LIVE THREAD - New Hampshire Primary

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[Khepri]

He’s already paid (allotted) for Kansas *after* Feb 5...

[Khepri]

ALL the candidates are flawed, hon.

Yes, I know that. I've said elsewhere here that Fred is McCain Lite, and it's said that he's the most conservative in the field with the possible exception of Duncan Hunter.

But Mitt has far more positives to offer than any of the others, the principle reason he has my support.

They ALL have positives..:) The problem is for some reason Mitt brings the highest *negative* rating along with him when going up against a Democrat.

Mitt came in second in Iowa the state that in addition to voting for Huckabee, also voted for Pat Robertson. That hardly shows that Mitt's unelectable, and has nothing to do with electability. It tells us far more about the voters in Iowa than it does about Mitt. That you draw such a conclusion from the Iowa caucus is laughably absurd.

The Iowa voters were largely evangelics who voted in a "anybody but Mitt" fashion (which I have said is a shame). It's sad, but true. I hardly need to tell you there are evangelicals outside of Iowa as well. That indeed does have everything to do with electablility and is hardly absurd. It's the "big elephant in the room" no conservatives want to admit because it reflects badly on them.

Mitt has not accomplished what he needed to early, and he's heading into what we have to conclude based on Iowa as "hostile territory", something akin to Fred running in NH...LOL

You people need to start thinking about the fact that Mitt has under-achieved so far and by all accounts now cannot overcome Rudy's big state, late game, strategy should that pan out. Mitt's early strategy did not do as well as he needed. Yes, he will go on, no doubt about that, but he's damaged goods now. Attrition will begin to erode him as the idea that he can't win sets in.

Frankly, Mitt shoulda played Rudy and Fred's big state late game stratgey in hindsight, cause he probably could have garnered enough votes elsewhere to beat him overall. Sadly, he didn't. He couldn't, because they both had national name recognition going in. He's in as big of trouble as Hillary would have been in had she lost NH too, and I think he's toast...he'll fight on but it's over. You're turn to deal with it....:)

[Khepri]

Awesome! Thanks for the link!!!

[JohnBovenmyer]

Nice map. Useful. Mitt should have a rally at Cowpens. A great place to rally an upset and a place that remembers when northerners were on the side of the South.

[JohnBovenmyer]

CNN has some interesting cross tabs on the NH vote here. They have favorable/unfavorable cross tabs on what voters for all 7 thought of the first 5. I wish they'd extended that down to Fred; it would have been interesting. For most of the breakdown of Fred's voters little could be said due to small sample size. There was one interesting breakdown. They asked each candidate's voter's which candidate they thought would be the strongest leader. Fred voters picked Rudy, not Fred. Not what I would have expected from view the many Fredhead posts here.

For a sometimes entertaining view, from space somewhere, of all the candidates check out Star Wars Guide to the Candidate The source isn't conservative but isn't humor free either. With one female and one dark skinned role to be played the assignments are interesting, and arguably correct.

[RightOnline]

Straw man. Independents can vote for whomever they choose. They do now. If evangelicals departed from the GOP en masse, they would have that same right. So......what’s your point? Can only vote for a Republican if you’re a party member?

[Khepri]

Oh bother....sigh....read my question again...you can leave, where else are you going to find a viable candidate?

You’ll end up voting for a Republican anyway, whether you’re in the party or not...strawman...lol Straw hat!

[irishjuggler]

Interesting. Thanks for the information regarding the Cougar Club. I notice that my previous post included a typo (the word “not” shouldn’t have been included, as the two men reportedly were both members of that organization).

[RightOnline]

You just aren’t paying attention, are you.......

Seems to be a common problem around here lately.

[Disturbin]

Did you catch Ted on Dennis Miller last week? Priceless!

http://fetch.noxsolutions.com/dm/mp3/TedNugent_010108.mp3

[Pikachu_Dad]

You may be correct. There was a huge increase in turnout for this election over 2004.

The increase in Democratic voters was 31%

Belknap 3,432 38%
Carroll 2,936 37%
Cheshire 4,009 27%
Coos 1,764 31%
Grafton 5,699 36%
Hillsborough 18,100 29%
Merrimack 7,136 26%
Rockingham 15,368 32%
Strafford 7,022 35%
Sullivan 2,384 31%
TOTALS 67,850 31%

The increase in Republican voters was 316%

Belknap 9,905 311%
Carroll 7,914 295%
Cheshire 8,681 297%
Coos 3,447 233%
Grafton 10,613 278%
Hillsborough 55,592 328%
Merrimack 20,180 254%
Rockingham 46,454 358%
Strafford 13,681 378%
Sullivan 4,970 260%
TOTALS 181,437 316%

[Pikachu_Dad]

Well if a scam was done, it was NOT done proportionally.

We need only look at the five counties of Coos, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Strafford where Hillary got over 41% of the vote.

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES
..................Clinton...Obama...Edw’ds...Rich’son... Others
Belknap..........37%.......37%.......19%.......4%.......3%.......100%
Carroll.............34%.......40%.......17%.......6%.......3%.......100%
Cheshire..........34%.......39%.......17%.......6%.......4%.......100%
Coos................42%.......29%.......22%.......5%.......3%.......100%
Grafton............32%.......45%.......16%.......5%.......3%.......100%
Hillsborough....42%.......35%.......16%.......4%.......2%.......100%
Merrimack.......36%.......38%.......17%.......6%.......3%.......100%
Rockingham.....42%.......35%.......17%.......4%.......3%.......100%
Strafford...........41%.......34%.......18%.......4%.......3%.......100%
Sullivan............36%.......40%.......17%.......5%.......3%.......100%
TOTALS..........39%.......37%.......17%.......5%.......3%.......100%

[BohDaThone]

there was no serious GOP contest in 2004 -- Bush as up for re-eklectuion -- so the huge GOP increase is no surprise. (In 2004, 95K out of 102K "undeclareds" took Dem ballots).

Your figures show that the Dem increase was quite similar across all the ocunties, which means that the "invisible buses" full of clinton voters had to have fanned out across the whole state

[BohDaThone]

why would you assume that a "scam" would only, or even primarily occur in areas that you won? That would only make sense if you assumed that there is a "true" vote that is exactly equal across all the counties. If you were looking for localized cheating, you would look for where you did MUCH better than expected, RELATIVE TO OTHER AREAS.

Instead, as Barone showed on his blog today, the Obama- CLinton pattern closely replicated the Bradley-Gore (and Hart-Mondale) pattern. Obama did best in upscale trendy areas, Clinton did best in Blue Collar and Industrial areas. The county pattern you displayed shows exactly that.

[Pikachu_Dad]

Invisible buses? They made the news. There was plenty of talk about Hillary busing in people for the campaign stops.

and no, the New Hampshire state numbers don’t show a ‘fan out across the state’ result. They show primarily a heavy increase in Hillsborough (18,100), Rockingham (15,368), and Strafford (7,022).

[Pikachu_Dad]

why would you assume that a "scam" would only, or even primarily occur in areas that you won?

U'm... that I won? Please, I was not even a candidate.

The analysis was on the counties that Hillary won by a margin that was the mirror image of Obama's expected winning percentage and the percentage that he won in Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack and Sullivan.

I did not 'assume' a "true" vote. I was saying that if we are going to look for localized cheating, we should only look in the counties that Hillary deviated significantly above her polling numbers in. Those counties are Coos, Hillsborough, Rockingham and Strafford.

If you are going to post about others blogs, please post a link so we can find them. By the way, his analysis would not hold water. The polls were all fairly accurate on the percentage turnout for all the other candidates. The main flier being Hillary getting an unexpected 9 point boost from somewhere.

[Pikachu_Dad]

Anyway, I don’t see why there is an assumption that they would take buses. It is a very short simple car trip.

The most likely places to look would be those that H pulled in the most votes.

The top three voting spots where she got the most votes are:

Salem Rockingham
2,869 votes for Hillary (51% Hillary 27% Obama)

Derry Rockingham
2,387 votes for Hillary (45% Hillary 31% Obama)

Merrimack Hillsborough
2,325 votes for Hillary (43% H 35% O)

She also heavily beat her standard percentage.

[Pikachu_Dad]

The standard candle should be Edwards. He ran in both races, so we have a measure of how he should do in each county.

Deviations of Edwards votes from average votes in 2004

Belknap 1.0%
Carroll -1.7%
Cheshire -0.5%
Coos -0.4%
Grafton -2.5%
Hillsborough 0.5%
Merrimack 0.6%
Rockingham -0.2%
Strafford 0.9%
Sullivan -0.1%
TOTALS 0.0%

[Pikachu_Dad]

The next spots to check after that would be:

Hudson, Bedford, Goffstown, Pelham, Milford, NashuaWard5, ManchesterWard1, NashuaWard1 in Hillsborough county.

Hooksett in Merrimack

Londenderry, Hampton, Exeter and Windham in Rockingham

[DooDahhhh]

I despise Hitlary; but after reading Obama;s history, he would be a far scarier choice. He was a Muslim and then not a Muslim (that would not set well for his political career). He is a slick talker with 0 substance (Americans like the rhetoric and popularity). If you do not think that the Mussies couldn;t analize what we vote for and come up with a charismatic speaker to get their foot in the door in the US, I think we are all fooling ourselves. I am not saying that this is God's truth, but it is too suspicious for me to vote for this empty suit.