Don't Think Black Voters Won't Vote for McCain

TheRoot ^ | 4/27/08 | Keith Reed

[fight_truth_decay]

The Clinton Firewall

Recall the Race Chasm graph (above and link) published in In These Times a few weeks back. It shows how Hillary Clinton has been winning states whose populations are above 7 percent and below 17 percent black. If Democrats nominate a candidate who isn't well supported by the black community, and that community ends up not turning out to vote in the general election in strong numbers, those states in the Race Chasm like New Jersey and Pennsylvania could flip to the Republicans, and other states in the Race Chasm like Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Virginia could remain in the Republican column (Author NOTE: I'm in no way saying that Clinton cannot eventually rebuild her support among black voters in a general election, just like I don't believe Obama cannot strengthen his white support in a general election - all I'm saying is that Clinton's current weakness among black voters is at least as important a factor in this election as Obama's current weakness among some white demographics).

The Clinton campaign organized 20 major Democratic Party financiers to release a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi upbraiding her for appearing on ABC News and saying, “If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic Party.” According to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, the contributors who signed the letter have given a combined $23.6 million to Democrats since 1999. These mega-donors, clearly wielding their financial heft as an implied threat, claimed that Pelosi had taken an “untenable position” by merely suggesting superdelegates should avoid overturning the results of democratic primaries and caucuses.

It is a standard primary tactic: Launch a line of attack—in this case, the “Wright controversy”—and then claim the attack will be used by Republicans to defeat an opponent—in this case Obama—should he become the general election candidate. Of course, it doesn’t hurt Clinton’s cause that, close to half of the superdelegates are white, according to The Politico.

William Safire documented 24 years ago in a New York Times column, the term “Democrat Party” was created by Republican leaders in the mid-20th century to imply that their opponents—many bigoted segregationists and machine pols—were, in fact, undemocratic.

From The Clinton Firewall. Recent polls included on all candidates regarding Black voters.

[Albion Wilde]

Here's the entire graphic:

[latina4dubya]

I don’t agree. I believe that they’ll react the same way they always do. Don’t underestimate the tribal revenge template that we’ve seen so often.

same here... they will end up voting DEMOCRAT... like always... vote for McCain? no way...

[greccogirl]

I doubt this seriously. All this pandering to Hillary could end up blowing up in the faces of conservatives.

[XR7]

All this pandering to Hillary could end up blowing up in the faces of conservatives.

You mean like Rush Limbaugh and the white establishment is blamed for causing Obama to lose the nomination, riots ensue, liberal guilt brings out the masses to vote democRAT, etc., etc., ad nauseaum?

[hinckley buzzard]

On election day, should he be the democratic nomineee, we will see that many more than the liberal pundents expect recognixe the: THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA

I wonder. My guess is that racial pride will override any concerns about policy nuances or leftwing affiliations. If Obama is the nominee I expect he will get well over 90% of the Black vote.

[hinckley buzzard]

My biggest fear is a Hillary/Obama ticket!

Take a deep breath and try to relax. That ticket will never happen. And if by some sorcery the 'rats are stupid enough to try it they will get whupped bad in November.

[hinckley buzzard]

This will calm most blacks and/or most women. But not all. The net gain on this will be maybe 1-2% — which will suffice to win.

Not a chance. It won't work to have a woman and a black on the ticket no matter who they are. Reason is simple: there are 20% of voters who will not vote for any woman. There are another 20% of voters who will not vote for any black man. Most of these are 'rats.

The "dream ticket" starts out conceding half of the 'rat vote before you even begin to count republicans. McCain could run with Clarabell Clown and still win in a landslide..

[greccogirl]

No, I mean you might end up with Hillary.