Oil Executives, while the real culprits (big money speculators) go untouched.

Add to that scenario that this is also a national election cycle in the US. What better way to sway the minds of the voting public!!!!

34 posted on 05/22/2008 6:51:09 AM PDT by ErieGeno
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To: TheRightGuy

At least we have a robust supply albeit at an outrageous price.
About 6 months of President O’Bammy and a filibuster proof congress and we’ll be back to 55 mph and gas lines.


35 posted on 05/22/2008 6:54:15 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: mr_hammer
Here is an article that may explain what is going on. The author is a bit controversial, but his points may be relevant. Excerpt from The Market Oracle. I also posted this excerpt on a couple of late night threads.

As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today's $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population.

36 posted on 05/22/2008 6:56:21 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: wildbill

It has never been this easy to be a daytrader. Open a futures account. Fund it. Buy metals and oil futures on every single pullback. Take profits.


37 posted on 05/22/2008 6:56:52 AM PDT by montag813
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To: mr_hammer
You all are right, this is the mother of all bubbles and when it pops, the crude is going to splash everywhere..

...and so will Wall Street speculators that get caught with their pants down when they hit the pavement from 35 stories up. Call me insensitive, but I'm going to LMAO if and when this happens.

38 posted on 05/22/2008 6:59:27 AM PDT by AngryJawa ({IDPA, NRA} All Hail John Moses Browning)
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To: wildbill

If this is really true, the speculators need to be thrown UNDER the jail and their families put into debtors’ prison.

This profiteering is not just fattening their wallets using our money — which is bad enough and worthy of harsh punishment. It’s emboldening and enriching the people that would kill us. And that my friends is treason.


39 posted on 05/22/2008 6:59:44 AM PDT by VictoryGal (Never give up, never surrender!)
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To: wildbill

If some traders wanted to do this and since the Futures Market is a paper trade, the price could be manupulated down.
One way would be for several groups of traders put in buys for a example about of $90.00 per barrel and then another group sells that paper for $90.00 that morning. Late that same day, it is done again but for example down to $85.00 per barrel.

The next day put in the same buy for $85.00 and then trade that paper to the same opposing group. A few hours later, lower the buy price to $80.

If enough paper trading is flashing across everyone’s radar, a panic sell off of paper could result.

79 posted on Thursday, May 22, 2008 8:16:17 AM by Deaf Smith (Don’t pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight he’ll just kill you.- John Steinbeck)


40 posted on 05/22/2008 7:02:13 AM PDT by Deaf Smith
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